Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Blue Jays have a 0% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1490, down 4 points from last week.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
YankeesYankees86-684.03%
Red SoxRed Sox90-6497%
RaysRays76-7914.5<1%
Blue JaysBlue Jays72-8318.5
OriolesOrioles74-8217.0

Upcoming games

Stroman vs. Garcia

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351539

Anderson vs. Pomeranz

31%

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-35+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14531587

Happ vs. Sale

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+42
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081628

Estrada vs. Porcello

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031563

Biagini vs. Garcia

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14671563

Stroman vs. Sabathia

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111582

Anderson vs. Severino

29%

71%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-35+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14551607

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman54.2+21
J.A. Happ
J.A. Happ53.6+18
Marco Estrada
Marco Estrada52.4+13
Joe Biagini
Joe Biagini44.8-23
Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson42.2-35

Completed games

L, 5-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921557
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14921561

W, 8-1

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871561
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15211567

vs. Royals

L, 1-0

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311480

L, 15-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14891494

W, 5-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+230
Adjusted team rating15331470

L, 13-7

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771532

W, 7-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961531

W, 4-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061507

L, 3-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-29+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14591536

L, 2-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331514

W, 3-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21+29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14941528

W, 4-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15171486

vs. Tigers

W, 8-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271451

W, 5-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-31-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14791463

L, 5-4

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311445

L, 6-1

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14761551

L, 3-2

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14911561

W, 10-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15031554

L, 5-4

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-32-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14561509

W, 7-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041532

L, 1-0

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14621551

W, 11-8

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14871544

L, 7-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281531

L, 3-0

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-35+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14771591

L, 6-5

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15341549

vs. Twins

L, 7-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14981488

W, 10-9

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15201484

L, 6-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15341466

at Rays

L, 2-0

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-36+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14601527

W, 7-6

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15201510

L, 6-5

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating14891540

at Cubs

L, 6-5

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14981585

L, 4-3

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781575

L, 7-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15171579

vs. Rays

W, 5-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15151517

W, 3-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441506

L, 6-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311488

W, 2-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating14991485

W, 7-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351498

W, 7-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15051506

L, 4-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15381497

W, 4-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15221541

L, 11-5

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15021547

W, 4-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+230
Adjusted team rating15311540

L, 7-6

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921574
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141596

W, 4-3

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901576
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961597

L, 16-7

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931574
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-180
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating14741598

W, 5-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911453
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041461

W, 8-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121473

L, 7-6

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901453
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14901454

vs. Angels

W, 11-10

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091487

L, 6-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15011497

L, 7-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15301503

W, 8-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421496

W, 3-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15141472

W, 4-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15021492

W, 4-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating14931476

L, 8-1

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+47
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061615

L, 2-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141549

L, 13-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14941541

W, 8-6

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-38
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771531

L, 5-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091564

L, 5-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141536

W, 4-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15121566

L, 6-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991507

L, 11-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14871545

W, 7-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+7+32
Adjusted team rating15151540

vs. Astros

L, 19-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011586
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501576

W, 7-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971589
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381585

L, 12-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011585
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481573

W, 7-4

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981588
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15071609

W, 7-6

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021557

W, 4-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151571

L, 6-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+140
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15081557

L, 15-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15071540

L, 7-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+47
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15131586

L, 7-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15351504

L, 2-0

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15531478

W, 4-0

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381489

L, 3-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-1
Adjusted team rating15141486

W, 8-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901512

L, 3-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121534

L, 5-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating15241486

L, 11-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15241534

W, 7-5

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14911553

L, 6-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15001510

W, 7-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15171534

W, 7-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471472

L, 5-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15491474

L, 11-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15361498

vs. Rays

W, 7-6

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15191517

L, 8-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15571500

W, 4-0

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231580

W, 4-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15211563

L, 4-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15051545

W, 7-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14951491

L, 4-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351494

L, 5-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15261524

W, 3-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15461534

L, 7-0

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281523

W, 7-5

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15231545

L, 12-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15221528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+280
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15741526

vs. Reds

W, 5-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-41+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15041484

W, 6-4

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15591479

W, 17-2

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15431472

L, 3-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15221490

W, 3-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15671547

W, 7-6

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-40-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating14981494

W, 8-4

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191515

W, 4-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+25
Adjusted team rating14911517

W, 3-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301539

L, 7-5

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-38-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14721536

L, 5-3

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating15231543

W, 9-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121518

L, 8-4

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14951494

vs. Braves

L, 9-5

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611462

L, 10-6

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-37-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15031455

W, 3-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521516

W, 7-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121527
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381502

W, 4-0

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101529
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15141510

W, 7-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15551513

W, 8-7

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15151546

L, 6-0

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-40+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14921575

W, 4-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15281525

at Rays

W, 2-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14791532

L, 6-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351543

W, 8-4

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating14921550

L, 8-6

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111550

L, 11-5

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14821572

W, 7-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15241536

vs. Rays

W, 3-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371524

W, 4-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101505

L, 7-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+210
Adjusted team rating15261504

L, 6-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-35-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14701514

L, 8-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating14791541

W, 6-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15221516

L, 2-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14921504

W, 6-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021499

L, 5-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-31-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741514

W, 8-7

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-27-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+21
Adjusted team rating14731504

L, 4-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+38
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15451573

W, 3-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15081541

L, 8-7

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15331505

L, 11-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15411513

W, 2-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441502

L, 6-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15491499

L, 2-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15111517

L, 2-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371475

L, 4-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+230
Adjusted team rating15511471

at Rays

L, 7-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351542

L, 3-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15321556

L, 10-8

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031523

W, 5-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15121528

L, 3-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating15311526

L, 3-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15221498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15371543

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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