Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Orioles have a 0% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1484, down 8 points from last week.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
YankeesYankees86-684.03%
Red SoxRed Sox90-6497%
RaysRays76-7914.5<1%
Blue JaysBlue Jays72-8318.5
OriolesOrioles74-8217.0

Upcoming games

vs. Rays

Bundy vs. Archer

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351509

Gausman vs. Kuhl

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating15121503

Miley vs. Williams

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14731507

at Rays

Ynoa vs. Odorizzi

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+21
Adjusted team rating14981517

Hellickson vs. Archer

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14801533

Jimenez vs. Snell

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14711532

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman52.7+28
Dylan Bundy
Dylan Bundy52.4+27
Gabriel Ynoa
Gabriel Ynoa49.8+15
Jeremy Hellickson
Jeremy Hellickson46.0-3
Wade Miley
Wade Miley44.4-11
Ubaldo Jimenez
Ubaldo Jimenez43.9-13

Completed games

vs. Rays

L, 9-6

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15061490

L, 8-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15061509

W, 3-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15191482

L, 9-0

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+38
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15071594

L, 1-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921555
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371559

L, 10-8

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+31-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15471532

W, 6-4

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811590

L, 9-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941557
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941572

L, 8-2

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961554
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021602

L, 13-5

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14961581

W, 2-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141533

L, 3-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15281494

L, 4-3

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14861517

L, 3-2

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011591
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15011598

L, 4-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021590
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081585

L, 5-0

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041588
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15031594

L, 9-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15561552

W, 7-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331548

L, 7-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15651536

W, 5-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091456

L, 7-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321504

W, 1-0

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15511462

L, 11-8

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15441487

W, 8-7

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251512

W, 4-0

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15571518

W, 7-6

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15111489

W, 2-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031544

W, 7-0

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151575

W, 16-3

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+21
Adjusted team rating15031569

W, 8-7

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431461

L, 6-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15181467

W, 7-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15161460

vs. Angels

L, 5-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15051535

L, 5-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421512

W, 9-7

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22+1
Adjusted team rating15311517

L, 7-6

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961518

L, 3-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14921517

W, 11-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15081518

L, 9-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151497

W, 12-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161506

L, 5-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14931507

W, 7-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14801493

L, 5-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161517

L, 3-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121535

W, 6-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+190
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15101532

vs. Tigers

W, 12-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15131488

W, 5-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15011490

L, 5-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321522

L, 7-5

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15081478

vs. Royals

W, 6-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271516

W, 7-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271518

W, 2-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15021531

W, 10-6

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14691524

W, 4-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941526

L, 8-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating14811527

at Rays

L, 5-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781542

L, 5-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741535

W, 5-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14901519

vs. Astros

W, 9-7

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811591
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281606

L, 8-4

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831589
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15061595

L, 8-7

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831588
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15021586

W, 9-7

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14951537

W, 10-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15071505

W, 12-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15181524

W, 3-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating14911506

vs. Cubs

L, 8-0

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15001550

L, 10-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14971544

L, 9-8

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+30+6
Adjusted team rating15191521

W, 11-5

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741493

W, 5-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14651510

L, 9-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14881500

L, 6-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14931505

L, 4-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14841508

L, 6-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811527

L, 8-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14791501

vs. Rays

W, 7-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101519

L, 10-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311504

L, 6-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating14971511

W, 2-0

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781553

L, 4-0

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14891538

W, 3-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating14861514

at Rays

W, 8-5

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14751535

W, 8-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021547

L, 15-5

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+26
Adjusted team rating14801564

L, 6-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091537

L, 5-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15081570

W, 6-5

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15031530

L, 12-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26+33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15371578

W, 8-5

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15081508

W, 15-7

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101489

L, 11-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15061527

L, 5-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14851503

W, 10-6

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131509

L, 6-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961495

L, 10-7

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14941490

L, 14-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971543

L, 16-3

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15001566

L, 8-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15221559

L, 6-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+20
Adjusted team rating15091546

W, 9-6

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321485

W, 6-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+260
Adjusted team rating15261517

L, 7-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291578

L, 5-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501545

W, 3-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281537

W, 7-5

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15291544

W, 10-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15241537

L, 8-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011529
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351524

W, 3-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001530
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15411520

L, 8-4

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021566
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111611

L, 5-2

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031564
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061616

L, 2-0

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041563
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15021561

vs. Twins

L, 4-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15411476

L, 2-0

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15491528

L, 14-7

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15281459

L, 3-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391530

W, 7-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-38
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15361472

W, 5-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15431523

L, 6-5

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341497

L, 5-4

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081561

W, 13-11

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating15141509

L, 9-8

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-37
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161454

L, 4-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151466
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231487

L, 3-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+21
Adjusted team rating15331493

L, 7-6

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating15191597

W, 5-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15301593

W, 6-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141560
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15361550

W, 4-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441511

W, 6-5

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15551456

W, 4-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15371499

W, 8-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14871529

L, 4-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061550

L, 5-2

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131599

W, 5-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15231560

W, 7-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131532

L, 12-4

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041556

L, 14-11

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+22
Adjusted team rating15101550

vs. Rays

W, 5-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481510

L, 2-0

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391491

W, 6-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15311526

L, 6-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391527

W, 4-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15161517

W, 2-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15411529

at Reds

W, 2-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031505

W, 2-0

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991511

L, 9-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating15241498

W, 11-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131541

L, 2-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021544

W, 6-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991549

W, 2-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15171511

W, 12-5

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971551

L, 8-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+21
Adjusted team rating15091546

L, 7-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15211515

W, 5-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15461526

W, 6-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15301479

W, 3-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15261531

W, 3-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15431537

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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