Who will win the Senate?

Who would win the Senate today?

Chance of winning control

FiveThirtyEight

Democrats

50.7%

Republicans

49.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

D

R

The vice president breaks ties in the Senate. is the probability of a 50-50 split in the Senate with a Democratic vice president. is the probability of a 50-50 split with a Republican vice president.

# How the odds have changed

We'll be updating our Senate forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.

# Who’s ahead in each Senate race

Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each race. Here are the expected margins of victory in each state. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Key

Average

80% chance outcome falls in this range

Show all states

The balance of power in the next Senate

In each simulation of the Senate elections, we forecast the winner of all 34 races and note the resulting number of seats that would be held by the parties. That gives us a distribution of possible outcomes.

Our latest coverage

What the next Senate might look like

More than twice as many Republican seats are up for election this year as Democratic seats, giving Democrats more opportunities to build a majority. To win control of the chamber, they'll need to net four additional seats — if they win the presidency. Without the White House, they'll need five.

# How much each race matters

Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining which party controls the next Senate: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a race will decide whether the Democrats or Republicans are in the majority. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the majority party.

Tipping-point chance

North Carolina
19.1%
Missouri
17.0%
New Hampshire
12.9%
Indiana
11.4%
Pennsylvania
10.5%
Nevada
9.9%
Florida
6.2%
Wisconsin
4.1%
Kentucky
2.5%
Georgia
1.2%

Voter power index

New Hampshire
17.3
Nevada
8.8
Missouri
5.9
Indiana
4.2
North Carolina
4.0
Pennsylvania
1.8
Kentucky
1.4
Wisconsin
1.3
Alaska
1.1
Florida
0.7
Show all states

Swipe for state forecasts →

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Democratic seat counts include two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, who caucus with the Democrats; neither is up for election this year.

Some charts do not include California or Louisiana. California uses a "top two" primary system. In its Senate primary, on June 7, the candidates from all parties were listed on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters — both Democrats — will face each other in the general election on Nov. 8. Louisiana will hold its primary election on Nov. 8, with candidates from all parties listed on the same ballot. If one candidate gets a majority of votes, that person wins. Otherwise, the state will hold a runoff on Dec. 10 between the top two vote-getters.

Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.

Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Illustrations by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Deborah Ross

26.6%

Richard Burri

73.4%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Jason Kander

42.6%

Roy Blunti

57.4%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Maggie Hassan

52.7%

Kelly Ayottei

47.3%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Evan Bayh

31.5%

Todd Young

68.5%

Current seat holder: Daniel Coats

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Katie McGinty

61.7%

Pat Toomeyi

38.3%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Catherine Cortez Masto

60.0%

Joe Heck

40.0%

Current seat holder: Harry Reid

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Patrick Murphy

10.3%

Marco Rubioi

89.7%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Russ Feingold

81.7%

Ron Johnsoni

18.3%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Jim Gray

6.5%

Rand Pauli

93.5%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Jim Barksdale

2.9%

Johnny Isaksoni

97.1%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Michael Benneti

94.7%

Darryl Glenn

5.3%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Ann Kirkpatrick

2.0%

John McCaini

98.0%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Tammy Duckworth

97.2%

Mark Kirki

2.8%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Ted Strickland

1.5%

Rob Portmani

98.5%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Democrats

13.3%

Republicans

86.7%

Current seat holder: David Vitter

Louisiana will hold its primary election on Nov. 8, with candidates from all parties listed on the same ballot. If one candidate gets a majority of votes, that person wins. Otherwise, the state will hold a runoff on Dec. 10 between the top two vote-getters. The estimated chances of each party winning the seat account for the possibility of a runoff.

Projected primary vote share

Chances of each party winning seat

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Conner Eldridge

1.3%

John Boozmani

98.7%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Ray Metcalfe

1.4%

Lisa Murkowskii

98.6%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Patty Judge

0.5%

Chuck Grassleyi

99.5%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Patty Murrayi

99.5%

Chris Vance

0.5%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Thomas Dixon

0.3%

Tim Scotti

99.7%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Mike Workman

0.7%

James Lankfordi

99.3%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Jay Williams

0.2%

John Thunei

99.8%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Jerry Sturgill

0.2%

Mike Crapoi

99.8%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Ron Wydeni

99.7%

Mark Callahan

0.3%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Chris Van Hollen

99.8%

Kathy Szeliga

0.2%

Current seat holder: Barbara Mikulski

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Ron Crumpton

0.1%

Richard Shelbyi

99.9%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Eliot Glassheim

0.2%

John Hoeveni

99.8%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Richard Blumenthali

99.7%

Dan Carter

0.3%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Brian Schatzi

>99.9%

John Carroll

<0.1%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Patrick Wiesner

0.1%

Jerry Morani

99.9%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Patrick Leahyi

>99.9%

Scott Milne

<0.1%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Misty Snow

<0.1%

Mike Leei

>99.9%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Chuck Schumeri

>99.9%

Wendy Long

<0.1%

i Incumbent

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Senate seat

Kamala Harris

97.3%

Loretta Sanchez

2.7%

Current seat holder: Barbara Boxer

California uses a "top two" primary system. In its Senate primary, on June 7, the candidates from all parties were listed on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters — both Democrats — are facing each other in the general election on Nov. 8.

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

We update our Senate forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. So far we’ve collected 1287 polls.

Key

= New

A = ALL ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

V = VOTERS

Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 1:47 a.m. EST
DATES
POLLSTER
GRADESAMPLELEADERADJUSTED LEADER
ArizonaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,609 LV
45%
50%
McCain +5
McCain +7
GeorgiaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,419 LV
41%
47%
Isakson +6
Isakson +8
ArkansasNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
930 LV
41%
56%
Boozman +15
Boozman +17
IowaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,781 LV
39%
57%
Grassley +18
Grassley +20
OhioNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,860 LV
39%
57%
Portman +18
Portman +20
MarylandNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,216 LV
64%
33%
Van Hollen +31
Van Hollen +29
WashingtonNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,451 LV
59%
37%
Murray +22
Murray +20
South CarolinaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,698 LV
38%
59%
Scott +21
Scott +23
IdahoNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
612 LV
39%
58%
Crapo +19
Crapo +21
KentuckyNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,315 LV
46%
50%
Paul +4
Paul +6
MissouriNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,368 LV
51%
44%
Kander +7
Kander +5
LouisianaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
982 LV
North CarolinaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
3,126 LV
47%
43%
Ross +4
Ross +2
ConnecticutNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,387 LV
63%
34%
Blumenthal +29
Blumenthal +27
South DakotaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
459 LV
31%
65%
Thune +34
Thune +36
NevadaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,207 LV
50%
45%
Cortez Masto +5
Cortez Masto +3
New HampshireNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
696 LV
51%
42%
Hassan +9
Hassan +7
OregonNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,595 LV
63%
32%
Wyden +31
Wyden +29
New YorkNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,208 LV
71%
25%
Schumer +46
Schumer +44
UtahNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,479 LV
36%
60%
Lee +24
Lee +26
AlaskaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
409 LV
33%
55%
Murkowski +22
Murkowski +24
WisconsinNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,246 LV
48%
49%
Johnson +1
Johnson +3
FloridaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
4,092 LV
49%
48%
Murphy +1
Rubio +1
ColoradoNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,777 LV
52%
45%
Bennet +7
Bennet +5
AlabamaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,131 LV
38%
57%
Shelby +19
Shelby +21
North DakotaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
313 LV
23%
74%
Hoeven +51
Hoeven +53
VermontNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
454 LV
75%
24%
Leahy +51
Leahy +49
PennsylvaniaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,845 LV
49%
45%
McGinty +4
McGinty +2
KansasNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,311 LV
37%
59%
Moran +22
Moran +24
CaliforniaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,712 LV
52%
31%
Harris +21
Harris +21
HawaiiNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
426 LV
70%
26%
Schatz +44
Schatz +42
WashingtonNov. 4-6 Insights West402 LV
53%
37%
Murray +16
Murray +17
ArizonaNov. 4-6 Insights West392 LV
42%
50%
McCain +8
McCain +7
CaliforniaNov. 4-6 Insights West401 LV
50%
22%
Harris +28
Harris +28
North CarolinaNov. 1-4 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,250 RV
47%
48%
Burr +1
Burr +2
FloridaNov. 1-2 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,220 RV
46%
47%
Rubio +1
Rubio +2
Monday, Nov. 7, at 10:40 p.m.
Generic ballotOct. 31-Nov. 6 SurveyMonkey
C-
67,223 LV
48%
43%
Democrat +5
Democrat +2
Generic ballotOct. 24-30 SurveyMonkey
C-
43,003 LV
47%
44%
Democrat +3Tie
Generic ballotOct. 17-23 SurveyMonkey
C-
34,203 LV
46%
44%
Democrat +2
Republican +1
Generic ballotOct. 10-16 SurveyMonkey
C-
26,569 LV
47%
43%
Democrat +4
Democrat +1
Generic ballotOct. 3-9 SurveyMonkey
C-
27,200 LV
46%
43%
Democrat +3Tie
Generic ballotSep. 26-Oct. 2 SurveyMonkey
C-
26,925 LV
47%
43%
Democrat +4
Democrat +1
Generic ballotSep. 19-25 SurveyMonkey
C-
13,598 LV
47%
42%
Democrat +5
Democrat +2
Monday, Nov. 7, at 7:07 p.m.
Generic ballotNov. 4-7 YouGov
B
3,677 LV
45%
42%
Democrat +3
Democrat +3
Monday, Nov. 7, at 5:11 p.m.
NevadaNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,158 LV
49%
43%
Cortez Masto +6
Cortez Masto +6
Monday, Nov. 7, at 4:09 p.m.
FloridaNov. 2-6 Auto Alliance / ESA / Pulse Opinion Research
C+
525 LV
38%
52%
Rubio +14
Rubio +15
PennsylvaniaNov. 2-6 Auto Alliance / ESA / Pulse Opinion Research
C+
525 LV
42%
46%
Toomey +4
Toomey +5
New HampshireNov. 2-6 Auto Alliance / ESA / Pulse Opinion Research
C+
525 LV
50%
42%
Hassan +8
Hassan +7
North CarolinaNov. 2-6 Auto Alliance / ESA / Pulse Opinion Research
C+
525 LV
47%
46%
Ross +1Tie
OhioNov. 2-6 Auto Alliance / ESA / Pulse Opinion Research
C+
525 LV
38%
52%
Portman +14
Portman +15
NevadaNov. 2-6 Auto Alliance / ESA / Pulse Opinion Research
C+
525 LV
45%
45%
Tie
Heck +1
PennsylvaniaNov. 3-5 YouGov
B
931 LV
47%
46%
McGinty +1
McGinty +1
UtahNov. 3-5 YouGov
B
762 LV
23%
69%
Lee +46
Lee +46
GeorgiaNov. 3-5 YouGov
B
995 LV
41%
48%
Isakson +7
Isakson +7
Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 1:47 a.m. EST
Nov. 1-7 (2,609 LV)
R 50%
D 45%
McCain +5
McCain +7 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,419 LV)
R 47%
D 41%
Isakson +6
Isakson +8 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (930 LV)
R 56%
D 41%
Boozman +15
Boozman +17 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,781 LV)
R 57%
D 39%
Grassley +18
Grassley +20 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,860 LV)
R 57%
D 39%
Portman +18
Portman +20 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,216 LV)
D 64%
R 33%
Van Hollen +31
Van Hollen +29 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,451 LV)
D 59%
R 37%
Murray +22
Murray +20 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,698 LV)
R 59%
D 38%
Scott +21
Scott +23 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (612 LV)
R 58%
D 39%
Crapo +19
Crapo +21 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,315 LV)
R 50%
D 46%
Paul +4
Paul +6 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,368 LV)
D 51%
R 44%
Kander +7
Kander +5 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (982 LV)
Tie
Nov. 1-7 (3,126 LV)
D 47%
R 43%
Ross +4
Ross +2 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,387 LV)
D 63%
R 34%
Blumenthal +29
Blumenthal +27 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (459 LV)
R 65%
D 31%
Thune +34
Thune +36 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,207 LV)
D 50%
R 45%
Cortez Masto +5
Cortez Masto +3 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (696 LV)
D 51%
R 42%
Hassan +9
Hassan +7 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,595 LV)
D 63%
R 32%
Wyden +31
Wyden +29 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,208 LV)
D 71%
R 25%
Schumer +46
Schumer +44 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,479 LV)
R 60%
D 36%
Lee +24
Lee +26 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (409 LV)
R 55%
D 33%
Murkowski +22
Murkowski +24 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,246 LV)
R 49%
D 48%
Johnson +1
Johnson +3 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (4,092 LV)
D 49%
R 48%
Murphy +1
Rubio +1 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,777 LV)
D 52%
R 45%
Bennet +7
Bennet +5 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,131 LV)
R 57%
D 38%
Shelby +19
Shelby +21 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (313 LV)
R 74%
D 23%
Hoeven +51
Hoeven +53 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (454 LV)
D 75%
R 24%
Leahy +51
Leahy +49 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,845 LV)
D 49%
R 45%
McGinty +4
McGinty +2 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,311 LV)
R 59%
D 37%
Moran +22
Moran +24 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,712 LV)
D 52%
R 31%
Harris +21
Harris +21 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (426 LV)
D 70%
R 26%
Schatz +44
Schatz +42 (adjusted)
Nov. 4-6 (402 LV)
D 53%
R 37%
Murray +16
Murray +17 (adjusted)
Nov. 4-6 (392 LV)
R 50%
D 42%
McCain +8
McCain +7 (adjusted)
Nov. 4-6 (401 LV)
D 50%
R 22%
Harris +28
Harris +28 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-4 (1,250 RV)
R 48%
D 47%
Burr +1
Burr +2 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-2 (1,220 RV)
R 47%
D 46%
Rubio +1
Rubio +2 (adjusted)
Monday, Nov. 7, at 10:40 p.m. EST
Oct. 31-Nov. 6 (67,223 LV)
D 48%
R 43%
Democrat +5
Democrat +2 (adjusted)
Oct. 24-30 (43,003 LV)
D 47%
R 44%
Democrat +3
Tie (adjusted)
Oct. 17-23 (34,203 LV)
D 46%
R 44%
Democrat +2
Republican +1 (adjusted)
Oct. 10-16 (26,569 LV)
D 47%
R 43%
Democrat +4
Democrat +1 (adjusted)
Oct. 3-9 (27,200 LV)
D 46%
R 43%
Democrat +3
Tie (adjusted)
Sep. 26-Oct. 2 (26,925 LV)
D 47%
R 43%
Democrat +4
Democrat +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 19-25 (13,598 LV)
D 47%
R 42%
Democrat +5
Democrat +2 (adjusted)
Monday, Nov. 7, at 7:07 p.m. EST
Nov. 4-7 (3,677 LV)
D 45%
R 42%
Democrat +3
Democrat +3 (adjusted)
Monday, Nov. 7, at 5:11 p.m. EST
Nov. 3-6 (1,158 LV)
D 49%
R 43%
Cortez Masto +6
Cortez Masto +6 (adjusted)
Monday, Nov. 7, at 4:09 p.m. EST
R 52%
D 38%
Rubio +14
Rubio +15 (adjusted)
R 46%
D 42%
Toomey +4
Toomey +5 (adjusted)
D 50%
R 42%
Hassan +8
Hassan +7 (adjusted)
D 47%
R 46%
Ross +1
Tie (adjusted)
R 52%
D 38%
Portman +14
Portman +15 (adjusted)
D 45%
R 45%
Tie
Heck +1 (adjusted)
Nov. 3-5 (931 LV)
D 47%
R 46%
McGinty +1
McGinty +1 (adjusted)
Nov. 3-5 (762 LV)
R 69%
D 23%
Lee +46
Lee +46 (adjusted)
Nov. 3-5 (995 LV)
R 48%
D 41%
Isakson +7
Isakson +7 (adjusted)
Show more updates ▾

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Our models are mostly based on state polls, but generic ballot polls — which ask whether someone will vote for the Republican or the Democrat in their congressional district — inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend-line adjustment, house-effects adjustment and demographic regression.

July15,2016Aug.Sept.Oct.01020304050%Election DayNov. 844.2%Republican44.2%Republican45.4%Democrat45.4%Democrat

We’ve collected 162 generic ballot polls so far. The model weights each poll by its sample size, how recently it was conducted and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm. The model then adjusts each poll based on other factors.

Key

= New

A = ALL ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

V = VOTERS

*Result averaged from more than one survey question or demographic
DATES
POLLSTER
GRADE SAMPLE WEIGHT
Democrat
Republican
LEADER ADJUSTED LEADER
Nov. 4-7 YouGov
B
3,677 LV
5.08
45%
42%
Democrat +3
Democrat +3
Oct. 30-Nov. 3 Ipsos
A-
2,021 LV
4.40
42%
41%
Democrat +1
Republican +3
Nov. 3-6 Fox News
A
1,295 LV
4.34
45%
46%
Republican +1 Tie
Nov. 3-5 NBC News/Wall Street Journal
A-
1,282 LV
4.00
47%
44%
Democrat +3
Democrat +4
Nov. 4-6 Selzer & Company*
A+
799 LV
3.45
45%
48%
Republican +3
Republican +2
Nov. 1-3 Marist College
A
940 LV
3.19
48%
47%
Democrat +1
Democrat +1
Nov. 1-5 RKM Research and Communications, Inc.
B+
1,009 LV
2.86
45%
46%
Republican +2
Republican +1
Oct. 31-Nov. 6 SurveyMonkey
C-
67,223 LV
2.49
48%
43%
Democrat +5
Democrat +2
Oct. 29-30 Morning Consult 1,772 LV
2.04
44%
43%
Democrat +1 Tie
Oct. 27-28 Red Oak/Google Consumer Surveys
B
943 LV
1.85
36%
39%
Republican +3
Republican +2
Nov. 4-7 (3,677 LV)
Democrat 45%
Republican 42%
Democrat +3
Democrat +3 (adjusted)
Oct. 30-Nov. 3 (2,021 LV)
Democrat 42%
Republican 41%
Democrat +1
Republican +3 (adjusted)
Nov. 3-6 (1,295 LV)
Republican 46%
Democrat 45%
Republican +1
Tie (adjusted)
Nov. 3-5 (1,282 LV)
Democrat 47%
Republican 44%
Democrat +3
Democrat +4 (adjusted)
Nov. 4-6 (799 LV)
Republican 48%
Democrat 45%
Republican +3
Republican +2 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-3 (940 LV)
Democrat 48%
Republican 47%
Democrat +1
Democrat +1 (adjusted)
Nov. 1-5 (1,009 LV)
Republican 46%
Democrat 45%
Republican +2
Republican +1 (adjusted)
Oct. 31-Nov. 6 (67,223 LV)
Democrat 48%
Republican 43%
Democrat +5
Democrat +2 (adjusted)
Oct. 29-30 (1,772 LV)
Democrat 44%
Republican 43%
Democrat +1
Tie (adjusted)
Oct. 27-28 (943 LV)
Republican 39%
Democrat 36%
Republican +3
Republican +2 (adjusted)
Show more polls ▾

From polls to an adjusted average

democrat
republican
1. Polling average 45.1%- 43.2%- democrat +1.9
Adjust for likely voters +0.1-- +0.1--
Adjust for trend line +0.2-- +0.7--
Adjust for house effects +0.1-- +0.1--
2. Adjusted polling average 45.4%- 44.2%- democrat +1.2

Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?