Updated Jun 25 at 1:32 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPostseason Chances
Team
Division
Rating
1-Week Change
RecordProj. Rec.
Run Diff.
Make PlayoffsMake Playoffs
Win
Division
Win
Div.
Win World SeriesWin
W.S.
NL West1586
+13
104-58+240>99%80%22%
AL West1579
+3
102-60+186>99%94%18%
NL East1556
+4
97-65+16295%94%12%
NL Central1548
+7
88-74+8068%64%7%
AL Central1548
+2
90-72+10680%73%9%
AL East1536
0
88-74+6266%43%6%
AL East1533
-10
88-74+11862%37%5%
NL West1533
+7
94-68+13789%12%5%
AL West1525
+2
83-79+4735%2%2%
AL West1525
+12
84-78+2639%3%3%
NL West1520
-10
92-70+7383%8%3%
AL East1512
+3
82-80+2330%13%2%
AL West1510
+2
79-83-1416%<1%<1%
AL East1504
-4
78-84-4012%5%<1%
NL East1498
0
77-85-436%2%<1%
NL Central1495
+5
79-83-2514%11%1%
NL East1493
-6
77-85-217%3%<1%
AL Central1492
+7
79-83-5220%12%<1%
NL Central1491
-5
77-85-249%7%<1%
AL Central1489
-15
74-88-406%4%<1%
NL Central1488
-6
81-81-822%17%1%
AL East1481
-4
76-86-1038%2%<1%
AL Central1479
-8
72-90-413%2%<1%
AL Central1479
+4
79-83-7520%11%<1%
NL East1476
+9
76-86-625%2%<1%
AL West1475
0
72-90-1132%<1%<1%
NL West1472
-11
65-97-139<1%<1%<1%
NL Central1455
-7
69-93-941%<1%<1%
NL West1440
+4
66-96-187<1%<1%<1%
NL East1431
0
60-102-177<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from

Chance of winning

TwinsTwins at Indians Indians

Santana vs. Tomlin

MIN

46%

CLE

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141546

CubsCubs at Marlins Marlins

Montgomery vs. Volquez

CHC

52%

MIA

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311518

OriolesOrioles at Rays Rays

Tillman vs. Odorizzi

BAL

41%

TB

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14751535

BrewersBrewers at Braves Braves

Davies vs. Teheran

MIL

45%

ATL

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771509

AngelsAngels at Red Sox Red Sox

Bridwell vs. Fister

LAA

46%

BOS

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031531

RedsReds at Nationals Nationals

Feldman vs. Roark

CIN

38%

WSH

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14551556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14761559

RangersRangers at Yankees Yankees

Martinez vs. Pineda

TEX

41%

NYY

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971561
OAK

47%

CHW

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14731492

Blue JaysBlue Jays at Royals Royals

Liriano vs. Hammel

TOR

47%

KC

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901512

MetsMets at Giants Giants

Montero vs. Moore

NYM

48%

SF

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-27-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14711487

PhilliesPhillies at Diamondbacks Dbacks

Hellickson vs. Delgado

PHI

34%

ARI

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14311533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14301547

RockiesRockies at Dodgers Dodgers

Anderson vs. McCarthy

COL

39%

LAD

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201586
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301608

AstrosAstros at Mariners Mariners

Martes vs. Miranda

HOU

50%

SEA

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15791525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15591560

TigersTigers at Padres Padres

Zimmermann vs. Richard

DET

50%

SD

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891440
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14691468
PIT

45%

STL

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14881524

Chance of winning

PhilliesPhillies at Diamondbacks Dbacks

Pivetta vs. Greinke

PHI

30%

ARI

70%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14311533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14331579

RedsReds at Cardinals Cardinals

Finnegan vs. Wacha

CIN

48%

STL

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14551491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14801492

CubsCubs at Nationals Nationals

Butler vs. Gonzalez

CHC

41%

WSH

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-37-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15081575

TwinsTwins at Red Sox Red Sox

Berrios vs. Sale

MIN

33%

BOS

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14861608

RangersRangers at Indians Indians

Hamels vs. Carrasco

TEX

42%

CLE

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15391594

YankeesYankees at White Sox White Sox

Montgomery vs. Holmberg

NYY

54%

CHW

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15271503

RockiesRockies at Giants Giants

Marquez vs. Samardzija

COL

52%

SF

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15201508

AngelsAngels at Dodgers Dodgers

Nolasco vs. Hill

LAA

34%

LAD

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101586
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-100
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating14961610

Chance of winning

RaysRays at Pirates Pirates

Cobb vs. Williams

TB

49%

PIT

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating15111515

CubsCubs at Nationals Nationals

Arrieta vs. Scherzer

CHC

39%

WSH

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+51
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15561631

OriolesOrioles at Blue Jays Blue Jays

Gausman vs. Biagini

BAL

46%

TOR

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating14831510

TwinsTwins at Red Sox Red Sox

Santiago vs. Pomeranz

MIN

38%

BOS

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14761558

BrewersBrewers at Reds Reds

Guerra vs. Adleman

MIL

52%

CIN

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+22
Adjusted team rating15111496

RangersRangers at Indians Indians

Ross vs. Clevinger

TEX

46%

CLE

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15251555

RoyalsRoyals at Tigers Tigers

Strahm vs. Verlander

KC

41%

DET

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating14761537

MetsMets at Marlins Marlins

Gsellman vs. Straily

NYM

39%

MIA

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-27+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating14691547

YankeesYankees at White Sox White Sox

Severino vs. Quintana

NYY

50%

CHW

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331531
OAK

37%

HOU

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751579
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating15021591
STL

45%

ARI

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+37+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15251558

AngelsAngels at Dodgers Dodgers

Chavez vs. Maeda

LAA

36%

LAD

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101586
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961596

BravesBraves at Padres Padres

Newcomb vs. Chacin

ATL

52%

SD

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761440
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating14861475
PHI

31%

SEA

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14311525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+26
Adjusted team rating14361572

RockiesRockies at Giants Giants

Hoffman vs. Cain

COL

58%

SF

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-38
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131458

Chance of winning

PhilliesPhillies at Mariners Mariners

Leiter Jr. vs. Hernandez

PHI

33%

SEA

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14311525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14341553

RockiesRockies at Giants Giants

Senzatela vs. Blach

COL

54%

SF

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111482

RaysRays at Pirates Pirates

Ramirez vs. Nova

TB

45%

PIT

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15051539

CubsCubs at Nationals Nationals

Lackey vs. Strasburg

CHC

43%

WSH

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15431592
BAL

43%

TOR

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14841535

TwinsTwins at Red Sox Red Sox

Mejia vs. Porcello

MIN

39%

BOS

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741550

BrewersBrewers at Reds Reds

Anderson vs. Castillo

MIL

53%

CIN

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081490

RangersRangers at Indians Indians

Darvish vs. Bauer

TEX

51%

CLE

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+41-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15661558

RoyalsRoyals at Tigers Tigers

Kennedy vs. Norris

KC

48%

DET

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14931508

MetsMets at Marlins Marlins

Matz vs. Locke

NYM

52%

MIA

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15201503

YankeesYankees at White Sox White Sox

Tanaka vs. Pelfrey

NYY

55%

CHW

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311497
OAK

34%

HOU

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751579
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14661579

CardinalsCardinals at Diamondbacks Dbacks

Wainwright vs. Godley

STL

39%

ARI

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781553
LAD

52%

LAA

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15861510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-32+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating15531536

BravesBraves at Padres Padres

Garcia vs. Perdomo

ATL

52%

SD

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761440
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14791467

Chance of winning

RangersRangers at Indians Indians

Perez vs. Kluber

TEX

36%

CLE

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+42
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141614

RoyalsRoyals at Tigers Tigers

Junis vs. Fulmer

KC

39%

DET

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14681545

AthleticsAthletics at Astros Astros

Cotton vs. Peacock

OAK

33%

HOU

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751579
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14681589
STL

46%

ARI

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901521

CubsCubs at Nationals Nationals

Lester vs. Ross

CHC

52%

WSH

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15701555

TwinsTwins at Red Sox Red Sox

Gibson vs. Price

MIN

36%

BOS

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14671564

RaysRays at Pirates Pirates

Archer vs. Taillon

TB

49%

PIT

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331541
BAL

39%

TOR

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741550

BrewersBrewers at Reds Reds

Nelson vs. Bailey

MIL

49%

CIN

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14911499

MetsMets at Marlins Marlins

Lugo vs. Urena

NYM

48%

MIA

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021519
NYY

56%

CHW

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231484

BravesBraves at Padres Padres

Foltynewicz vs. Lamet

ATL

52%

SD

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761440
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14801465

DodgersDodgers at Angels Angels

Wood vs. Ramirez

LAD

60%

LAA

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15861510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15981531

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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