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The Astros have a 100% chance of winning the World Series.
Team rating
Starting pitchers
| Pitcher score | Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to team rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Justin Verlander | 62.2 | +44 |
 | Dallas Keuchel | 55.2 | +11 |
 | Charlie Morton | 53.5 | +3 |
 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 52.2 | -3 |
Completed games
W, 5-1
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1570 | 1587 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1566 | 1620 |
L, 3-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1573 | 1584 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +43 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1615 | 1624 |
W, 13-12
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1571 | 1586 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | +34 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1609 | 1620 |
L, 6-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1575 | 1582 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1598 | 1583 |
W, 5-3
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1572 | 1585 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1593 | 1598 |
W, 7-6
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1570 | 1587 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +46 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1616 | 1627 |
L, 3-1
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1572 | 1585 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +2 | +29 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1591 | 1644 |
W, 4-0
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1568 | 1574 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1587 | 1577 |
W, 7-1
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1564 | 1578 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +44 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1631 | 1591 |
L, 5-0
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1568 | 1574 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +20 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1588 | 1611 |
L, 6-4
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1570 | 1572 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1587 |
L, 8-1
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1575 | 1567 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1575 | 1592 |
W, 2-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1574 | 1569 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +39 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1637 | 1586 |
W, 2-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1572 | 1570 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +27 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1616 | 1582 |
W, 5-4
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1570 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1576 | 1558 |
L, 10-3
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1576 | 1546 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1575 | 1551 |
W, 8-2
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1572 | 1549 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1611 | 1554 |
W, 8-2
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1569 | 1553 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +42 | +37 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +27 | +3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1638 | 1593 |
W, 4-3
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1567 | 1555 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | -34 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1570 | 1545 |
L, 6-3
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1569 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1570 | 1577 |
W, 3-2
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1568 | 1554 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1559 |
W, 12-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1563 | 1559 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1587 |
W, 12-2
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +42 | -26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1602 | 1499 |
W, 14-3
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | +25 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1570 | 1555 |
W, 11-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1555 | 1537 |
L, 7-5
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1582 | 1516 |
W, 6-2
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1579 | 1507 |
W, 3-0
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +41 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1616 | 1535 |
L, 3-1
68%
32%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1456 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1594 | 1460 |
W, 4-3
69%
31%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1457 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1580 | 1445 |
W, 3-1
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1458 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1584 | 1470 |
W, 7-1
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +39 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1613 | 1507 |
W, 8-6
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1548 | 1516 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1589 | 1527 |
W, 5-2
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1546 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | +42 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1570 | 1558 |
W, 5-2
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1544 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1538 |
L, 9-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1548 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1529 | 1545 |
W, 1-0
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1547 | 1519 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +34 | +24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1581 | 1566 |
L, 10-2
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1505 |
L, 11-4
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1559 | 1486 |
L, 11-1
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1566 | 1484 |
L, 9-8
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1564 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1575 | 1482 |
W, 5-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1571 | 1519 |
W, 3-1
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1561 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +33 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1594 | 1532 |
W, 6-2
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1575 | 1545 |
W, 8-6
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1454 |
W, 4-1
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1580 | 1480 |
W, 12-8
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1582 | 1478 |
W, 5-1
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -35 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1564 | 1487 |
L, 8-1
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +23 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1580 | 1522 |
L, 12-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1554 | 1504 |
W, 7-5
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1519 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1560 | 1534 |
L, 7-6
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1517 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1557 | 1546 |
W, 2-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1565 | 1554 |
L, 5-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1608 | 1569 |
W, 6-1
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1561 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | -48 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1574 | 1513 |
L, 4-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1561 | 1559 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1590 | 1536 |
L, 3-2
68%
32%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1563 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1585 | 1451 |
W, 3-0
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1466 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1594 | 1478 |
W, 3-1
68%
32%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1561 | 1467 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +20 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1605 | 1473 |
L, 4-0
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1565 | 1520 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1582 | 1491 |
W, 9-5
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1563 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1585 | 1512 |
W, 9-4
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1524 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1560 | 1533 |
L, 2-0
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1568 | 1570 |
W, 2-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1561 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1580 | 1535 |
L, 8-3
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1564 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1563 | 1525 |
L, 6-4
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1566 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1564 | 1556 |
L, 3-2
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1567 | 1453 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +28 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1565 | 1505 |
L, 7-1
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1572 | 1449 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1586 | 1483 |
L, 8-5
70%
30%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1575 | 1445 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +26 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1600 | 1454 |
W, 7-6
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1574 | 1492 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1596 | 1514 |
L, 4-3
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1576 | 1490 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1597 | 1496 |
W, 16-7
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1574 | 1493 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1598 | 1474 |
L, 5-3
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1576 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1610 | 1497 |
L, 3-0
69%
31%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1580 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +28 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1632 | 1494 |
L, 6-4
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1582 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1607 | 1523 |
W, 14-7
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1579 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1593 | 1517 |
L, 13-1
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1585 | 1488 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1595 | 1534 |
L, 5-3
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1588 | 1486 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1593 | 1493 |
W, 6-5
68%
32%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1587 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +33 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1620 | 1489 |
L, 9-0
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1593 | 1443 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1596 | 1489 |
W, 5-0
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1591 | 1445 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1577 | 1455 |
W, 13-4
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1589 | 1447 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1587 | 1472 |
L, 9-7
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1591 | 1481 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1606 | 1528 |
W, 8-4
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1589 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1595 | 1506 |
W, 8-7
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1588 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1586 | 1502 |
L, 4-1
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1591 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | +31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1599 | 1546 |
W, 6-2
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1589 | 1517 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1606 | 1507 |
L, 9-7
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1592 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1635 | 1522 |
W, 5-3
70%
30%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1591 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1612 | 1461 |
L, 4-2
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1593 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -29 | +37 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1588 | 1510 |
W, 10-5
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1592 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +30 | +6 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1612 | 1487 |
W, 19-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1586 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +25 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1576 | 1550 |
L, 7-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1589 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1585 | 1538 |
W, 12-2
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1585 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1573 | 1548 |
L, 7-4
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1588 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1609 | 1507 |
W, 10-4
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1585 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1553 | 1495 |
W, 16-4
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1581 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1568 | 1514 |
W, 8-1
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1578 | 1539 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1595 | 1545 |
W, 7-6
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1577 | 1540 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1580 | 1542 |
L, 13-4
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1583 | 1534 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +26 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1633 | 1527 |
W, 6-1
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1581 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1593 | 1472 |
W, 11-8
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1580 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1580 | 1470 |
L, 6-4
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1582 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1595 | 1503 |
W, 8-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1579 | 1525 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1559 | 1560 |
W, 5-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1577 | 1527 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +23 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1600 | 1552 |
L, 13-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1582 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1555 | 1551 |
W, 12-9
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1580 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1554 | 1496 |
W, 5-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1578 | 1472 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1564 | 1523 |
W, 8-4
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1576 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1557 | 1499 |
W, 4-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1574 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1551 | 1481 |
L, 6-5
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1576 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1577 | 1544 |
W, 7-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1573 | 1539 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1565 | 1533 |
L, 2-1
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1574 | 1537 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1582 | 1528 |
W, 13-2
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1571 | 1521 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1508 |
L, 4-2
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1573 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | -35 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1576 | 1483 |
L, 6-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1576 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | +37 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1579 | 1549 |
L, 12-6
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1581 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1579 | 1493 |
W, 3-1
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1579 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1580 | 1499 |
L, 9-4
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1583 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1587 | 1511 |
W, 6-1
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1581 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1598 | 1482 |
L, 7-5
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1584 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +32 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1616 | 1513 |
L, 9-7
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1586 | 1468 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1562 | 1477 |
W, 7-3
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1584 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -25 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1557 | 1496 |
W, 7-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1582 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1562 | 1529 |
W, 6-5
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1581 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1600 | 1518 |
W, 7-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1578 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +29 | +34 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1606 | 1572 |
W, 17-6
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1574 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -25 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1503 |
W, 7-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1572 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1546 | 1496 |
W, 16-8
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1567 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | +47 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1558 |
W, 8-4
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1566 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1611 | 1511 |
W, 5-2
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1564 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +28 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1616 | 1506 |
W, 2-0
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1563 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1502 |
W, 7-6
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | +36 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1564 | 1539 |
L, 6-3
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1565 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1491 |
W, 6-2
69%
31%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1563 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +20 | -29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1607 | 1473 |
W, 1-0
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | +36 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1563 | 1536 |
L, 8-6
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1564 | 1548 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1570 | 1536 |
L, 3-0
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1567 | 1546 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1569 | 1524 |
L, 5-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1569 | 1544 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1579 | 1525 |
W, 3-0
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1567 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1584 | 1505 |
W, 12-2
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1564 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +29 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1593 | 1496 |
W, 7-2
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1561 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1529 |
W, 10-7
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1533 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1546 | 1578 |
L, 11-6
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1530 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1541 | 1545 |
W, 5-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1533 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1544 |
W, 3-2
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1534 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +28 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1583 | 1568 |
W, 4-2
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1462 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1563 | 1458 |
W, 8-3
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1464 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1462 |
W, 5-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1533 |
L, 2-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1565 | 1523 |
W, 7-6
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +31 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1582 | 1508 |
L, 10-4
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1495 |
W, 10-1
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | -31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1563 | 1474 |
W, 8-7
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | -23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1562 | 1483 |
W, 6-2
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1585 | 1474 |
W, 7-2
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1482 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1602 | 1477 |
L, 2-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1559 | 1487 |
W, 9-4
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1482 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1555 | 1476 |
L, 4-3
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1551 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1539 | 1606 |
L, 7-6
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1550 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1565 | 1558 |
W, 4-2
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +26 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1576 | 1552 |
W, 6-4
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1530 |
L, 6-3
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1536 | 1529 |
W, 6-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1536 | 1534 |
W, 2-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1549 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1581 | 1509 |
W, 5-1
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1547 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +25 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1596 | 1481 |
L, 5-2
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1499 |
W, 3-0
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1548 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1552 | 1480 |
W, 10-6
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1546 | 1486 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1559 | 1528 |
W, 7-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1543 | 1488 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1564 | 1519 |
W, 10-5
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1540 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1533 |
W, 7-5
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1538 | 1524 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1541 |
L, 6-0
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1541 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | +15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1558 |
W, 5-4
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1540 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1576 | 1470 |
L, 7-3
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1544 | 1472 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1587 | 1486 |
L, 5-1
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1547 | 1468 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1565 | 1466 |
L, 4-2
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1525 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1562 | 1521 |
W, 5-3
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1548 | 1526 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1551 | 1537 |
W, 2-1
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1547 | 1528 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1581 | 1530 |
W, 3-0
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1545 | 1529 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1584 | 1525 |
AL West standings
| Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | AstrosAstros101-61 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
 | AngelsAngels80-82 | 21.0 | — | — | ||
 | RangersRangers78-84 | 23.0 | — | — | ||
 | MarinersMariners78-84 | 23.0 | — | — | ||
 | AthleticsAthletics75-87 | 26.0 | — | — |
This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »
For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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