Updated Jul. 20, 2017 at 5:05 PM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPostseason Chances
Team
Division
Rating
1-Week Change
RecordProj. Rec.
Run Diff.
Make PlayoffsMake Playoffs
Win
Division
Win
Div.
Win World SeriesWin
W.S.
NL West1602
+8
110-52+283>99%>99%29%
AL West1588
-4
104-58+237>99%>99%21%
NL East1555
+8
96-66+15599%98%10%
NL Central1545
+14
89-73+7973%64%7%
AL East1543
-2
90-72+9887%62%8%
AL Central1539
-13
86-76+9671%63%6%
AL East1528
-1
85-77+11453%19%3%
NL West1524
0
89-73+11675%<1%2%
AL West1518
+7
82-80+631%<1%1%
NL West1515
+4
90-72+6178%<1%2%
AL East1513
+1
84-78+1749%16%3%
AL West1513
-9
80-82+1721%<1%<1%
NL Central1507
+1
80-82+2316%9%<1%
AL West1506
+1
78-84-3014%<1%<1%
NL Central1503
-7
83-79+3028%17%1%
NL Central1503
+6
81-81-1719%10%<1%
AL Central1497
+11
77-85-2011%7%<1%
NL East1497
+1
77-85-495%<1%<1%
AL East1493
-2
76-86-828%2%<1%
AL Central1489
-9
79-83-5122%14%<1%
NL East1486
-12
76-86-423%<1%<1%
AL East1481
+3
76-86-1016%<1%<1%
AL West1481
+9
74-88-993%<1%<1%
AL Central1477
+3
80-82-8024%15%<1%
NL East1475
0
76-86-744%<1%<1%
NL West1473
-3
67-95-132<1%<1%<1%
AL Central1462
-7
68-94-95<1%<1%<1%
NL Central1450
-17
69-93-124<1%<1%<1%
NL East1443
+7
61-101-135<1%<1%<1%
NL West1441
-2
67-95-203<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from

Chance of winning

RangersRangers at Orioles Orioles

Hamels vs. Miley

TEX

56%

BAL

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371495

TigersTigers at Royals Royals

Fulmer vs. Duffy

DET

50%

KC

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+39+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15361535

BravesBraves at Dodgers Dodgers

Foltynewicz vs. McCarthy

ATL

33%

LAD

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+20
Adjusted team rating14791606

YankeesYankees at Mariners Mariners

Severino vs. Hernandez

NYY

49%

SEA

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+20
Adjusted team rating15361540

PadresPadres at Giants Giants

Chacin vs. Bumgarner

SD

38%

SF

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14411473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+44
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14561541

Chance of winning

CardinalsCardinals at Cubs Cubs

Martinez vs. Arrieta

STL

43%

CHC

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+23
Adjusted team rating15281578

AstrosAstros at Orioles Orioles

Fiers vs. Jimenez

HOU

62%

BAL

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15881481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15861500
MIL

51%

PHI

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031443
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+23
Adjusted team rating14911484

MarlinsMarlins at Reds Reds

Urena vs. Bailey

MIA

50%

CIN

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861450
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating14861484
TOR

43%

CLE

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14941541

AthleticsAthletics at Mets Mets

Blackburn vs. Matz

OAK

42%

NYM

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14771532

RangersRangers at Rays Rays

Darvish vs. Cobb

TEX

50%

TB

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating15441545

TigersTigers at Twins Twins

Sanchez vs. Santana

DET

42%

MIN

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating14851537

White SoxWhite Sox at Royals Royals

Shields vs. Kennedy

CHW

39%

KC

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14431524

PiratesPirates at Rockies Rockies

Williams vs. Hoffman

PIT

44%

COL

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+26
Adjusted team rating14991541
WSH

59%

ARI

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+530
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+20
Adjusted team rating16081544

Red SoxRed Sox at Angels Angels

Sale vs. Nolasco

BOS

59%

LAA

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+51-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+26
Adjusted team rating15901528

BravesBraves at Dodgers Dodgers

Garcia vs. Wood

ATL

28%

LAD

72%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771642

YankeesYankees at Mariners Mariners

Sabathia vs. Moore

NYY

51%

SEA

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15381532

PadresPadres at Giants Giants

Cahill vs. Samardzija

SD

42%

SF

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14411473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14551509

Chance of winning

CardinalsCardinals at Cubs Cubs

Wainwright vs. Lester

STL

38%

CHC

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961581

PadresPadres at Giants Giants

Perdomo vs. Moore

SD

44%

SF

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14411473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14421484

AstrosAstros at Orioles Orioles

McHugh vs. Tillman

HOU

63%

BAL

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15881481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15951503

BrewersBrewers at Phillies Phillies

Suter vs. Hellickson

MIL

54%

PHI

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031443
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971470

MarlinsMarlins at Reds Reds

O'Grady vs. —

MIA

51%

CIN

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861450
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14921482

Blue JaysBlue Jays at Indians Indians

Stroman vs. Salazar

TOR

46%

CLE

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171545

TigersTigers at Twins Twins

Zimmermann vs. Gibson

DET

48%

MIN

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14761487

AthleticsAthletics at Mets Mets

Manaea vs. Wheeler

OAK

50%

NYM

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15071510

RangersRangers at Rays Rays

Cashner vs. Archer

TEX

43%

TB

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15011553

White SoxWhite Sox at Royals Royals

Pelfrey vs. Vargas

CHW

40%

KC

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14541522
WSH

47%

ARI

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-29-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15261545

PiratesPirates at Rockies Rockies

Kuhl vs. Marquez

PIT

44%

COL

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14981542

Red SoxRed Sox at Angels Angels

Price vs. Ramirez

BOS

55%

LAA

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15551521

BravesBraves at Dodgers Dodgers

Teheran vs. Hill

ATL

30%

LAD

70%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14851633

YankeesYankees at Mariners Mariners

Tanaka vs. Miranda

NYY

48%

SEA

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331550

Chance of winning

MarlinsMarlins at Reds Reds

Koehler vs. Romano

MIA

49%

CIN

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861450
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14681477
TOR

42%

CLE

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121564

AthleticsAthletics at Mets Mets

Gossett vs. Montero

OAK

44%

NYM

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14591499

RangersRangers at Rays Rays

Ross vs. Odorizzi

TEX

47%

TB

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15071530

AstrosAstros at Orioles Orioles

McCullers Jr. vs. Bundy

HOU

61%

BAL

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15881481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16031527

BrewersBrewers at Phillies Phillies

Guerra vs. Eickhoff

MIL

55%

PHI

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031443
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061471

TigersTigers at Twins Twins

Boyd vs. Mejia

DET

45%

MIN

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14751513
CHW

43%

KC

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14511496

PiratesPirates at Rockies Rockies

Nova vs. Freeland

PIT

47%

COL

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151536

Red SoxRed Sox at Angels Angels

Porcello vs. Bridwell

BOS

51%

LAA

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341526

PadresPadres at Giants Giants

Lamet vs. Blach

SD

43%

SF

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14411473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14451494
WSH

51%

ARI

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15661559

BravesBraves at Dodgers Dodgers

Newcomb vs. Kershaw

ATL

24%

LAD

76%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+46
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14701672

YankeesYankees at Mariners Mariners

Cessa vs. Gaviglio

NYY

48%

SEA

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131528

CardinalsCardinals at Cubs Cubs

Wacha vs. Quintana

STL

38%

CHC

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15051589

Chance of winning

White SoxWhite Sox at Cubs Cubs

Gonzalez vs. Hendricks

CHW

33%

CHC

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14711592

AstrosAstros at Phillies Phillies

Peacock vs. Velasquez

HOU

66%

PHI

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15881443
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15851469
OAK

42%

TOR

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating14681527

RedsReds at Indians Indians

Adleman vs. —

CIN

35%

CLE

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14501539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14571564

RoyalsRoyals at Tigers Tigers

Hammel vs. Verlander

KC

42%

DET

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14851537

OriolesOrioles at Rays Rays

Gausman vs. Snell

BAL

45%

TB

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14861523

RockiesRockies at Cardinals Cardinals

Senzatela vs. Leake

COL

48%

STL

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating15061517

MarlinsMarlins at Rangers Rangers

Conley vs. Perez

MIA

45%

TEX

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14851521

BravesBraves at Diamondbacks Dbacks

Dickey vs. Greinke

ATL

38%

ARI

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14831570

TwinsTwins at Dodgers Dodgers

Berrios vs. Ryu

MIN

34%

LAD

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating14771590

MetsMets at Padres Padres

deGrom vs. Richard

NYM

61%

SD

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971441
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+33-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+22
Adjusted team rating15261448

Red SoxRed Sox at Mariners Mariners

Rodriguez vs. Paxton

BOS

45%

SEA

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15391576
PIT

56%

SF

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15071467

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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