Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
The Phillies are done for the season.
Team rating
Starting pitchers
| Pitcher score | Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to team rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Aaron Nola | 55.1 | +32 |
 | Ben Lively | 48.4 | 0 |
 | Henderson Alvarez | 46.6 | -9 |
 | Nick Pivetta | 46.4 | -9 |
 | Jake Thompson | 46.0 | -11 |
 | Mark Leiter Jr. | 44.9 | -16 |
Completed games
W, 11-0
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1465 | 1466 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +51 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1476 | 1517 |
L, 7-4
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1468 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1474 |
W, 6-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1465 | 1466 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | +1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1455 |
W, 7-5
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1463 | 1557 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1476 | 1548 |
W, 4-1
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1460 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1470 | 1571 |
L, 3-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1462 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +31 | -30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1527 |
W, 2-0
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1460 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1443 | 1499 |
L, 4-2
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1461 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1455 | 1513 |
L, 7-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1464 | 1472 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1468 | 1497 |
L, 5-4
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1465 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1476 | 1547 |
W, 7-5
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1462 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1470 | 1564 |
W, 6-2
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1459 | 1563 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +30 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1513 | 1569 |
W, 4-3
30%
70%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1457 | 1565 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +45 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1462 | 1608 |
L, 6-3
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1459 | 1479 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1480 | 1486 |
W, 5-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1457 | 1481 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1490 | 1488 |
L, 4-0
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1460 | 1479 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1472 | 1470 |
W, 10-0
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1455 | 1482 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1460 | 1497 |
W, 8-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1451 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1497 |
W, 9-8
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1450 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1458 | 1500 |
L, 3-2
29%
71%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1450 | 1566 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1455 | 1613 |
W, 5-4
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1448 | 1568 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -48 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1436 | 1544 |
L, 11-10
24%
76%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1449 | 1568 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +42 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1436 | 1634 |
L, 4-3
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1450 | 1567 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1475 | 1572 |
L, 6-3
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1452 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1439 | 1479 |
W, 9-1
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1446 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +43 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1444 | 1544 |
L, 11-7
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1449 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1447 | 1492 |
W, 3-1
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1446 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1423 | 1530 |
L, 10-9
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1447 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +31 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1478 | 1541 |
W, 2-1
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1445 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1428 | 1529 |
W, 3-2
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1443 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1432 | 1525 |
L, 5-2
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1445 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1470 | 1476 |
L, 9-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1449 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | +2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1482 | 1476 |
W, 6-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1447 | 1468 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +29 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1500 | 1472 |
W, 6-3
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1444 | 1545 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1450 | 1534 |
L, 17-2
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1448 | 1541 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1470 | 1560 |
W, 7-1
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1444 | 1546 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1554 |
L, 9-8
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1445 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1450 | 1507 |
W, 8-0
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1440 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1452 | 1493 |
L, 7-4
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1442 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1454 | 1513 |
L, 12-8
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1444 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +32 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | +1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1520 |
W, 5-2
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1441 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +41 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1436 | 1540 |
W, 12-9
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1439 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1447 | 1497 |
L, 10-2
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1442 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1423 | 1487 |
L, 5-4
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1443 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1476 | 1503 |
L, 3-0
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1445 | 1449 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1429 | 1459 |
L, 8-4
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1447 | 1447 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1442 | 1493 |
L, 7-4
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1449 | 1445 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1450 | 1465 |
L, 6-2
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1452 | 1490 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1454 | 1476 |
W, 3-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1450 | 1492 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +29 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1499 |
L, 7-6
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1451 | 1490 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1462 | 1491 |
L, 10-0
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1455 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +40 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1476 | 1526 |
W, 3-2
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1453 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1457 | 1498 |
W, 5-2
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1451 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1426 | 1504 |
W, 3-2
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1449 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +25 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1527 |
L, 8-5
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1450 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1443 | 1544 |
L, 4-3
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1451 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1447 | 1533 |
L, 5-4
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1452 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1456 | 1543 |
L, 7-0
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1455 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1441 | 1527 |
L, 7-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1457 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1477 | 1520 |
W, 7-6
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1456 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1467 | 1487 |
W, 2-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1455 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1484 |
W, 4-3
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1453 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1482 | 1477 |
W, 10-3
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1449 | 1482 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1457 | 1488 |
W, 9-0
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1443 | 1593 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1489 | 1596 |
L, 5-0
33%
67%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1445 | 1591 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1455 | 1577 |
L, 13-4
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1447 | 1589 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1472 | 1587 |
W, 6-3
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1445 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1472 | 1505 |
L, 9-8
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1446 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1472 | 1495 |
W, 6-1
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1443 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1484 | 1491 |
W, 10-3
33%
67%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1438 | 1491 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | +31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1423 | 1546 |
W, 5-2
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1435 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1435 | 1520 |
L, 6-5
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1436 | 1493 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1440 | 1498 |
W, 5-2
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1433 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1434 | 1525 |
L, 3-2
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1434 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1452 | 1544 |
L, 9-6
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1436 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +6 | +30 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1437 | 1535 |
W, 7-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1432 | 1446 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1460 | 1456 |
L, 2-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1434 | 1445 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1472 | 1459 |
L, 4-3
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1435 | 1443 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1454 | 1434 |
L, 6-3
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1437 | 1488 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1462 | 1481 |
L, 5-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1439 | 1486 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1457 | 1487 |
L, 3-0
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1441 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1460 | 1509 |
W, 4-0
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1438 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1471 | 1503 |
W, 7-1
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1434 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1424 | 1508 |
L, 7-6
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1435 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1440 | 1521 |
L, 2-1
33%
67%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1436 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1428 | 1554 |
W, 5-4
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1434 | 1517 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1437 | 1545 |
W, 8-2
31%
69%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1429 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1434 | 1568 |
L, 6-1
30%
70%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1430 | 1533 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1431 | 1578 |
L, 2-1
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1431 | 1533 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1430 | 1547 |
L, 9-2
31%
69%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1433 | 1531 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1430 | 1571 |
W, 6-1
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1429 | 1535 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -39 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1419 | 1517 |
W, 5-1
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1425 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +40 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1454 | 1538 |
L, 7-6
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1427 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1451 | 1477 |
L, 8-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1430 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | +1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1455 | 1500 |
L, 5-4
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1431 | 1526 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1456 | 1549 |
L, 5-1
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1433 | 1524 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1464 | 1514 |
L, 5-4
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1434 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -40 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1466 | 1483 |
W, 1-0
31%
69%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1432 | 1539 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +44 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1446 | 1583 |
L, 7-3
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1434 | 1537 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1461 | 1516 |
L, 4-3
32%
68%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1435 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1436 | 1568 |
L, 6-5
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1436 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1441 | 1556 |
L, 6-5
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1437 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1445 | 1510 |
L, 7-0
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1439 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1430 | 1547 |
L, 3-2
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1440 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | -23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1444 | 1494 |
L, 3-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1441 | 1467 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1441 | 1484 |
L, 14-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1446 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1454 | 1499 |
W, 3-1
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1444 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1447 | 1502 |
W, 11-4
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1440 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1429 | 1477 |
W, 9-7
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1438 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1472 | 1485 |
W, 5-3
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1435 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1455 | 1514 |
L, 10-0
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1440 | 1493 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1478 | 1476 |
L, 10-2
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1443 | 1484 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1448 | 1532 |
L, 7-2
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1445 | 1481 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1450 | 1492 |
L, 4-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1447 | 1479 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1454 | 1494 |
L, 8-4
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1449 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1458 | 1492 |
W, 4-3
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1448 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1485 | 1470 |
L, 5-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1450 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1478 | 1478 |
W, 2-1
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1449 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1475 | 1524 |
L, 7-2
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1451 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1489 | 1510 |
L, 8-2
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1454 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1468 | 1508 |
L, 8-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1458 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1479 |
L, 1-0
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1459 | 1492 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1457 | 1502 |
L, 6-3
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1461 | 1490 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1463 | 1532 |
W, 7-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1458 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1466 | 1498 |
L, 8-4
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1459 | 1517 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1440 | 1530 |
L, 9-3
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1462 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1459 | 1515 |
L, 5-1
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1463 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1473 | 1571 |
L, 6-5
30%
70%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1464 | 1556 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +37 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1466 | 1617 |
W, 4-3
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1462 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1568 |
L, 6-4
31%
69%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1463 | 1557 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +3 | +29 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1447 | 1587 |
L, 11-6
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1466 | 1529 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1522 |
L, 10-9
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1467 | 1528 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1525 |
W, 6-5
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1465 | 1562 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1501 | 1560 |
L, 6-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1468 | 1559 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -35 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1524 |
L, 4-2
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1469 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1473 | 1574 |
L, 5-4
33%
67%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1470 | 1566 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1463 | 1589 |
L, 5-4
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1471 | 1565 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1486 | 1601 |
L, 8-3
33%
67%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1472 | 1563 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | +26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1613 |
W, 10-2
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1467 | 1568 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | -45 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1459 | 1544 |
L, 5-3
36%
64%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1468 | 1551 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | -26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1451 | 1549 |
L, 6-5
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1469 | 1550 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1458 | 1565 |
L, 5-3
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1471 | 1549 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1485 | 1550 |
W, 3-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1469 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1494 |
W, 7-4
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1467 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +29 | +1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1517 |
W, 5-2
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1465 | 1467 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1471 | 1465 |
W, 4-3
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1464 | 1468 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1505 | 1454 |
W, 4-3
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1462 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1474 |
W, 6-4
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1460 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1458 | 1574 |
L, 5-4
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1461 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | -25 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1459 | 1521 |
W, 6-2
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1457 | 1525 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1436 | 1530 |
L, 6-4
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1459 | 1537 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1477 | 1548 |
W, 4-2
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1456 | 1539 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1471 | 1564 |
L, 3-2
32%
68%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1457 | 1539 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1453 | 1583 |
L, 5-4
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1458 | 1527 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1483 | 1507 |
L, 14-4
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1462 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1516 |
L, 4-3
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1464 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1531 |
W, 4-3
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1462 | 1539 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1497 | 1556 |
W, 17-3
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1456 | 1545 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -57 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1488 |
L, 7-6
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1457 | 1544 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | +32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1482 | 1574 |
L, 7-4
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1459 | 1466 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1463 | 1481 |
L, 2-0
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1461 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1478 | 1498 |
W, 4-3
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1459 | 1466 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1468 | 1491 |
NL East standings
| Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | NationalsNationals97-65 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
 | MarlinsMarlins77-85 | 20.0 | — | — | ||
 | BravesBraves72-90 | 25.0 | — | — | ||
 | MetsMets70-92 | 27.0 | — | — | ||
 | PhilliesPhillies66-96 | 31.0 | — | — |
This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »
For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
Comments