Updated Nov. 2, 2017 at 12:02 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Orioles are done for the season.twitter bird

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman52.3+29
Gabriel Ynoa
Gabriel Ynoa48.0+9
Miguel Castro
Miguel Castro46.4+1
Jeremy Hellickson
Jeremy Hellickson46.0-1
Ubaldo Jimenez
Ubaldo Jimenez43.9-11
Wade Miley
Wade Miley43.8-11
Chris Tillman
Chris Tillman41.6-21

Completed games

at Rays

L, 6-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031528

L, 4-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14841529

L, 7-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+21
Adjusted team rating14711516

L, 5-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991507

L, 10-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating15171512

vs. Rays

W, 9-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14861509

L, 9-6

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15061490

L, 8-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15061509

W, 3-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15191482

L, 9-0

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+38
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15071594

L, 1-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921555
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371559

L, 10-8

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+31-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15471532

W, 6-4

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811590

L, 9-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941557
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941572

L, 8-2

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961554
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021602

L, 13-5

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14961581

W, 2-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141533

L, 3-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15281494

L, 4-3

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14861517

L, 3-2

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011591
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15011598

L, 4-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021590
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081585

L, 5-0

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041588
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15031594

L, 9-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15561552

W, 7-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331548

L, 7-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15651536

W, 5-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091456

L, 7-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321504

W, 1-0

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15511462

L, 11-8

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15441487

W, 8-7

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251512

W, 4-0

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15571518

W, 7-6

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15111489

W, 2-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031544

W, 7-0

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151575

W, 16-3

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+21
Adjusted team rating15031569

W, 8-7

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431461

L, 6-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15181467

W, 7-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15161460

vs. Angels

L, 5-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15051535

L, 5-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421512

W, 9-7

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22+1
Adjusted team rating15311517

L, 7-6

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961518

L, 3-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14921517

W, 11-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15081518

L, 9-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151497

W, 12-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161506

L, 5-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14931507

W, 7-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14801493

L, 5-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161517

L, 3-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121535

W, 6-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+190
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15101532

vs. Tigers

W, 12-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15131488

W, 5-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15011490

L, 5-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321522

L, 7-5

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15081478

vs. Royals

W, 6-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271516

W, 7-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271518

W, 2-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15021531

W, 10-6

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14691524

W, 4-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941526

L, 8-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating14811527

at Rays

L, 5-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781542

L, 5-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741535

W, 5-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14901519

vs. Astros

W, 9-7

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811591
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281606

L, 8-4

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831589
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15061595

L, 8-7

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831588
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15021586

W, 9-7

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14951537

W, 10-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15071505

W, 12-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15181524

W, 3-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating14911506

vs. Cubs

L, 8-0

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15001550

L, 10-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14971544

L, 9-8

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+30+6
Adjusted team rating15191521

W, 11-5

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741493

W, 5-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14651510

L, 9-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14881500

L, 6-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14931505

L, 4-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14841508

L, 6-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811527

L, 8-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14791501

vs. Rays

W, 7-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101519

L, 10-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311504

L, 6-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating14971511

W, 2-0

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781553

L, 4-0

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14891538

W, 3-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating14861514

at Rays

W, 8-5

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14751535

W, 8-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021547

L, 15-5

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+26
Adjusted team rating14801564

L, 6-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091537

L, 5-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15081570

W, 6-5

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15031530

L, 12-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26+33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15371578

W, 8-5

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15081508

W, 15-7

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101489

L, 11-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15061527

L, 5-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14851503

W, 10-6

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131509

L, 6-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961495

L, 10-7

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14941490

L, 14-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971543

L, 16-3

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15001566

L, 8-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15221559

L, 6-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+20
Adjusted team rating15091546

W, 9-6

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321485

W, 6-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+260
Adjusted team rating15261517

L, 7-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291578

L, 5-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501545

W, 3-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281537

W, 7-5

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15291544

W, 10-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15241537

L, 8-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011529
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351524

W, 3-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001530
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15411520

L, 8-4

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021566
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111611

L, 5-2

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031564
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061616

L, 2-0

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041563
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15021561

vs. Twins

L, 4-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15411476

L, 2-0

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15491528

L, 14-7

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15281459

L, 3-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391530

W, 7-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-38
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15361472

W, 5-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15431523

L, 6-5

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341497

L, 5-4

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081561

W, 13-11

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating15141509

L, 9-8

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-37
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161454

L, 4-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151466
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231487

L, 3-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+21
Adjusted team rating15331493

L, 7-6

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating15191597

W, 5-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15301593

W, 6-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141560
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15361550

W, 4-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441511

W, 6-5

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15551456

W, 4-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15371499

W, 8-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14871529

L, 4-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061550

L, 5-2

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131599

W, 5-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15231560

W, 7-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131532

L, 12-4

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041556

L, 14-11

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+22
Adjusted team rating15101550

vs. Rays

W, 5-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481510

L, 2-0

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391491

W, 6-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15311526

L, 6-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391527

W, 4-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15161517

W, 2-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15411529

at Reds

W, 2-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031505

W, 2-0

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991511

L, 9-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating15241498

W, 11-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131541

L, 2-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021544

W, 6-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991549

W, 2-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15171511

W, 12-5

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971551

L, 8-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+21
Adjusted team rating15091546

L, 7-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15211515

W, 5-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15461526

W, 6-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15301479

W, 3-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15261531

W, 3-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15431537

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
Red SoxRed Sox93-69
YankeesYankees91-712.0
RaysRays80-8213.0
Blue JaysBlue Jays76-8617.0
OriolesOrioles75-8718.0

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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