Updated Apr 27 at 1:45 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPostseason Chances
TeamDivisionRating1-Week ChangeRecordProj. Rec.Run Diff.Make PlayoffsMake PlayoffsWin
Division
Win
Div.
Win World SeriesWin
W.S.
NL Central1571
+4
97-65+15989%78%16%
NL East1553
+9
97-65+12486%72%12%
AL West1552
+3
94-68+9677%61%11%
AL Central1551
+3
93-69+10976%65%11%
NL West1546
-7
90-72+10568%48%9%
AL East1534
-1
88-74+5255%34%6%
AL West1524
-2
83-79+3635%16%3%
AL East1521
+2
86-76+5046%26%4%
NL East1511
-12
80-82+428%10%2%
AL West1511
+5
80-82+1226%12%2%
NL West1510
-8
80-82-127%13%2%
AL East1510
+4
84-78+441%22%3%
AL East1509
0
80-82+326%12%2%
AL East1507
+1
76-86-2516%7%1%
NL East1506
0
82-80+1635%13%2%
AL Central1505
+1
82-80-935%18%2%
NL West1500
+3
83-79+2540%21%2%
NL Central1500
+3
80-82-1825%8%1%
AL West1498
+1
77-85-4418%7%1%
NL Central1492
-4
78-84-4520%6%1%
NL West1491
+6
82-80-1334%17%2%
NL Central1488
+4
78-84-1719%6%1%
AL Central1485
+7
77-85-2819%9%<1%
AL West1483
-3
75-87-6912%5%<1%
AL Central1477
-4
75-87-5412%6%<1%
NL East1469
+9
74-88-5812%3%<1%
NL East1469
-2
71-91-837%2%<1%
NL Central1469
-10
72-90-778%2%<1%
AL Central1463
-15
69-93-1125%2%<1%
NL West1445
0
67-95-1423%1%<1%
Forecast from

Chance of winning

MarlinsMarlins at Phillies Phillies

Volquez vs. Hellickson

MIA

47%

PHI

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941511

MarinersMariners at Tigers Tigers

Iwakuma vs. Verlander

SEA

43%

DET

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15181564

BravesBraves at Mets Mets

Dickey vs. Harvey

ATL

41%

NYM

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14681531
TOR

41%

STL

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating14791541

NationalsNationals at Rockies Rockies

Gonzalez vs. Senzatela

WSH

53%

COL

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15421523

DodgersDodgers at Giants Giants

Urias vs. Moore

LAD

51%

SF

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311526

AstrosAstros at Indians Indians

Fiers vs. Kluber

HOU

40%

CLE

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15391606

YankeesYankees at Red Sox Red Sox

Tanaka vs. Sale

NYY

41%

BOS

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15381601

Blue JaysBlue Jays at Cardinals Cardinals

Lawrence vs. Wainwright

TOR

44%

STL

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-35-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14721512

PadresPadres at Diamondbacks Dbacks

Weaver vs. Walker

SD

39%

ARI

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14471526

AthleticsAthletics at Angels Angels

Graveman vs. Nolasco

OAK

46%

LAA

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+80
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14911522

Chance of winning

OriolesOrioles at Yankees Yankees

Aquino vs. Sabathia

BAL

42%

NYY

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+22
Adjusted team rating14951550

MetsMets at Nationals Nationals

deGrom vs. Strasburg

NYM

40%

WSH

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+20
Adjusted team rating15201591

RaysRays at Blue Jays Blue Jays

Snell vs. Stroman

TB

46%

TOR

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+21
Adjusted team rating15041529

CubsCubs at Red Sox Red Sox

Arrieta vs. Pomeranz

CHC

55%

BOS

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15711534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15861553

MarinersMariners at Indians Indians

Miranda vs. Carrasco

SEA

38%

CLE

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15151596
CHW

42%

DET

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14551510

PiratesPirates at Marlins Marlins

Taillon vs. Conley

PIT

47%

MIA

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+21
Adjusted team rating15151540

AngelsAngels at Rangers Rangers

Skaggs vs. Martinez

LAA

48%

TEX

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+26
Adjusted team rating14901502

AthleticsAthletics at Astros Astros

Cotton vs. Morton

OAK

39%

HOU

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14771556

BravesBraves at Brewers Brewers

Colon vs. Anderson

ATL

42%

MIL

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+26
Adjusted team rating14701525

TwinsTwins at Royals Royals

Gibson vs. Kennedy

MIN

44%

KC

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14601504

RedsReds at Cardinals Cardinals

Adleman vs. Lynn

CIN

43%

STL

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14791529
COL

42%

ARI

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14741529
PHI

37%

LAD

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+22
Adjusted team rating14531547

PadresPadres at Giants Giants

Perdomo vs. Samardzija

SD

38%

SF

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14401522

Chance of winning

OriolesOrioles at Yankees Yankees

Gausman vs. Pineda

BAL

44%

NYY

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101553

MetsMets at Nationals Nationals

Wheeler vs. Scherzer

NYM

34%

WSH

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971612

RaysRays at Blue Jays Blue Jays

Andriese vs. Liriano

TB

48%

TOR

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021515

White SoxWhite Sox at Tigers Tigers

Holland vs. Fulmer

CHW

39%

DET

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14841561

RedsReds at Cardinals Cardinals

Arroyo vs. Leake

CIN

42%

STL

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14711530

CubsCubs at Red Sox Red Sox

Lackey vs. Wright

CHC

55%

BOS

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15711534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15691534

MarinersMariners at Indians Indians

Gallardo vs. Salazar

SEA

41%

CLE

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121572

PiratesPirates at Marlins Marlins

Nova vs. Straily

PIT

44%

MIA

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15071547

AthleticsAthletics at Astros Astros

Triggs vs. Musgrove

OAK

40%

HOU

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901558

BravesBraves at Brewers Brewers

Garcia vs. Nelson

ATL

44%

MIL

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14561497

TwinsTwins at Royals Royals

Hughes vs. Hammel

MIN

49%

KC

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14691474

AngelsAngels at Rangers Rangers

Chavez vs. Darvish

LAA

39%

TEX

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861566

RockiesRockies at Diamondbacks Dbacks

Anderson vs. Greinke

COL

44%

ARI

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15051548

PadresPadres at Giants Giants

Chacin vs. Cain

SD

43%

SF

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14521504
PHI

42%

LAD

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14871543

Chance of winning

OriolesOrioles at Yankees Yankees

Jimenez vs. Montgomery

BAL

47%

NYY

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15051526

RaysRays at Blue Jays Blue Jays

Archer vs. Sanchez

TB

48%

TOR

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231541

MarinersMariners at Indians Indians

De Jong vs. Tomlin

SEA

44%

CLE

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121552

White SoxWhite Sox at Tigers Tigers

Gonzalez vs. Zimmermann

CHW

50%

DET

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061503

PiratesPirates at Marlins Marlins

Kuhl vs. Koehler

PIT

45%

MIA

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14831520
NYM

43%

WSH

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111558
OAK

33%

HOU

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781603

BravesBraves at Brewers Brewers

Foltynewicz vs. Garza

ATL

47%

MIL

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14711492

TwinsTwins at Royals Royals

Santana vs. Vargas

MIN

54%

KC

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+44+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15211496

RedsReds at Cardinals Cardinals

Garrett vs. Wacha

CIN

42%

STL

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14641517

AngelsAngels at Rangers Rangers

Ramirez vs. Perez

LAA

46%

TEX

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14931524

PadresPadres at Giants Giants

Richard vs. Blach

SD

39%

SF

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14341515

RockiesRockies at Diamondbacks Dbacks

Marquez vs. Corbin

COL

45%

ARI

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14681505

PhilliesPhillies at Dodgers Dodgers

Pivetta vs. Kershaw

PHI

27%

LAD

73%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+54
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14521624

CubsCubs at Red Sox Red Sox

Hendricks vs. Rodriguez

CHC

55%

BOS

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15711534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15901554

Chance of winning

Blue JaysBlue Jays at Yankees Yankees

Estrada vs. Severino

TOR

49%

NYY

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15251533

OriolesOrioles at Red Sox Red Sox

Miley vs. Porcello

BAL

43%

BOS

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15141561

PiratesPirates at Reds Reds

Cole vs. Feldman

PIT

50%

CIN

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14991500

IndiansIndians at Tigers Tigers

Bauer vs. Norris

CLE

52%

DET

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15341520

RaysRays at Marlins Marlins

Odorizzi vs. Chen

TB

48%

MIA

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15191535

MetsMets at Braves Braves

Gsellman vs. Teheran

NYM

45%

ATL

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-31+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14771511

PhilliesPhillies at Cubs Cubs

Velasquez vs. Anderson

PHI

38%

CHC

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691571
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-47
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+21
Adjusted team rating14601545

RangersRangers at Astros Astros

Cashner vs. McCullers Jr.

TEX

35%

HOU

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-32+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14771585

White SoxWhite Sox at Royals Royals

Quintana vs. Duffy

CHW

50%

KC

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15001499

BrewersBrewers at Cardinals Cardinals

Davies vs. Martinez

MIL

43%

STL

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14871539

GiantsGiants at Dodgers Dodgers

Cueto vs. Hill

SF

41%

LAD

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15221585

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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