Mariners | 2016 MLB Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

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Starting Pitcher Adjustments

James Paxton

52.4

+12.5

Ariel Miranda

51.2

+6.7

Hisashi Iwakuma

50.5

+3.3

Felix Hernandez

50.2

+2.0

Taijuan Walker

49.1

-3.4

Completed games

L 2-3 Oct 2

59%

vs.

41%

Hernandez

Manaea

L 8-9 Oct 1

57%

vs.

42%

Iwakuma

Cotton

W 5-1 Sep 30

62%

vs.

38%

Walker

Alcantara

W 3-2 Sep 29

60%

vs.

40%

Miranda

Graveman

W 12-4 Sep 28

50%

@

50%

Paxton

Fister

L 4-8 Sep 27

48%

@

52%

Hernandez

Fiers

W 4-3 Sep 26

46%

@

54%

Iwakuma

McHugh

W 4-3 Sep 25

57%

@

43%

Walker

Santiago

L 2-3 Sep 24

60%

@

40%

Miranda

Duffey

W 10-1 Sep 23

58%

@

42%

Paxton

Gibson

W 2-1 Sep 21

51%

vs.

49%

Hernandez

Sanchez

L 2-10 Sep 20

52%

vs.

48%

Iwakuma

Happ

L 2-3 Sep 19

52%

vs.

48%

Walker

Estrada

W 7-3 Sep 18

53%

vs.

47%

Miranda

Fister

L 1-2 Sep 17

54%

vs.

46%

Paxton

Fiers

L 0-6 Sep 16

55%

vs.

45%

Hernandez

McHugh

W 2-1 Sep 14

55%

@

45%

Iwakuma

Chacin

W 8-0 Sep 13

50%

@

50%

Walker

Meyer

W 8-1 Sep 12

46%

@

54%

Miranda

Nolasco

W 3-2 Sep 11

59%

@

41%

Paxton

Alcantara

W 14-3 Sep 10

54%

@

46%

Hernandez

Graveman

W 3-2 Sep 9

59%

@

41%

Iwakuma

Mengden

W 6-3 Sep 8

50%

vs.

50%

Walker

Holland

W 8-3 Sep 7

48%

vs.

52%

Miranda

Griffin

L 7-10 Sep 6

53%

vs.

47%

Paxton

Perez

W 14-6 Sep 5

49%

vs.

51%

Hernandez

Hamels

L 2-4 Sep 4

51%

vs.

49%

Iwakuma

Shoemaker

L 3-10 Sep 3

54%

vs.

46%

Walker

Skaggs

W 11-8 Sep 2

53%

vs.

47%

Miranda

Oberholtzer

L 1-14 Aug 31

50%

@

50%

Hernandez

Perez

L 7-8 Aug 30

41%

@

59%

Paxton

Hamels

L 3-6 Aug 29

43%

@

57%

Iwakuma

Darvish

L 1-4 Aug 28

49%

@

51%

Walker

Rodon

L 3-9 Aug 27

46%

@

54%

Miranda

Quintana

W 3-1 Aug 26

48%

@

52%

Hernandez

Sale

L 6-7 Aug 25

56%

@

44%

Paxton

Ranaudo

L 0-5 Aug 24

54%

vs.

46%

Iwakuma

Tanaka

L 1-5 Aug 23

57%

vs.

43%

Walker

Sabathia

W 7-5 Aug 22

51%

vs.

49%

Martin

Pineda

L 6-7 Aug 21

65%

vs.

35%

Miranda

Garza

W 8-2 Aug 20

68%

vs.

32%

Hernandez

Peralta

W 7-6 Aug 19

61%

vs.

39%

LeBlanc

Suter

L 4-6 Aug 18

50%

@

50%

Iwakuma

Shoemaker

W 4-3 Aug 17

47%

@

53%

Martin

Skaggs

L 6-7 Aug 16

53%

@

47%

Miranda

Chacin

W 3-2 Aug 15

54%

@

46%

Hernandez

Nolasco

W 8-4 Aug 14

52%

@

48%

LeBlanc

Neal

W 4-3 Aug 13

55%

@

45%

Iwakuma

Graveman

L 3-6 Aug 12

51%

@

49%

Wieland

Manaea

W 3-1 Aug 10

50%

vs.

50%

Hernandez

Verlander

W 6-5 Aug 9

52%

vs.

48%

LeBlanc

Norris

W 3-0 Aug 8

49%

vs.

51%

Iwakuma

Fulmer

W 3-1 Aug 7

52%

vs.

48%

Paxton

Shoemaker

W 8-6 Aug 6

53%

vs.

47%

Walker

Skaggs

W 6-4 Aug 5

62%

vs.

38%

Hernandez

Lincecum

L 2-3 Aug 4

48%

vs.

52%

Miranda

Pomeranz

W 3-1 Aug 3

49%

vs.

51%

Iwakuma

Porcello

W 5-4 Aug 2

43%

vs.

57%

LeBlanc

Price

L 1-2 Aug 1

53%

vs.

47%

Paxton

Rodriguez

L 6-7 Jul 31

48%

@

52%

Hernandez

Matusz

W 4-1 Jul 30

35%

@

65%

Miley

Arrieta

L 1-12 Jul 29

43%

@

57%

Iwakuma

Lester

L 1-10 Jul 27

41%

@

59%

Paxton

Cole

W 7-4 Jul 26

47%

@

53%

Hernandez

Liriano

L 0-2 Jul 24

40%

@

60%

Miley

Happ

W 14-5 Jul 23

45%

@

55%

Iwakuma

Dickey

W 2-1 Jul 22

36%

@

64%

Paxton

Estrada

W 6-5 Jul 20

60%

vs.

40%

Hernandez

Gonzalez

L 1-6 Jul 19

51%

vs.

49%

Miley

Quintana

W 4-3 Jul 18

50%

vs.

50%

LeBlanc

Sale

L 1-8 Jul 17

48%

vs.

52%

Montgomery

McHugh

W 1-0 Jul 16

51%

vs.

49%

Iwakuma

McCullers

L 3-7 Jul 15

50%

vs.

50%

Paxton

Fister

W 8-5 Jul 10

48%

@

52%

Montgomery

Gee

L 3-5 Jul 9

47%

@

53%

Miley

Volquez

W 3-2 Jul 8

50%

@

50%

Iwakuma

Ventura

L 3-4 Jul 7

45%

@

55%

Paxton

Duffy

L 8-9 Jul 6

42%

@

58%

LeBlanc

Fiers

L 2-5 Jul 5

45%

@

55%

Walker

Keuchel

L 1-2 Jul 4

42%

@

58%

Miley

McCullers

W 9-4 Jul 3

55%

vs.

45%

Iwakuma

Jimenez

W 12-6 Jul 2

51%

vs.

49%

Paxton

Wilson

W 5-2 Jul 1

46%

vs.

54%

LeBlanc

Gausman

W 5-3 Jun 30

49%

vs.

51%

Walker

Tillman

L 1-8 Jun 29

55%

vs.

45%

Miley

Taillon

W 5-2 Jun 28

58%

vs.

42%

Iwakuma

Niese

L 6-11 Jun 26

50%

vs.

50%

Paxton

Garcia

W 5-4 Jun 25

51%

vs.

49%

Karns

Leake

W 4-3 Jun 24

45%

vs.

55%

LeBlanc

Martinez

L 4-5 Jun 23

46%

@

54%

Nuno

Norris

L 1-5 Jun 22

44%

@

56%

Iwakuma

Fulmer

L 2-4 Jun 21

43%

@

57%

Paxton

Verlander

L 7-8 Jun 20

53%

@

47%

Karns

Pelfrey

L 1-2 Jun 19

39%

@

61%

Walker

Price

L 2-6 Jun 18

41%

@

59%

Sampson

Porcello

W 8-4 Jun 17

47%

@

53%

Iwakuma

Elias

W 6-4 Jun 16

46%

@

54%

Paxton

Snell

L 2-3 Jun 15

47%

@

53%

Karns

Smyly

L 7-8 Jun 14

47%

@

53%

Walker

Odorizzi

L 4-6 Jun 12

49%

vs.

51%

Miley

Hamels

L 1-2 Jun 11

51%

vs.

49%

Paxton

Lewis

W 7-5 Jun 10

56%

vs.

44%

Iwakuma

Holland

L 3-5 Jun 9

54%

vs.

46%

Karns

Tomlin

W 5-0 Jun 8

49%

vs.

51%

Walker

Carrasco

W 7-1 Jun 7

53%

vs.

47%

Miley

Anderson

L 1-3 Jun 6

52%

vs.

48%

Paxton

Bauer

L 2-3 Jun 5

49%

@

51%

Iwakuma

Holland

L 4-10 Jun 4

48%

@

52%

Karns

Perez

L 3-7 Jun 3

43%

@

57%

Walker

Darvish

W 16-13 Jun 2

55%

@

45%

Miley

Rea

L 6-14 Jun 1

58%

@

42%

Paxton

Friedrich

W 16-4 May 31

63%

vs.

37%

Iwakuma

Shields

W 9-3 May 30

65%

vs.

35%

Karns

Cashner

L 4-5 May 29

64%

vs.

36%

Walker

Nolasco

L 5-6 May 28

62%

vs.

38%

Miley

Hughes

L 2-7 May 27

66%

vs.

34%

Hernandez

Dean

W 13-3 May 25

62%

vs.

38%

Iwakuma

Neal

W 6-5 May 24

62%

vs.

38%

Karns

Graveman

L 0-5 May 23

56%

vs.

43%

Walker

Hill

W 5-4 May 22

63%

@

37%

Miley

Simon

W 4-0 May 21

62%

@

38%

Hernandez

Lamb

W 8-3 May 20

57%

@

43%

Iwakuma

Straily

W 7-2 May 19

47%

@

53%

Karns

Wilson

L 2-5 May 18

46%

@

54%

Walker

Tillman

W 10-0 May 17

46%

@

54%

Miley

Jimenez

L 0-3 May 15

60%

vs.

40%

Hernandez

Santiago

L 7-9 May 14

59%

vs.

41%

Iwakuma

Chacin

L 6-7 May 13

59%

vs.

41%

Karns

Tropeano

W 6-5 May 11

56%

vs.

44%

Walker

Archer

W 6-4 May 10

52%

vs.

48%

Miley

Smyly

W 5-2 May 9

60%

vs.

40%

Hernandez

Moore

L 1-5 May 8

51%

@

49%

Iwakuma

McHugh

W 3-2 May 7

44%

@

56%

Karns

Keuchel

L 3-6 May 6

52%

@

48%

Walker

Fister

W 6-3 May 5

49%

@

51%

Miley

Devenski

W 9-8 May 4

57%

@

43%

Hernandez

Manaea

W 8-2 May 3

50%

@

50%

Iwakuma

Gray

W 4-3 May 2

50%

@

50%

Karns

Graveman

L 1-4 May 1

58%

vs.

42%

Walker

Kennedy

W 6-0 Apr 30

51%

vs.

49%

Miley

Ventura

W 1-0 Apr 29

59%

vs.

41%

Hernandez

Medlen

L 4-7 Apr 27

57%

vs.

43%

Iwakuma

McHugh

W 11-1 Apr 26

47%

vs.

53%

Karns

Keuchel

W 3-2 Apr 25

56%

vs.

44%

Walker

Fister

W 9-4 Apr 24

46%

@

54%

Miley

Shoemaker

L 2-4 Apr 23

52%

@

48%

Hernandez

Santiago

W 5-2 Apr 22

50%

@

50%

Iwakuma

Tropeano

W 10-7 Apr 21

46%

@

54%

Karns

Anderson

W 2-1 Apr 20

43%

@

57%

Walker

Salazar

L 2-3 Apr 19

40%

@

60%

Miley

Carrasco

L 3-4 Apr 17

45%

@

55%

Iwakuma

Tanaka

W 3-2 Apr 16

50%

@

50%

Hernandez

Sabathia

W 7-1 Apr 15

43%

@

57%

Karns

Severino

W 4-2 Apr 13

53%

vs.

47%

Walker

Griffin

L 0-8 Apr 12

53%

vs.

47%

Miley

Holland

L 3-7 Apr 11

59%

vs.

41%

Iwakuma

Lewis

L 1-2 Apr 10

59%

vs.

41%

Hernandez

Bassitt

L 1-6 Apr 9

55%

vs.

45%

Karns

Hill

L 2-3 Apr 8

62%

vs.

38%

Walker

Surkamp

W 9-5 Apr 6

50%

@

50%

Miley

Lewis

W 10-2 Apr 5

51%

@

49%

Iwakuma

Perez

L 2-3 Apr 4

46%

@

54%

Hernandez

Hamels

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