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More NFL: Forecast methodology | Every team’s Elo history
Thu | Sun | Mon | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Away team | CAR | BUF | CHI | CIN | CLE | GB | MIN | OAK | SD | TB | MIA | DET | NYG | NE | PIT | LA | ||||||||||||||||
Pre-game win probabilities Pre-game Elo point spread | 40% | 47% | 33% | 49% | 29% | 68% -5 | 71% -6 | 40% | 19% | 31% | 18% | 43% | 44% | 40% | 54% -1 | 47% | ||||||||||||||||
60% -2.5 | 53% -1 | 67% -5 | 51% -0.5 | 71% -6.5 | 32% | 29% | 60% -3 | 81% -10 | 69% -5.5 | 82% -10.5 | 57% -2 | 56% -1.5 | 60% -3 | 46% | 53% -1 | |||||||||||||||||
Home team | DEN | BAL | HOU | NYJ | PHI | JAX | TEN | NO | KC | ATL | SEA | IND | DAL | ARI | WSH | SF | ||||||||||||||||
| Day | Away | Pre-game probability Pre-game Elo spread | Home | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sept. 8 | CAR | 40% | 60% -2.5 | DEN | |
| Sun Sept. 11 | BUF | 47% | 53% -1 | BAL | |
CHI | 33% | 67% -5 | HOU | ||
CIN | 49% | 51% -0.5 | NYJ | ||
CLE | 29% | 71% -6.5 | PHI | ||
GB | 68% -5 | 32% | JAX | ||
MIN | 71% -6 | 29% | TEN | ||
OAK | 40% | 60% -3 | NO | ||
SD | 19% | 81% -10 | KC | ||
TB | 31% | 69% -5.5 | ATL | ||
MIA | 18% | 82% -10.5 | SEA | ||
DET | 43% | 57% -2 | IND | ||
NYG | 44% | 56% -1.5 | DAL | ||
NE | 40% | 60% -3 | ARI | ||
| Mon Sept. 12 | PIT | 54% -1 | 46% | WSH | |
LA | 47% | 53% -1 | SF | ||
| average simulated season | playoff chances | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sim. results | playoff chances | playoff chances | ||||||||||||
elo rating elo | 1-week change | team | division | wins w | losses l | point diff. | make playoffs make playoffs | win division win div. | first round bye | win super bowl win super bowl | ||||
| 1637 |  | Denver | AFC West | 10.9 | 5.1 | +102.4 | 74% | 48% | 37% | 11% | ||||
| 1635 |  | Seattle | NFC West | 10.5 | 5.5 | +86.9 | 69% | 47% | 32% | 10% | ||||
| 1634 |  | Carolina | NFC South | 10.6 | 5.4 | +90.6 | 75% | 66% | 36% | 10% | ||||
| 1621 |  | Kansas City | AFC West | 10.5 | 5.5 | +88.5 | 69% | 39% | 29% | 9% | ||||
| 1613 |  | Arizona | NFC West | 10.0 | 6.0 | +71.2 | 63% | 39% | 25% | 7% | ||||
| 1605 |  | New England | AFC East | 9.8 | 6.2 | +63.3 | 62% | 48% | 26% | 7% | ||||
| 1591 |  | Pittsburgh | AFC North | 9.9 | 6.1 | +67.1 | 62% | 44% | 26% | 6% | ||||
| 1582 |  | Green Bay | NFC North | 10.0 | 6.0 | +71.9 | 62% | 40% | 26% | 6% | ||||
| 1578 |  | Cincinnati | AFC North | 9.5 | 6.5 | +51.4 | 55% | 36% | 21% | 5% | ||||
| 1567 |  | Minnesota | NFC North | 9.5 | 6.5 | +52.5 | 54% | 32% | 20% | 4% | ||||
| 1522 |  | N.Y. Jets | AFC East | 7.9 | 8.1 | -4.7 | 33% | 21% | 9% | 2% | ||||
| 1519 |  | Buffalo | AFC East | 8.1 | 7.9 | +4.5 | 36% | 22% | 10% | 2% | ||||
| 1506 |  | Houston | AFC South | 8.4 | 7.6 | +12.7 | 49% | 43% | 11% | 3% | ||||
| 1503 |  | Detroit | NFC North | 8.4 | 7.6 | +13.3 | 37% | 18% | 10% | 2% | ||||
| 1496 |  | Washington | NFC East | 7.8 | 8.2 | -8.5 | 36% | 29% | 9% | 2% | ||||
| 1488 |  | Philadelphia | NFC East | 7.6 | 8.4 | -12.7 | 34% | 27% | 8% | 1% | ||||
| 1486 |  | Atlanta | NFC South | 7.2 | 8.8 | -28.7 | 25% | 15% | 5% | 1% | ||||
| 1484 |  | Indianapolis | AFC South | 8.0 | 8.0 | -1.3 | 43% | 36% | 9% | 2% | ||||
| 1479 |  | Los Angeles | NFC West | 6.9 | 9.1 | -37.7 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | ||||
| 1475 |  | Baltimore | AFC North | 7.6 | 8.4 | -14.1 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 1% | ||||
| 1469 |  | N.Y. Giants | NFC East | 7.5 | 8.5 | -16.5 | 32% | 25% | 7% | 1% | ||||
| 1464 |  | New Orleans | NFC South | 6.8 | 9.2 | -42.2 | 21% | 12% | 4% | <1% | ||||
| 1455 |  | Oakland | AFC West | 6.9 | 9.1 | -40.3 | 20% | 7% | 4% | <1% | ||||
| 1446 |  | Dallas | NFC East | 7.0 | 9.0 | -34.6 | 26% | 19% | 5% | <1% | ||||
| 1444 |  | Chicago | NFC North | 7.1 | 8.9 | -31.8 | 21% | 9% | 5% | <1% | ||||
| 1439 |  | Miami | AFC East | 6.4 | 9.6 | -57.1 | 15% | 8% | 3% | <1% | ||||
| 1438 |  | San Diego | AFC West | 6.8 | 9.2 | -42.3 | 17% | 5% | 3% | <1% | ||||
| 1437 |  | San Francisco | NFC West | 6.2 | 9.8 | -63.7 | 13% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||||
| 1412 |  | Tampa Bay | NFC South | 5.7 | 10.3 | -80.0 | 11% | 6% | 2% | <1% | ||||
| 1395 |  | Cleveland | AFC North | 5.7 | 10.3 | -79.9 | 11% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||||
| 1389 |  | Jacksonville | AFC South | 5.7 | 10.3 | -80.1 | 15% | 12% | 2% | <1% | ||||
| 1349 |  | Tennessee | AFC South | 5.2 | 10.8 | -100.4 | 11% | 8% | 1% | <1% | ||||