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The Blue Jays are done for the season.
Team rating
Starting pitchers
| Pitcher score | Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to team rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | J.A. Happ | 54.8 | +24 |
 | Marcus Stroman | 53.3 | +17 |
 | Marco Estrada | 50.4 | +3 |
 | Joe Biagini | 45.1 | -21 |
 | Brett Anderson | 43.8 | -28 |
Completed games
W, 2-1
33%
67%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1495 | 1563 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -33 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1462 | 1585 |
L, 2-1
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1562 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1583 |
L, 4-0
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1586 |
L, 10-7
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1557 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1561 |
W, 9-4
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1495 | 1561 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | +44 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1629 |
W, 6-4
32%
68%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1492 | 1564 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -35 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1455 | 1589 |
W, 9-5
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1559 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1539 |
L, 5-1
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1492 | 1557 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1561 |
W, 8-1
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1487 | 1561 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1567 |
L, 1-0
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1489 | 1482 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1480 |
L, 15-5
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -28 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1489 | 1494 |
W, 5-2
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1492 | 1479 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1470 |
L, 13-7
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1477 | 1532 |
W, 7-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1496 | 1531 |
W, 4-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1506 | 1507 |
L, 3-2
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -29 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1459 | 1536 |
L, 2-1
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1492 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1514 |
W, 3-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | +29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1494 | 1528 |
W, 4-3
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1489 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1486 |
W, 8-2
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1487 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1451 |
W, 5-4
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1486 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -31 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1479 | 1463 |
L, 5-4
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1487 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +20 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1445 |
L, 6-1
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1544 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1476 | 1551 |
L, 3-2
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1543 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1561 |
W, 10-4
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1487 | 1547 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1554 |
L, 5-4
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1488 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | -23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1456 | 1509 |
W, 7-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1485 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1532 |
L, 1-0
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1486 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1462 | 1551 |
W, 11-8
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1483 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1544 |
L, 7-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1486 | 1550 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1531 |
L, 3-0
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1488 | 1548 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -35 | +43 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1477 | 1591 |
L, 6-5
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1489 | 1547 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1549 |
L, 7-2
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1492 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1488 |
W, 10-9
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1484 |
L, 6-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1492 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1466 |
L, 2-0
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -36 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1460 | 1527 |
W, 7-6
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +26 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1510 |
L, 6-5
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1489 | 1540 |
L, 6-5
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1542 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1585 |
L, 4-3
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1542 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1478 | 1575 |
L, 7-4
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1540 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +20 | +15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1579 |
W, 5-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1517 |
W, 3-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1506 |
L, 6-4
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1488 |
W, 2-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1485 |
W, 7-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1498 |
W, 7-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1505 | 1506 |
L, 4-2
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1497 |
W, 4-0
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1538 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1541 |
L, 11-5
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1547 |
W, 4-2
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1538 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1540 |
L, 7-6
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1492 | 1574 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1596 |
W, 4-3
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1576 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1496 | 1597 |
L, 16-7
33%
67%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1574 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1598 |
W, 5-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1453 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1461 |
W, 8-4
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1488 | 1455 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1473 |
L, 7-6
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1453 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1490 | 1454 |
W, 11-10
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1489 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1487 |
L, 6-5
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1501 | 1497 |
L, 7-2
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1530 | 1503 |
W, 8-4
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1542 | 1496 |
W, 3-2
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1472 |
W, 4-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1488 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1492 |
W, 4-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1486 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1493 | 1476 |
L, 8-1
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1488 | 1544 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | +47 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1506 | 1615 |
L, 2-1
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1543 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1549 |
L, 13-3
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1539 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1494 | 1541 |
W, 8-6
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1545 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -38 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1477 | 1531 |
L, 5-1
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1543 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1564 |
L, 5-4
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1495 | 1542 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | -30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1536 |
W, 4-3
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1543 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1566 |
L, 6-5
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1507 |
L, 11-1
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | +36 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1545 |
W, 7-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1495 | 1488 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +7 | +32 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1540 |
L, 19-1
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1586 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +25 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1550 | 1576 |
W, 7-2
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1589 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1585 |
L, 12-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1585 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +23 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1548 | 1573 |
W, 7-4
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1588 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1507 | 1609 |
W, 7-6
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1535 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1557 |
W, 4-1
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1538 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1571 |
L, 6-3
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1508 | 1557 |
L, 15-1
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1541 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1507 | 1540 |
L, 7-1
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1539 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +47 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1513 | 1586 |
L, 7-4
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1504 |
L, 2-0
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1484 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1553 | 1478 |
W, 4-0
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1486 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1489 |
L, 3-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1484 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1486 |
W, 8-2
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1492 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1490 | 1512 |
L, 3-2
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1491 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1534 |
L, 5-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | -29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1486 |
L, 11-4
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1519 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1534 |
W, 7-5
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1521 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1553 |
L, 6-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1500 | 1510 |
W, 7-6
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1520 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1534 |
W, 7-3
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1547 | 1472 |
L, 5-2
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1474 |
L, 11-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1536 | 1498 |
W, 7-6
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1517 |
L, 8-1
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1557 | 1500 |
W, 4-0
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1524 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1580 |
W, 4-2
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1526 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1563 |
L, 4-2
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1524 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1505 | 1545 |
W, 7-5
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1491 |
L, 4-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +20 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1494 |
L, 5-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | +26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1524 |
W, 3-2
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1535 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1546 | 1534 |
L, 7-0
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1532 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1523 |
W, 7-5
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1534 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1545 |
L, 12-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1528 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +28 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1574 | 1526 |
W, 5-4
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -41 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1484 |
W, 6-4
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1559 | 1479 |
W, 17-2
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1543 | 1472 |
L, 3-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1490 |
W, 3-1
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | +35 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1547 |
W, 7-6
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -40 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1494 |
W, 8-4
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1515 |
W, 4-3
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +25 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1517 |
W, 3-1
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1530 | 1539 |
L, 7-5
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -38 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1472 | 1536 |
L, 5-3
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1543 |
W, 9-0
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1518 |
L, 8-4
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1494 |
L, 9-5
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1467 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1462 |
L, 10-6
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1464 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -37 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1455 |
W, 3-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1524 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1552 | 1516 |
W, 7-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1527 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -25 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1502 |
W, 4-0
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1529 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1510 |
W, 7-2
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1532 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1555 | 1513 |
W, 8-7
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1551 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1546 |
L, 6-0
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1549 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -40 | +26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1575 |
W, 4-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1550 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1525 |
W, 2-1
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1479 | 1532 |
L, 6-1
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1543 |
W, 8-4
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | +15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1550 |
L, 8-6
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1525 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1550 |
L, 11-5
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | +25 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1482 | 1572 |
W, 7-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1526 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1536 |
W, 3-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1524 |
W, 4-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1510 | 1505 |
L, 7-4
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1504 |
L, 6-4
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -35 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1470 | 1514 |
L, 8-4
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -30 | +15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1479 | 1541 |
W, 6-5
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +20 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1516 |
L, 2-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1493 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1504 |
W, 6-2
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1499 |
L, 5-4
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -31 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1514 |
W, 8-7
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -27 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1473 | 1504 |
L, 4-1
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1535 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | +38 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1545 | 1573 |
W, 3-0
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1538 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1508 | 1541 |
L, 8-7
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1505 |
L, 11-4
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1541 | 1513 |
W, 2-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1502 |
L, 6-4
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1499 |
L, 2-1
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1517 |
L, 2-0
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1475 |
L, 4-3
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1472 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1551 | 1471 |
L, 7-2
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1542 |
L, 3-2
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1556 |
L, 10-8
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1523 |
W, 5-2
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1528 |
L, 3-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1526 |
L, 3-2
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1543 |
AL East standings
| Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Red SoxRed Sox93-69 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
 | YankeesYankees91-71 | 2.0 | ✓ | — | ||
 | RaysRays80-82 | 13.0 | — | — | ||
 | Blue JaysBlue Jays76-86 | 17.0 | — | — | ||
 | OriolesOrioles75-87 | 18.0 | — | — |
This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »
For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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