Who will win the Senate?
Who would win the Senate today?
Chance of winning control
The vice president breaks ties in the Senate. is the probability of a 50-50 split in the Senate with a Democratic vice president. is the probability of a 50-50 split with a Republican vice president.
# How the odds have changed
We'll be updating our Senate forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.
# Who’s ahead in each Senate race
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each race. Here are the expected margins of victory in each state. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
80% chance outcome falls in this range
The balance of power in the next Senate
In each simulation of the Senate elections, we forecast the winner of all 34 races and note the resulting number of seats that would be held by the parties. That gives us a distribution of possible outcomes.
Our latest coverage
What the next Senate might look like
More than twice as many Republican seats are up for election this year as Democratic seats, giving Democrats more opportunities to build a majority. To win control of the chamber, they'll need to net four additional seats — if they win the presidency. Without the White House, they'll need five.
# How much each race matters
Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining which party controls the next Senate: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a race will decide whether the Democrats or Republicans are in the majority. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the majority party.
Voter power index
Swipe for state forecasts →
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Democratic seat counts include two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, who caucus with the Democrats; neither is up for election this year.
Some charts do not include California or Louisiana. California uses a "top two" primary system. In its Senate primary, on June 7, the candidates from all parties were listed on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters — both Democrats — will face each other in the general election on Nov. 8. Louisiana will hold its primary election on Nov. 8, with candidates from all parties listed on the same ballot. If one candidate gets a majority of votes, that person wins. Otherwise, the state will hold a runoff on Dec. 10 between the top two vote-getters.
Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.
Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Illustrations by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win North Carolina?
Who would win North Carolina today?
Who will win Missouri?
Who would win Missouri today?
Who will win New Hampshire?
Who would win New Hampshire today?
Who will win Indiana?
Who would win Indiana today?
Who will win Pennsylvania?
Who would win Pennsylvania today?
Who will win Nevada?
Who would win Nevada today?
Who will win Florida?
Who would win Florida today?
Who will win Wisconsin?
Who would win Wisconsin today?
Who will win Kentucky?
Who would win Kentucky today?
Who will win Georgia?
Who would win Georgia today?
Who will win Colorado?
Who would win Colorado today?
Who will win Arizona?
Who would win Arizona today?
Who will win Illinois?
Who would win Illinois today?
Who will win Ohio?
Who would win Ohio today?
Who will win Louisiana?
Who would win Louisiana today?
Who will win Arkansas?
Who would win Arkansas today?
Who will win Alaska?
Who would win Alaska today?
Who will win Iowa?
Who would win Iowa today?
Who will win Washington?
Who would win Washington today?
Who will win South Carolina?
Who would win South Carolina today?
Who will win Oklahoma?
Who would win Oklahoma today?
Who will win South Dakota?
Who would win South Dakota today?
Who will win Idaho?
Who would win Idaho today?
Who will win Oregon?
Who would win Oregon today?
Who will win Maryland?
Who would win Maryland today?
Who will win Alabama?
Who would win Alabama today?
Who will win North Dakota?
Who would win North Dakota today?
Who will win Connecticut?
Who would win Connecticut today?
Who will win Hawaii?
Who would win Hawaii today?
Who will win Kansas?
Who would win Kansas today?
Who will win Vermont?
Who would win Vermont today?
Who will win Utah?
Who would win Utah today?
Who will win New York?
Who would win New York today?
Who will win California?
Who would win California today?
We update our Senate forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. So far we’ve collected 1287 polls.
A = ALL ADULTS
RV = REGISTERED VOTERS
LV = LIKELY VOTERS
V = VOTERS
Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 1:47 a.m. EST
|Van Hollen +31|
Van Hollen +29
|•||South Carolina||Nov. 1-7||SurveyMonkey||1,698||LV|
|•||North Carolina||Nov. 1-7||SurveyMonkey||3,126||LV|
|•||South Dakota||Nov. 1-7||SurveyMonkey||459||LV|
|Cortez Masto +5|
Cortez Masto +3
|•||New Hampshire||Nov. 1-7||SurveyMonkey||696||LV|
|•||New York||Nov. 1-7||SurveyMonkey||2,208||LV|
|•||North Dakota||Nov. 1-7||SurveyMonkey||313||LV|
|•||Washington||Nov. 4-6||Insights West||402||LV|
|•||Arizona||Nov. 4-6||Insights West||392||LV|
|•||California||Nov. 4-6||Insights West||401||LV|
|•||North Carolina||Nov. 1-4||Gravis Marketing||1,250||RV|
|•||Florida||Nov. 1-2||Gravis Marketing||1,220||RV|
Monday, Nov. 7, at 10:40 p.m.
|•||Generic ballot||Oct. 31-Nov. 6||SurveyMonkey||67,223||LV|
|•||Generic ballot||Oct. 24-30||SurveyMonkey||43,003||LV|
|•||Generic ballot||Oct. 17-23||SurveyMonkey||34,203||LV|
|•||Generic ballot||Oct. 10-16||SurveyMonkey||26,569||LV|
|•||Generic ballot||Oct. 3-9||SurveyMonkey||27,200||LV|
|•||Generic ballot||Sep. 26-Oct. 2||SurveyMonkey||26,925||LV|
|•||Generic ballot||Sep. 19-25||SurveyMonkey||13,598||LV|
Monday, Nov. 7, at 7:07 p.m.
|•||Generic ballot||Nov. 4-7||YouGov||3,677||LV|
Monday, Nov. 7, at 5:11 p.m.
|•||Nevada||Nov. 3-6||Gravis Marketing||1,158||LV|
|Cortez Masto +6|
Cortez Masto +6
Monday, Nov. 7, at 4:09 p.m.
|•||Florida||Nov. 2-6||Auto Alliance /||525||LV|
|•||Pennsylvania||Nov. 2-6||Auto Alliance /||525||LV|
|•||New Hampshire||Nov. 2-6||Auto Alliance /||525||LV|
|•||North Carolina||Nov. 2-6||Auto Alliance /||525||LV|
|•||Ohio||Nov. 2-6||Auto Alliance /||525||LV|
|•||Nevada||Nov. 2-6||Auto Alliance /||525||LV|
Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 1:47 a.m. EST
Monday, Nov. 7, at 10:40 p.m. EST
Monday, Nov. 7, at 7:07 p.m. EST
Monday, Nov. 7, at 5:11 p.m. EST
Monday, Nov. 7, at 4:09 p.m. EST
Generic ballot polls
Our models are mostly based on state polls, but generic ballot polls — which ask whether someone will vote for the Republican or the Democrat in their congressional district — inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend-line adjustment, house-effects adjustment and demographic regression.