Marlins | 2016 MLB Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

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Starting Pitcher Adjustments

Jose Fernandez

59.8

+50.2

Adam Conley

49.8

+2.9

Wei-Yin Chen

49.1

-0.3

Tom Koehler

46.6

-12.1

Jose Urena

46.1

-14.3

Andrew Cashner

45.0

-19.3

Completed games

L 7-10 Oct 2

32%

@

68%

Koehler

Scherzer

L 1-2 Oct 1

38%

@

62%

Chen

Roark

W 7-4 Sep 30

40%

@

60%

Cashner

Cole

L 2-5 Sep 28

46%

vs.

54%

Urena

Lugo

L 1-12 Sep 27

44%

vs.

56%

Koehler

Syndergaard

W 7-3 Sep 26

49%

vs.

51%

Conley

Colon

W 6-4 Sep 24

62%

vs.

38%

Chen

Blair

L 2-3 Sep 23

54%

vs.

46%

Cashner

Wisler

L 3-6 Sep 22

56%

vs.

44%

Urena

Collmenter

L 3-8 Sep 21

39%

vs.

61%

Koehler

Scherzer

W 1-0 Sep 20

51%

vs.

49%

Fernandez

Roark

W 4-3 Sep 19

49%

vs.

51%

Chen

Cole

W 5-4 Sep 18

51%

@

49%

Cashner

Asher

L 0-8 Sep 17

52%

@

48%

Urena

Hellickson

L 3-4 Sep 16

55%

@

45%

Koehler

Morgan

W 7-5 Sep 14

53%

@

47%

Fernandez

Teheran

W 7-5 Sep 13

49%

@

51%

Esch

Wisler

L 7-12 Sep 12

49%

@

51%

Cashner

Foltynewicz

W 3-0 Sep 11

42%

vs.

58%

Urena

Maeda

L 0-5 Sep 10

41%

vs.

59%

Koehler

Hill

W 4-1 Sep 9

40%

vs.

60%

Fernandez

Kershaw

W 6-0 Sep 7

56%

vs.

44%

Cashner

Hellickson

L 3-4 Sep 6

62%

vs.

38%

Urena

Morgan

L 2-6 Sep 5

56%

vs.

44%

Esch

Eickhoff

L 5-6 Sep 4

39%

@

61%

Koehler

Salazar

L 3-8 Sep 3

47%

@

53%

Fernandez

Bauer

L 2-6 Sep 2

35%

@

65%

Cashner

Carrasco

W 6-4 Sep 1

40%

@

60%

Urena

deGrom

L 2-5 Aug 31

44%

@

56%

Esch

Colon

L 4-7 Aug 30

44%

@

56%

Koehler

Lugo

L 1-2 Aug 29

54%

@

46%

Fernandez

Montero

L 1-3 Aug 28

54%

vs.

46%

Nicolino

Perdomo

L 0-1 Aug 27

58%

vs.

42%

Urena

Richard

W 7-6 Aug 26

57%

vs.

42%

Phelps

Cosart

L 2-5 Aug 25

55%

vs.

45%

Koehler

Volquez

W 3-0 Aug 24

62%

vs.

38%

Fernandez

Gee

L 0-1 Aug 23

49%

vs.

51%

Cashner

Ventura

W 3-2 Aug 21

42%

@

57%

Urena

Vogelsong

W 3-1 Aug 20

40%

@

60%

Phelps

Kuhl

W 6-5 Aug 19

39%

@

61%

Koehler

Cole

L 4-5 Aug 18

55%

@

45%

Fernandez

Straily

L 2-3 Aug 17

45%

@

55%

Cashner

Bailey

L 3-6 Aug 16

47%

@

53%

Urena

DeSclafani

W 6-3 Aug 15

51%

@

49%

Phelps

Finnegan

W 5-4 Aug 14

49%

vs.

51%

Koehler

Sale

L 7-8 Aug 13

59%

vs.

41%

Conley

Shields

L 2-4 Aug 12

55%

vs.

45%

Cashner

Rodon

L 0-1 Aug 10

51%

vs.

49%

Phelps

Samardzija

W 2-0 Aug 9

49%

vs.

51%

Koehler

Moore

L 7-8 Aug 8

53%

vs.

47%

Fernandez

Cueto

W 10-7 Aug 7

45%

@

55%

Conley

Gray

L 6-12 Aug 6

46%

@

54%

Cashner

Bettis

W 5-3 Aug 5

46%

@

54%

Phelps

De La Rosa

L 4-5 Aug 3

36%

@

64%

Koehler

Lackey

L 2-3 Aug 2

47%

@

53%

Fernandez

Hammel

L 0-5 Aug 1

39%

@

61%

Conley

Hendricks

W 5-4 Jul 31

44%

vs.

56%

Cashner

Martinez

W 11-0 Jul 30

45%

vs.

55%

Rea

Garcia

L 6-11 Jul 29

48%

vs.

52%

Urena

Leake

L 4-5 Jul 28

58%

vs.

42%

Fernandez

Wacha

W 11-1 Jul 27

58%

vs.

42%

Conley

Eflin

W 5-0 Jul 26

57%

vs.

43%

Koehler

Eickhoff

L 0-4 Jul 25

58%

vs.

42%

Cosart

Hellickson

L 0-3 Jul 24

50%

vs.

50%

Urena

Matz

W 7-2 Jul 23

53%

vs.

47%

Fernandez

deGrom

L 3-5 Jul 22

56%

vs.

44%

Conley

Verrett

W 9-3 Jul 21

50%

@

50%

Koehler

Eickhoff

L 1-4 Jul 20

55%

@

45%

Chen

Hellickson

W 2-1 Jul 19

50%

@

50%

Urena

Velasquez

W 3-2 Jul 18

62%

@

38%

Fernandez

Nola

W 6-3 Jul 17

44%

@

56%

Conley

Wacha

L 0-5 Jul 16

37%

@

63%

Koehler

Wainwright

W 7-6 Jul 15

41%

@

59%

Chen

Garcia

W 7-3 Jul 10

66%

vs.

34%

Koehler

Reed

W 4-2 Jul 9

63%

vs.

37%

Conley

Lamb

W 3-1 Jul 8

65%

vs.

35%

Fernandez

Straily

L 2-4 Jul 6

36%

@

64%

Nicolino

deGrom

W 5-2 Jul 5

42%

@

58%

Chen

Matz

L 6-8 Jul 4

40%

@

60%

Koehler

Harvey

W 5-2 Jul 3

58%

@

42%

Conley

Wisler

L 1-9 Jul 2

69%

@

31%

Fernandez

Harrell

W 7-5 Jul 1

46%

@

54%

Nicolino

Teheran

L 5-8 Jun 30

57%

@

43%

Chen

Foltynewicz

L 3-10 Jun 29

45%

@

55%

Koehler

Norris

L 5-7 Jun 28

51%

@

49%

Conley

Pelfrey

W 6-1 Jun 26

53%

vs.

47%

Fernandez

Hammel

W 9-6 Jun 25

36%

vs.

64%

Clemens

Lackey

L 4-5 Jun 24

41%

vs.

59%

Koehler

Hendricks

W 4-2 Jun 23

39%

vs.

61%

Chen

Lester

W 3-0 Jun 22

59%

vs.

41%

Conley

Gant

L 2-3 Jun 21

70%

vs.

30%

Fernandez

Norris

L 3-5 Jun 20

54%

vs.

46%

Clemens

De La Rosa

W 3-0 Jun 19

52%

vs.

48%

Koehler

Anderson

W 9-6 Jun 18

51%

vs.

49%

Chen

Chatwood

W 5-1 Jun 17

52%

vs.

48%

Conley

Gray

L 3-6 Jun 15

54%

@

46%

Nicolino

Perdomo

W 5-2 Jun 14

46%

@

54%

Koehler

Pomeranz

W 13-4 Jun 13

51%

@

49%

Chen

Rea

L 0-6 Jun 12

49%

@

51%

Conley

Ray

L 3-5 Jun 11

56%

@

44%

Fernandez

Godley

W 8-6 Jun 10

44%

@

56%

Nicolino

Corbin

W 10-3 Jun 9

46%

@

54%

Koehler

Santana

L 5-7 Jun 8

52%

@

48%

Chen

Nolasco

L 4-6 Jun 7

50%

@

50%

Conley

Dean

W 1-0 Jun 5

55%

vs.

45%

Fernandez

Harvey

L 4-6 Jun 4

48%

vs.

52%

Nicolino

Colon

L 2-6 Jun 3

42%

vs.

58%

Koehler

Syndergaard

W 4-3 Jun 2

51%

vs.

49%

Chen

Nicasio

W 3-2 Jun 1

49%

vs.

51%

Conley

Niese

W 3-1 May 31

49%

vs.

51%

Fernandez

Cole

L 0-10 May 30

48%

vs.

52%

Nicolino

Locke

W 7-3 May 29

47%

@

53%

Koehler

Teheran

L 2-7 May 28

64%

@

36%

Chen

Blair

L 2-4 May 27

57%

@

43%

Conley

Perez

W 9-1 May 26

47%

@

53%

Fernandez

Smyly

W 4-3 May 25

40%

@

60%

Nicolino

Andriese

L 3-4 May 24

48%

vs.

52%

Koehler

Odorizzi

W 7-6 May 23

54%

vs.

46%

Chen

Moore

L 2-8 May 22

45%

vs.

55%

Conley

Scherzer

W 3-2 May 21

53%

vs.

47%

Fernandez

Ross

L 1-4 May 20

47%

vs.

53%

Nicolino

Roark

L 2-4 May 18

51%

@

49%

Koehler

Hellickson

L 1-3 May 17

52%

@

48%

Chen

Velasquez

W 5-3 May 16

52%

@

48%

Conley

Eickhoff

W 5-1 May 15

46%

@

54%

Fernandez

Ross

W 7-1 May 14

39%

@

61%

Flores

Roark

L 4-6 May 14

35%

@

65%

Nicolino

Strasburg

L 3-5 May 13

37%

@

63%

Koehler

Gonzalez

W 3-2 May 11

59%

vs.

41%

Chen

Anderson

L 2-10 May 10

60%

vs.

40%

Conley

Davies

W 4-1 May 9

65%

vs.

35%

Fernandez

Peralta

L 5-6 May 8

56%

vs.

44%

Nicolino

Nola

L 3-4 May 7

58%

vs.

42%

Koehler

Hellickson

W 6-4 May 6

59%

vs.

41%

Chen

Velasquez

W 4-0 May 5

55%

vs.

45%

Conley

Ray

W 4-3 May 4

60%

vs.

40%

Fernandez

De La Rosa

W 7-4 May 3

52%

vs.

48%

Nicolino

Corbin

L 5-14 May 1

51%

@

49%

Koehler

Peralta

W 7-5 Apr 30

53%

@

47%

Chen

Anderson

W 6-3 Apr 29

52%

@

48%

Conley

Davies

W 5-3 Apr 28

38%

@

62%

Fernandez

Maeda

W 2-0 Apr 27

39%

@

61%

Nicolino

Kazmir

W 6-3 Apr 26

27%

@

73%

Koehler

Kershaw

W 3-2 Apr 25

40%

@

60%

Chen

Stripling

W 5-4 Apr 24

44%

@

56%

Conley

Cain

L 2-7 Apr 23

48%

@

52%

Fernandez

Peavy

L 1-8 Apr 22

40%

@

60%

Cosart

Samardzija

W 5-1 Apr 21

38%

vs.

62%

Koehler

Scherzer

L 1-3 Apr 20

48%

vs.

52%

Chen

Ross

L 0-7 Apr 19

43%

vs.

57%

Conley

Strasburg

W 6-1 Apr 18

55%

vs.

45%

Fernandez

Roark

L 5-6 Apr 17

56%

vs.

44%

Cosart

Chacin

L 4-6 Apr 16

59%

vs.

41%

Koehler

Norris

L 3-6 Apr 15

65%

vs.

35%

Chen

Perez

L 1-2 Apr 13

43%

@

57%

Conley

Verrett

W 2-1 Apr 12

45%

@

55%

Fernandez

Syndergaard

W 10-3 Apr 11

40%

@

60%

Cosart

Matz

L 2-4 Apr 10

40%

@

60%

Koehler

Ross

W 6-4 Apr 7

42%

@

58%

Conley

Roark

L 3-7 Apr 6

57%

vs.

43%

Fernandez

Sanchez

L 7-8 Apr 5

51%

vs.

49%

Chen

Verlander

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