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UPDATED Nov 3 at 12:51 AM
More MLB: Elo history | ESPN coverage
| Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. Simulation | Postseason Chances | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Division | Rating | 1-Week Change | RecordProj. Rec. | Run Diff. | Make PlayoffsMake Play-offs | Win DivisionWin Div. | Win World SeriesWin W.S. | |
 | NL Central | 1559 | 96-66 | +138 | 77% | 56% | 11% | ||
| NL West | 1544 | 91-71 | +97 | 65% | 47% | 8% | ||
| NL East | 1535 | 90-72 | +82 | 60% | 42% | 7% | ||
| AL East | 1531 | 87-75 | +55 | 51% | 32% | 6% | ||
| AL West | 1530 | 87-75 | +52 | 50% | 36% | 6% | ||
| AL East | 1529 | 85-77 | +37 | 45% | 25% | 5% | ||
| NL East | 1528 | 89-73 | +74 | 57% | 38% | 6% | ||
| AL Central | 1526 | 86-76 | +47 | 49% | 34% | 5% | ||
| NL West | 1526 | 86-76 | +48 | 47% | 28% | 5% | ||
| NL Central | 1524 | 84-78 | +31 | 39% | 17% | 4% | ||
| NL Central | 1521 | 87-75 | +52 | 47% | 21% | 4% | ||
| AL East | 1516 | 82-80 | +13 | 35% | 18% | 4% | ||
| AL East | 1512 | 80-82 | -8 | 29% | 14% | 3% | ||
| AL West | 1510 | 82-80 | +12 | 36% | 22% | 3% | ||
| AL Central | 1508 | 82-80 | +6 | 33% | 21% | 3% | ||
| AL West | 1506 | 80-82 | -9 | 29% | 17% | 3% | ||
| AL West | 1505 | 80-82 | -13 | 28% | 17% | 2% | ||
| NL West | 1503 | 81-81 | -2 | 29% | 15% | 3% | ||
| AL Central | 1501 | 80-82 | -7 | 29% | 18% | 2% | ||
| AL East | 1500 | 77-85 | -37 | 21% | 10% | 2% | ||
| AL Central | 1498 | 79-83 | -21 | 25% | 14% | 2% | ||
| AL Central | 1495 | 78-84 | -30 | 23% | 13% | 2% | ||
| AL West | 1495 | 76-86 | -50 | 18% | 9% | 2% | ||
| NL East | 1487 | 80-82 | -10 | 26% | 14% | 1% | ||
| NL Central | 1470 | 74-88 | -67 | 12% | 4% | <1% | ||
| NL West | 1470 | 72-90 | -80 | 10% | 5% | <1% | ||
| NL West | 1469 | 73-89 | -73 | 12% | 6% | <1% | ||
| NL Central | 1461 | 70-92 | -106 | 6% | 2% | <1% | ||
| NL East | 1448 | 69-93 | -108 | 7% | 3% | <1% | ||
| NL East | 1442 | 68-94 | -122 | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »
For historical Elo ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Allison McCann. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Additional contributions by Ella Koeze.