Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPostseason Chances
Team
Division
Rating
1-Week Change
RecordProj. Rec.
Run Diff.
Make PlayoffsMake Playoffs
Win
Division
Win
Div.
Win World SeriesWin
W.S.
AL Central1602
+6
102-60+25228%
AL East1562
+7
95-67+13597%11%
AL East1559
0
91-71+1913%6%
NL West1558
-10
103-59+17815%
NL East1557
+4
98-64+15814%
AL West1554
+4
99-63+16011%
NL Central1549
0
90-72+107>99%97%8%
NL West1539
-9
93-69+146>99%4%
NL Central1528
+3
85-77+7921%2%<1%
AL West1513
+5
80-82+221%<1%
NL Central1512
+4
86-76+4029%<1%<1%
AL West1512
-11
80-82-31%<1%
AL Central1509
+7
85-77+1996%<1%
AL West1505
-9
78-84-27<1%<1%
AL East1502
+8
79-83-14<1%<1%
NL West1502
-10
87-75+4951%<1%
AL West1490
+11
75-87-89
AL East1490
-4
75-87-103
AL Central1485
+5
80-82-64<1%<1%
AL East1484
-8
77-85-80
NL East1483
+8
77-85-45
NL East1476
-1
74-88-75
NL Central1474
-2
73-89-83
NL East1464
-5
70-92-117
NL West1462
+9
64-98-147
NL East1460
+1
64-98-112
NL West1460
+9
73-89-184
AL Central1458
-5
65-97-119
NL Central1453
-7
69-93-120
AL Central1446
-10
65-97-153
Forecast from

Chance of winning

TwinsTwins at Tigers Tigers

Berrios vs. Farmer

MIN

59%

DET

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151448

YankeesYankees at Blue Jays Blue Jays

Garcia vs. Stroman

NYY

51%

TOR

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15391535

Red SoxRed Sox at Reds Reds

Fister vs. Stephens

BOS

59%

CIN

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15621453
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371476

NationalsNationals at Mets Mets

Scherzer vs. deGrom

WSH

59%

NYM

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15921527

PhilliesPhillies at Braves Braves

Pivetta vs. Gohara

PHI

42%

ATL

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14431499

RaysRays at Orioles Orioles

Archer vs. Bundy

TB

46%

BAL

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091535
STL

52%

PIT

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-130
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151498

RoyalsRoyals at White Sox White Sox

Kennedy vs. Giolito

KC

47%

CHW

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781498

CubsCubs at Brewers Brewers

Quintana vs. Anderson

CHC

51%

MIL

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15601557
TEX

51%

OAK

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101501

MarlinsMarlins at Diamondbacks Dbacks

Straily vs. Corbin

MIA

43%

ARI

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941545

GiantsGiants at Dodgers Dodgers

Stratton vs. Kershaw

SF

29%

LAD

71%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+41
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14651623
CLE

67%

SEA

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating16021505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+53+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16551534

RockiesRockies at Padres Padres

Marquez vs. Perdomo

COL

53%

SD

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031480

AngelsAngels at Astros Astros

Skaggs vs. McCullers Jr.

LAA

40%

HOU

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121554
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161582

Chance of winning

RoyalsRoyals at Yankees Yankees

Junis vs. Sabathia

KC

39%

NYY

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14991580

BravesBraves at Mets Mets

Sims vs. Lugo

ATL

46%

NYM

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14691494
WSH

52%

PHI

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+21
Adjusted team rating15261513

Blue JaysBlue Jays at Red Sox Red Sox

Anderson vs. Pomeranz

TOR

31%

BOS

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-35+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14531587

BravesBraves at Mets Mets

Fried vs. Montero

ATL

49%

NYM

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741483

AstrosAstros at Rangers Rangers

McHugh vs. Cashner

HOU

52%

TEX

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+20
Adjusted team rating15571540

AngelsAngels at White Sox White Sox

Nolasco vs. Shields

LAA

54%

CHW

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15021471

CubsCubs at Cardinals Cardinals

Lester vs. Weaver

CHC

45%

STL

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15381569

MarlinsMarlins at Rockies Rockies

Despaigne vs. Chatwood

MIA

44%

COL

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14821523
SF

36%

ARI

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14681569

MarinersMariners at Athletics Athletics

Hernandez vs. Gossett

SEA

50%

OAK

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15061505

PadresPadres at Dodgers Dodgers

Wood vs. Darvish

SD

28%

LAD

72%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-33+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating14261589

Chance of winning

RaysRays at Yankees Yankees

Snell vs. Severino

TB

36%

NYY

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081607

NationalsNationals at Phillies Phillies

Gonzalez vs. Thompson

WSH

64%

PHI

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15681471

OriolesOrioles at Pirates Pirates

Gausman vs. Kuhl

BAL

51%

PIT

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating15121503
TOR

33%

BOS

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+42
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081628

TwinsTwins at Indians Indians

Colon vs. Tomlin

MIN

34%

CLE

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+1+22
Adjusted team rating14821596

BravesBraves at Mets Mets

Dickey vs. Flexen

ATL

52%

NYM

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14801462

RedsReds at Brewers Brewers

Davis vs. Davies

CIN

34%

MIL

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14531512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating14351548

CubsCubs at Cardinals Cardinals

Arrieta vs. Martinez

CHC

49%

STL

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15641569

AstrosAstros at Rangers Rangers

Keuchel vs. Hamels

HOU

51%

TEX

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15681560

AngelsAngels at White Sox White Sox

Bridwell vs. Fulmer

LAA

54%

CHW

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131485

TigersTigers at Royals Royals

Sanchez vs. Gaviglio

DET

41%

KC

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14461485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+21
Adjusted team rating14331496

MarlinsMarlins at Rockies Rockies

Urena vs. Anderson

MIA

45%

COL

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15011536
SF

33%

ARI

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14531575
SEA

53%

OAK

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15391520

PadresPadres at Dodgers Dodgers

Lamet vs. Wood

SD

35%

LAD

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14851589

Chance of winning

AstrosAstros at Rangers Rangers

Verlander vs. Martinez

HOU

62%

TEX

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+43-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15971508

MarlinsMarlins at Rockies Rockies

Conley vs. Gray

MIA

40%

COL

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811550

MarinersMariners at Athletics Athletics

Ramirez vs. Graveman

SEA

49%

OAK

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15181522

GiantsGiants at Diamondbacks Dbacks

Samardzija vs. Greinke

SF

35%

ARI

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741583

CubsCubs at Cardinals Cardinals

Lackey vs. Wacha

CHC

49%

STL

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15421550

RaysRays at Yankees Yankees

Andriese vs. Tanaka

TB

37%

NYY

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-130
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14891583

NationalsNationals at Phillies Phillies

Roark vs. Leiter Jr.

WSH

61%

PHI

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15491475

OriolesOrioles at Pirates Pirates

Miley vs. Williams

BAL

45%

PIT

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14731507

Blue JaysBlue Jays at Red Sox Red Sox

Estrada vs. Porcello

TOR

41%

BOS

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031563

TwinsTwins at Indians Indians

Mejia vs. Salazar

MIN

37%

CLE

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111602

BravesBraves at Mets Mets

Newcomb vs. Gsellman

ATL

50%

NYM

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781476

AngelsAngels at White Sox White Sox

Richards vs. Lopez

LAA

58%

CHW

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15391479

RedsReds at Brewers Brewers

Bailey vs. Woodruff

CIN

38%

MIL

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14531512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14541537

TigersTigers at Royals Royals

Zimmermann vs. Vargas

DET

38%

KC

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14461485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14271512

PadresPadres at Dodgers Dodgers

Richard vs. Hill

SD

31%

LAD

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14621597

Chance of winning

TwinsTwins at Indians Indians

Gibson vs. Bauer

MIN

37%

CLE

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151608

RedsReds at Brewers Brewers

Romano vs. Suter

CIN

40%

MIL

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14531512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+120
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14651536

CubsCubs at Cardinals Cardinals

Hendricks vs. Lynn

CHC

53%

STL

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15711553

RaysRays at Yankees Yankees

Cobb vs. Gray

TB

39%

NYY

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121587

PiratesPirates at Nationals Nationals

Brault vs. Jackson

PIT

43%

WSH

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741557
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-62
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating14701517

AstrosAstros at Red Sox Red Sox

Peacock vs. Rodriguez

HOU

45%

BOS

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15531587

BravesBraves at Marlins Marlins

Teheran vs. Peters

ATL

48%

MIA

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+20
Adjusted team rating14881500

AthleticsAthletics at Rangers Rangers

Manaea vs. Gonzalez

OAK

43%

TEX

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating14911539
LAA

58%

CHW

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061453

TigersTigers at Royals Royals

Norris vs. Hammel

DET

41%

KC

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14461485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14411503

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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