Updated May 27 at 10:55 PM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPostseason Chances
Team
Division
Rating
1-Week Change
RecordProj. Rec.
Run Diff.
Make PlayoffsMake Playoffs
Win
Division
Win
Div.
Win World SeriesWin
W.S.
AL West1566
-1
99-63+14595%88%15%
NL West1564
+3
98-64+18091%61%14%
NL Central1554
0
91-71+9573%59%9%
NL East1553
+3
96-66+14593%90%12%
AL Central1542
-4
89-73+7268%57%7%
AL East1540
+11
89-73+7865%38%8%
AL East1528
-4
88-74+7561%35%5%
AL East1517
+7
80-82-722%7%2%
NL West1517
+11
91-71+7170%24%4%
AL East1514
+1
82-80+3031%10%3%
NL West1514
+7
88-74+7058%15%3%
NL Central1510
-4
83-79+2235%19%3%
AL West1510
-10
79-83+220%4%2%
AL West1505
+3
80-82-2221%4%2%
NL East1504
-1
77-85-2113%6%<1%
AL West1503
-20
77-85-4313%2%<1%
AL East1502
-11
81-81-1827%9%2%
AL Central1498
-4
79-83-2621%13%2%
NL Central1494
+4
78-84-4314%7%<1%
NL West1494
-4
75-87-797%1%<1%
NL Central1493
-9
81-81+524%12%1%
AL Central1488
+8
81-81-2631%20%1%
AL Central1487
+11
75-87-1112%7%<1%
AL West1479
+1
74-88-897%1%<1%
NL Central1476
+6
74-88-468%3%<1%
NL East1475
+1
71-91-774%2%<1%
NL East1472
+1
74-88-747%2%<1%
AL Central1471
+5
72-90-936%4%<1%
NL East1449
-12
67-95-1081%<1%<1%
NL West1430
-1
62-100-206<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from

Chance of winning

CardinalsCardinals at Rockies Rockies

Wainwright vs. Freeland

STL

45%

COL

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941526

BravesBraves at Giants Giants

Foltynewicz vs. Blach

ATL

46%

SF

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14761501

Chance of winning

OAK

40%

NYY

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14891562

RangersRangers at Blue Jays Blue Jays

Cashner vs. Biagini

TEX

45%

TOR

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901522

RoyalsRoyals at Indians Indians

Duffy vs. Tomlin

KC

42%

CLE

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14891549

AngelsAngels at Marlins Marlins

Shoemaker vs. Urena

LAA

53%

MIA

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+140
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191499

MarinersMariners at Red Sox Red Sox

Bergman vs. Porcello

SEA

39%

BOS

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14821562

RedsReds at Phillies Phillies

Feldman vs. Eflin

CIN

55%

PHI

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761449
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14921458
SD

33%

WSH

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14301553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14361559

TigersTigers at White Sox White Sox

Zimmermann vs. Gonzalez

DET

43%

CHW

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14681515

OriolesOrioles at Astros Astros

Asher vs. McCullers Jr.

BAL

36%

HOU

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021566
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111611
ARI

47%

MIL

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861507

RaysRays at Twins Twins

Cobb vs. Gibson

TB

54%

MIN

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141489
STL

46%

COL

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141539

BravesBraves at Giants Giants

Dickey vs. Cueto

ATL

41%

SF

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14681533

CubsCubs at Dodgers Dodgers

Lester vs. Kershaw

CHC

41%

LAD

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541564
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29+55
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15831643

MetsMets at Pirates Pirates

Harvey vs. Glasnow

NYM

51%

PIT

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14951488

Chance of winning

YankeesYankees at Orioles Orioles

Montgomery vs. Bundy

NYY

47%

BAL

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15181542

Red SoxRed Sox at White Sox White Sox

Price vs. Quintana

BOS

51%

CHW

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15451535

AstrosAstros at Twins Twins

Morton vs. Santana

HOU

48%

MIN

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15661488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+47
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15491559
LAD

54%

STL

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15641510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+21
Adjusted team rating15681540

MarinersMariners at Rockies Rockies

Gaviglio vs. Chatwood

SEA

44%

COL

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating14971542
WSH

55%

SF

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15421507

DiamondbacksDbacks at Pirates Pirates

Delgado vs. Williams

ARI

49%

PIT

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14981504
OAK

34%

CLE

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14781592

BrewersBrewers at Mets Mets

Garza vs. Gsellman

MIL

48%

NYM

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14801496

CubsCubs at Padres Padres

Hendricks vs. Cosart

CHC

68%

SD

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541430
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+20
Adjusted team rating15791445

TigersTigers at Royals Royals

Norris vs. Hammel

DET

52%

KC

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14901474

RedsReds at Blue Jays Blue Jays

Bonilla vs. Stroman

CIN

39%

TOR

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14691545

PhilliesPhillies at Marlins Marlins

Hellickson vs. Volquez

PHI

45%

MIA

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14551490

RaysRays at Rangers Rangers

Ramirez vs. Perez

TB

48%

TEX

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15161529

BravesBraves at Angels Angels

Teheran vs. Nolasco

ATL

44%

LAA

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+20
Adjusted team rating14831523

Chance of winning

OAK

39%

CLE

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14751551
LAD

54%

STL

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15641510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15491521

YankeesYankees at Orioles Orioles

Severino vs. Tillman

NYY

48%

BAL

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231535
ARI

48%

PIT

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221537

RedsReds at Blue Jays Blue Jays

Wojciechowski vs. House

CIN

44%

TOR

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14791517

MarinersMariners at Rockies Rockies

Miranda vs. Anderson

SEA

44%

COL

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091551

PhilliesPhillies at Marlins Marlins

Velasquez vs. Nicolino

PHI

45%

MIA

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14521487

BrewersBrewers at Mets Mets

Davies vs. —

MIL

45%

NYM

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14911525

RaysRays at Rangers Rangers

Andriese vs. Martinez

TB

51%

TEX

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091502
BOS

60%

CHW

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+45+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15851512

AstrosAstros at Twins Twins

Fiers vs. Berrios

HOU

55%

MIN

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15661488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15401501

TigersTigers at Royals Royals

Verlander vs. Almonte

DET

57%

KC

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15261478

NationalsNationals at Giants Giants

Gonzalez vs. Samardzija

WSH

52%

SF

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371523

BravesBraves at Angels Angels

Colon vs. —

ATL

41%

LAA

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14621528

CubsCubs at Padres Padres

Butler vs. Lamet

CHC

57%

SD

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541430
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-42+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121467

Chance of winning

ARI

49%

PIT

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15001507

RedsReds at Blue Jays Blue Jays

Adleman vs. Bolsinger

CIN

48%

TOR

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-41
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14851500
PHI

40%

MIA

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14511524

AstrosAstros at Twins Twins

Musgrove vs. Santiago

HOU

55%

MIN

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15661488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-210
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15451512

CubsCubs at Padres Padres

Arrieta vs. Perdomo

CHC

64%

SD

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541430
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+40
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15581454
OAK

36%

CLE

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971594

YankeesYankees at Orioles Orioles

Tanaka vs. Gausman

NYY

51%

BAL

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+50
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331526

BrewersBrewers at Mets Mets

Guerra vs. deGrom

MIL

47%

NYM

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+37+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301554

RaysRays at Rangers Rangers

Archer vs. —

TB

50%

TEX

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331531

Red SoxRed Sox at White Sox White Sox

Pomeranz vs. Pelfrey

BOS

55%

CHW

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311493

TigersTigers at Royals Royals

Boyd vs. Kennedy

DET

46%

KC

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-27+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14711501
LAD

52%

STL

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15641510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15701554

BravesBraves at Angels Angels

Garcia vs. Chavez

ATL

45%

LAA

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771511

RockiesRockies at Mariners Mariners

Senzatela vs. Paxton

COL

44%

SEA

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15191559

NationalsNationals at Giants Giants

Scherzer vs. Cain

WSH

64%

SF

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+33-33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15861485

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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