Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cubs have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1549, the same as last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs86-68>99%97%
BrewersBrewers82-734.529%<1%
CardinalsCardinals81-735.021%2%
RedsReds66-8920.5
PiratesPirates70-8516.5

Upcoming games

Quintana vs. Anderson

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15601557

Lester vs. Weaver

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15381569

Arrieta vs. Martinez

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15641569

Lackey vs. Wacha

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15421550

Hendricks vs. Lynn

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15711553

vs. Reds

Quintana vs. Stephenson

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491453
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15821463

Lester vs. Stephens

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491453
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15641452

Arrieta vs. Davis

71%

29%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491453
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15881435

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks56.3+22
Jake Arrieta
Jake Arrieta54.8+15
Jose Quintana
Jose Quintana54.0+11
John Lackey
John Lackey50.0-7
Jon Lester
Jon Lester49.5-9

Completed games

L, 4-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15731531

W, 5-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15451538

W, 5-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating15611544

at Rays

L, 8-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15481521

W, 2-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15331530

W, 4-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15831537

W, 4-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471527
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15901521

W, 8-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441530
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15641549

vs. Mets

W, 14-6

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441480

W, 17-5

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15601474

W, 8-3

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15691458

L, 3-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15811515

L, 15-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15561514

L, 2-0

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+220
Adjusted team rating15611508

W, 8-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15411514

W, 1-0

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15481526

L, 4-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15631498

L, 12-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15691507

vs. Braves

L, 5-1

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15671469

W, 14-12

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15781473

W, 2-0

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611467

W, 6-2

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15921467

W, 17-3

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15731481

W, 4-1

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15881488

W, 6-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15501491

L, 6-3

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451444
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341450

W, 17-2

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411448
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15601470

L, 7-1

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461444
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15541474

at Reds

L, 4-2

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15641476

W, 9-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451449
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15281469

W, 13-9

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431451
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371474

W, 6-5

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15851498

W, 4-3

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15751478

W, 7-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15791517

vs. Reds

L, 13-10

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15801466

W, 7-6

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-100
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15561447

L, 2-1

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441445
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15861478

W, 15-5

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411448
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+20-1
Adjusted team rating15691453

W, 7-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15511555

L, 6-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15561511

W, 8-3

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15291548

L, 3-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15591540

L, 6-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+110
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15541494

W, 5-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15521481

L, 9-4

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15821512

W, 7-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-55
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15601497

L, 4-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15891527

L, 10-8

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15881553

L, 3-0

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15851525

W, 16-4

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471527
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+250
Adjusted team rating15861499

W, 4-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351522

W, 2-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15631523

L, 2-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+21
Adjusted team rating15611519

W, 6-3

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441456
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15581475

W, 8-3

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating15511458

W, 7-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15551479

L, 3-1

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15881469

W, 5-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15841508

W, 3-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15761501

L, 11-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-3
Adjusted team rating15781528

W, 8-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221513

W, 5-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15321506

W, 4-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15441514

W, 8-0

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15501500

W, 10-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15441497

W, 9-8

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+6+30
Adjusted team rating15211519

L, 14-3

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15831483

L, 4-2

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15741502

W, 6-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-31+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15301495

L, 11-2

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15521493

vs. Rays

W, 7-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15531497

L, 6-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15911528

at Reds

W, 6-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15431499

L, 5-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-31+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101494

L, 5-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15291503

W, 5-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431555
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15661553

L, 8-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15401588

L, 6-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+51
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15551625

W, 5-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-37-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15061572

L, 4-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311518

W, 5-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15681501

L, 2-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-60
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15421517

W, 11-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15481510

vs. Padres

L, 3-2

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461433
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-37+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331434

W, 4-0

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451435
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15491444

W, 3-2

70%

30%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441435
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15901439

W, 7-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341539

L, 4-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15511538

W, 9-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-36-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating15031511

at Mets

L, 9-4

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15211519

W, 14-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15581536

L, 6-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15361533

W, 7-5

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391530
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15731533

L, 9-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-37-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311517

L, 5-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481513

L, 4-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15941520

L, 6-5

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721477

W, 10-2

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15801482

W, 3-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-42+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15281512

W, 7-6

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15931489

W, 5-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15911513

W, 3-2

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15611508

L, 2-1

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451439
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+80
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15531463

L, 6-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481436
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-39+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091473

L, 5-2

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511432
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+20
Adjusted team rating15781447

L, 9-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541564
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29+55
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15831643

L, 5-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561561
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15521573

L, 4-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15591587

vs. Giants

W, 5-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-45+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15361504

W, 5-4

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16051490

W, 4-1

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16011517

L, 6-4

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15821477

W, 13-6

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15831509

L, 6-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-44-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-4
Adjusted team rating15371487

vs. Reds

W, 9-5

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16021479

W, 7-5

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16051489

W, 9-5

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15811475

L, 5-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15601522

L, 5-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15831555

W, 3-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-50+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating15051546

L, 3-0

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15831502

W, 8-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15551515

L, 10-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15601495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15721522

L, 5-4

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15611531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16091515

L, 11-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15651528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-51-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381513

L, 3-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15661526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating16141536

W, 5-4

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15661470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15891463

W, 5-4

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15651471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16011486

W, 8-3

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15631472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16131491

L, 10-2

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15681467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-45-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-4
Adjusted team rating15441459

L, 6-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15711531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15911551

W, 7-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15691533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15681533

L, 5-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15711532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15861550

L, 6-5

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15731490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29-27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16021487

W, 1-0

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15721491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15881519

W, 14-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15671496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-48+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15171522

at Reds

L, 7-5

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15691475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15691493

W, 12-8

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15681477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15841468

W, 6-5

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15671478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+33+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16001505

W, 7-4

70%

30%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15661485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16081462

W, 9-7

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15641486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-49-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391475

L, 6-3

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15671483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15911487

L, 6-1

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15711496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16231522

L, 8-7

69%

31%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15741494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16121469

L, 4-2

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15761491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating16191489

W, 4-0

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15741558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-53-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15451542

L, 2-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15761555
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating16011539

W, 3-2

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15751556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-3
Adjusted team rating16251539

W, 7-4

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15731473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15871500

W, 11-6

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15721475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15951478

L, 2-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15731473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-56-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15151477

W, 6-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15721505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating15741533

W, 2-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15711506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating15861528

L, 4-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15721504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15991552

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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