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The Mets are done for the season.
Team rating
Starting pitchers
| Pitcher score | Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to team rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Noah Syndergaard | 56.5 | +50 |
 | Jacob deGrom | 54.0 | +38 |
 | Seth Lugo | 47.9 | +10 |
 | Rafael Montero | 44.4 | -7 |
 | Robert Gsellman | 43.7 | -10 |
 | Matt Harvey | 42.7 | -15 |
 | Chris Flexen | 40.1 | -27 |
Completed games
L, 11-0
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1466 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +51 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1476 |
W, 7-4
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1463 | 1468 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1487 |
L, 6-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1466 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1455 | 1491 |
W, 7-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1462 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1473 | 1475 |
W, 4-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1461 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1478 | 1478 |
W, 3-2
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1460 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1490 | 1474 |
L, 9-2
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1463 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1461 | 1466 |
L, 3-2
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1464 | 1557 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +39 | +35 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1592 |
L, 4-3
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1465 | 1556 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +55 | +33 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1589 |
W, 7-6
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1464 | 1557 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | -59 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1477 | 1495 |
L, 9-2
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1467 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1465 | 1515 |
L, 5-4
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1468 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1471 | 1502 |
L, 13-1
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1473 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1465 | 1502 |
W, 5-1
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1469 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1452 | 1515 |
W, 7-3
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1467 | 1479 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +36 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1507 |
L, 3-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1468 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1463 | 1499 |
L, 14-6
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1471 | 1541 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1480 | 1544 |
L, 17-5
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1475 | 1538 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1560 |
L, 8-3
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1476 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1458 | 1569 |
L, 10-5
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1480 | 1453 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +32 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1536 | 1460 |
W, 6-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1478 | 1456 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1497 | 1457 |
W, 5-1
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1476 | 1457 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | -34 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1506 | 1423 |
W, 7-2
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1473 | 1460 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1497 | 1469 |
W, 6-3
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1471 | 1452 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1479 | 1439 |
L, 9-1
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1477 | 1446 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +43 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1444 |
W, 11-7
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1474 | 1449 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1447 |
L, 8-6
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1475 | 1557 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1454 | 1567 |
L, 4-1
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1477 | 1556 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1480 | 1580 |
L, 12-8
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1478 | 1554 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1478 | 1582 |
L, 7-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1482 | 1450 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +42 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1478 |
W, 2-0
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1480 | 1452 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1467 | 1476 |
L, 14-4
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1484 | 1448 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1470 | 1483 |
L, 5-4
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1485 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1485 | 1562 |
W, 6-5
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1484 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | -47 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1464 | 1537 |
L, 9-4
32%
68%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1485 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1468 | 1596 |
W, 4-2
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1483 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +38 | -38 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1543 |
L, 3-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1484 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1522 |
W, 4-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1482 | 1516 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1521 |
L, 7-4
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1485 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1495 |
L, 3-2
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1486 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1490 | 1502 |
L, 6-4
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1488 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +41 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1553 | 1501 |
W, 8-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1484 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1507 |
L, 3-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1486 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1488 |
L, 7-5
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1488 | 1537 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1550 |
L, 5-3
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1535 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1515 |
L, 5-4
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1534 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +43 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1563 |
L, 4-2
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1492 | 1533 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1470 | 1540 |
W, 6-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1452 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1476 | 1454 |
L, 3-1
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1492 | 1450 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | +29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1503 |
W, 7-6
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1490 | 1451 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1462 |
W, 10-0
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1487 | 1455 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +40 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1476 |
L, 5-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1489 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1484 |
W, 5-4
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1488 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1501 | 1495 |
L, 8-0
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1491 | 1604 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1577 |
L, 7-4
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1603 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1518 | 1613 |
L, 6-0
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1495 | 1600 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +41 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +20 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1556 | 1609 |
L, 5-4
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1477 | 1551 |
W, 10-5
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1484 | 1536 |
L, 5-4
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1500 | 1520 |
L, 9-1
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +38 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1501 | 1576 |
L, 3-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +39 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1518 |
W, 7-5
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1475 | 1548 |
L, 7-5
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1448 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1497 | 1473 |
L, 6-3
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1445 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1490 |
W, 6-5
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1447 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1483 |
W, 5-3
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1448 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +34 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1456 |
L, 3-2
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1457 |
W, 6-5
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1507 |
W, 7-5
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1481 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1477 |
W, 3-2
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1495 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1515 |
W, 7-3
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +33 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1550 | 1507 |
L, 5-0
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1497 |
L, 6-3
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1516 | 1495 |
L, 13-4
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1548 | 1506 |
W, 9-3
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1510 |
W, 14-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +30 | +5 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1553 | 1528 |
L, 6-0
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +28 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1527 |
L, 4-1
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1514 |
W, 6-5
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +30 | +31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1557 |
L, 11-4
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1550 |
L, 3-2
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1551 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +23 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1584 |
L, 7-1
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1434 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1508 | 1424 |
W, 7-6
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1435 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1440 |
W, 2-1
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1436 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1554 | 1428 |
W, 6-3
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1493 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1507 | 1519 |
W, 8-0
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1507 |
L, 6-3
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -28 | +29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1472 | 1550 |
W, 8-2
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1472 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -27 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1471 | 1487 |
W, 5-2
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +25 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1514 |
W, 11-4
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1501 | 1492 |
L, 6-3
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1580 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +23 | -30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1574 |
L, 8-2
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1578 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1490 | 1602 |
L, 12-0
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1575 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1479 | 1595 |
L, 10-6
30%
70%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1574 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | +47 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1494 | 1641 |
W, 5-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | -28 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1524 |
L, 7-4
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1550 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1567 |
L, 7-2
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1547 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | +44 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1591 |
L, 8-3
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1545 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1535 |
W, 9-4
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1542 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1521 |
L, 14-3
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1538 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1536 | 1558 |
W, 6-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1541 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1536 |
W, 2-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1464 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1498 |
W, 8-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1467 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1516 | 1485 |
W, 6-1
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1496 |
L, 3-2
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1488 | 1499 |
W, 4-3
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +36 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1501 | 1567 |
L, 10-8
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | -25 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1516 | 1506 |
L, 11-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1491 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1486 |
W, 4-2
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1492 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | -30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1462 |
L, 12-7
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1500 |
L, 2-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1500 |
L, 7-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1493 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +26 | +36 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1559 | 1529 |
W, 5-4
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1491 |
W, 4-2
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -30 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1481 |
W, 7-2
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1488 |
L, 5-4
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1493 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1507 | 1534 |
W, 8-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +23 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1510 |
L, 4-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1430 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1439 |
L, 6-5
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1428 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -31 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1426 |
W, 9-3
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1431 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1518 | 1443 |
L, 12-5
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1506 | 1491 |
W, 7-5
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1529 | 1486 |
W, 3-0
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1542 | 1500 |
L, 5-4
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1493 | 1504 |
L, 5-4
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | +28 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1482 | 1553 |
L, 7-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1504 |
L, 11-9
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1493 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1508 |
L, 11-4
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1490 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -29 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1484 | 1513 |
L, 7-4
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1506 | 1498 |
L, 6-5
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1488 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -25 | -34 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1516 | 1454 |
W, 6-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1490 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1491 |
W, 4-3
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1491 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1553 | 1477 |
L, 7-0
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1491 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1487 |
W, 11-3
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -29 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1497 |
W, 8-7
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -35 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1500 | 1484 |
W, 16-5
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1500 |
L, 9-7
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1497 |
W, 7-5
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -28 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1477 | 1519 |
L, 23-5
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1553 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +29 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1543 | 1558 |
W, 5-3
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1555 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1597 |
W, 7-5
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | +35 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1613 |
L, 7-5
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1468 |
L, 8-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +29 | +4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1490 |
L, 6-3
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1549 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +35 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1584 |
L, 3-1
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1547 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1555 | 1533 |
L, 4-3
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1545 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1543 |
L, 6-4
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1460 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1574 | 1458 |
W, 5-4
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1461 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -25 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1459 |
L, 6-2
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1525 | 1457 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1530 | 1436 |
L, 4-2
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1527 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1541 |
L, 5-4
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1528 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1539 | 1541 |
L, 3-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1530 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +28 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1558 | 1520 |
W, 9-8
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1528 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1536 |
W, 5-4
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1527 | 1458 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1507 | 1483 |
W, 14-4
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1462 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1516 | 1487 |
W, 4-3
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1464 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1504 |
W, 5-2
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +25 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1569 | 1499 |
L, 8-1
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1524 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1511 |
L, 7-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1527 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1503 |
W, 6-2
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1526 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1541 | 1462 |
L, 3-1
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1528 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | +2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1478 |
W, 6-0
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1526 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +23 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1573 | 1499 |
NL East standings
| Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | NationalsNationals97-65 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
 | MarlinsMarlins77-85 | 20.0 | — | — | ||
 | BravesBraves72-90 | 25.0 | — | — | ||
 | MetsMets70-92 | 27.0 | — | — | ||
 | PhilliesPhillies66-96 | 31.0 | — | — |
This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »
For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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