Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Phillies have a 0% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1460, up 1 point from last week.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
NationalsNationals93-61
BravesBraves70-8322.5
MetsMets66-8827.0
MarlinsMarlins73-8120.0
PhilliesPhillies61-9432.5

Upcoming games

Pivetta vs. Gohara

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14431499

Nola vs. Cole

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601557
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-1
Adjusted team rating15131526

Thompson vs. Gonzalez

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601557
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14711568

Leiter Jr. vs. Roark

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601557
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14751549

vs. Mets

Lively vs. Harvey

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+1
Adjusted team rating14861455

Alvarez vs. deGrom

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14801503

Pivetta vs. Lugo

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14671470

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola54.9+32
Ben Lively
Ben Lively48.3+0
Henderson Alvarez
Henderson Alvarez47.4-4
Mark Leiter Jr.
Mark Leiter Jr.46.3-9
Jake Thompson
Jake Thompson45.4-13
Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta44.6-17

Completed games

L, 4-2

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14611475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14551513

L, 7-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14641472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14681497

L, 5-4

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14651558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14761547

W, 7-5

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621560
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14701564

W, 6-2

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591563
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+30+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15131569

W, 4-3

30%

70%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14571565
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+45
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating14621608

L, 6-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14801486

W, 5-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14571481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14901488

L, 4-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating14721470

W, 10-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14551482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14601497

W, 8-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14511485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15021497

W, 9-8

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14501487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating14581500

L, 3-2

29%

71%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14501566
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14551613

W, 5-4

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14481568
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14361544

L, 11-10

24%

76%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491568
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+42
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14361634

L, 4-3

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14501567
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14751572

at Mets

L, 6-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14521471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14391479

W, 9-1

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14461477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14441544

L, 11-7

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14471492

W, 3-1

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14461498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14231530

L, 10-9

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14471497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+31+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781541

W, 2-1

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14281529

W, 3-2

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14431501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14321525

vs. Braves

L, 5-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14701476

L, 9-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating14821476

W, 6-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14471468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15001472

vs. Cubs

W, 6-3

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14441545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14501534

L, 17-2

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14481541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14701560

W, 7-1

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14441546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating14741554

L, 9-8

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14501507

W, 8-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14401507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14521493

L, 7-4

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14421505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14541513

L, 12-8

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14441503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22+1
Adjusted team rating14981520

W, 5-2

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14411475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+41
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14361540

W, 12-9

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14391478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14471497

L, 10-2

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14421475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14231487

L, 5-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14431473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+20
Adjusted team rating14761503

L, 3-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451449
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14291459

L, 8-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14471447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14421493

L, 7-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491445
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+23
Adjusted team rating14501465

vs. Mets

L, 6-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14521490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14541476

W, 3-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14501492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15031499

L, 7-6

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14511490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14621491

L, 10-0

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14551487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+40
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-1
Adjusted team rating14761526

W, 3-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14531473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14571498

W, 5-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14511476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating14261504

W, 3-2

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741527

L, 8-5

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14501513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14431544

L, 4-3

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14511512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14471533

L, 5-4

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14521511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14561543

L, 7-0

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14551509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14411527

L, 7-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14571506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+22
Adjusted team rating14771520

vs. Braves

W, 7-6

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14561475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14671487

W, 2-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14551476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14741484

W, 4-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14531477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+50
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14821477

W, 10-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating14571488

vs. Astros

W, 9-0

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14431593
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14891596

L, 5-0

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451591
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14551577

L, 13-4

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14471589
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating14721587

W, 6-3

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14721505

L, 9-8

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14461500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14721495

W, 6-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14431503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-2
Adjusted team rating14841491

W, 10-3

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14381491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14231546

W, 5-2

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14351494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14351520

L, 6-5

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14361493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14401498

W, 5-2

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14331512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14341525

L, 3-2

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14341511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14521544

L, 9-6

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14361510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+6+30
Adjusted team rating14371535

vs. Padres

W, 7-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14321446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14601456

L, 2-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14341445
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14721459

L, 4-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14351443
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating14541434

L, 6-3

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14371488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14621481

L, 5-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14391486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14571487

L, 3-0

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14411485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14601509

W, 4-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14381487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-2
Adjusted team rating14711503

at Mets

W, 7-1

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14341508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14241508

L, 7-6

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14351507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14401521

L, 2-1

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14361506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14281554

W, 5-4

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14341517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14371545

W, 8-2

31%

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14291522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+26
Adjusted team rating14341568

L, 6-1

30%

70%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14301533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14311578

L, 2-1

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14311533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14301547

L, 9-2

31%

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14331531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14301571

W, 6-1

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14291535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+21
Adjusted team rating14191517

W, 5-1

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14251498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+40
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14541538

L, 7-6

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14271497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14511477

L, 8-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14301494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+1
Adjusted team rating14551500

L, 5-4

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14311526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14561549

L, 5-1

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14331524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14641514

L, 5-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14341523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-40
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14661483

W, 1-0

31%

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14321539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+44
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14461583

L, 7-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14341537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating14611516

L, 4-3

32%

68%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14351536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14361568

L, 6-5

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14361536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14411556

L, 6-5

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14371498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14451510

L, 7-0

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14391496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14301547

L, 3-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14401495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating14441494

L, 3-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14411467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14411484

L, 14-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14461463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14541499

W, 3-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14441465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14471502

W, 11-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14401469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14291477

vs. Giants

W, 9-7

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14381495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14721485

W, 5-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14351498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14551514

L, 10-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14401493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-2
Adjusted team rating14781476

L, 10-2

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14431484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14481532

L, 7-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14451481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14501492

L, 4-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14471479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14541494

vs. Reds

L, 8-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14581492

W, 4-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14481477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14851470

L, 5-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14501475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14781478

W, 2-1

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14491514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14751524

L, 7-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14511511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14891510

L, 8-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14541508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-100
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14681508

L, 8-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14581505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating14911479

L, 1-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14571502

L, 6-3

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14611490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14631532

W, 7-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14581494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14661498

L, 8-4

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14401530

L, 9-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14591515

L, 5-1

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14631513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating14731571

L, 6-5

30%

70%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14641556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+37
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14661617

W, 4-3

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741568

L, 6-4

31%

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14631557
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+3+29
Adjusted team rating14471587

L, 11-6

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14661529
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14871522

L, 10-9

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14671528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15091525

W, 6-5

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14651562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15011560

L, 6-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14911524

L, 4-2

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating14731574

at Cubs

L, 5-4

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701566
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14631589

L, 5-4

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711565
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861601

L, 8-3

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721563
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14911613

W, 10-2

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14671568
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-45
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+21
Adjusted team rating14591544

L, 5-3

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14511549

L, 6-5

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14581565

L, 5-3

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+22
Adjusted team rating14851550

W, 3-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15111494

W, 7-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14671508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+29+1
Adjusted team rating14911517

vs. Braves

W, 5-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14651467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14711465

W, 4-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14641468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15051454

W, 4-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-3
Adjusted team rating15021474

at Mets

W, 6-4

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14581574

L, 5-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14611522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14591521

W, 6-2

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14571525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+23
Adjusted team rating14361530

L, 6-4

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771548

W, 4-2

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14561539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14711564

L, 3-2

32%

68%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14571539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating14531583

vs. Mets

L, 5-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14581527
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14831507

L, 14-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14871516

L, 4-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14641522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15041531

W, 4-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14971556

W, 17-3

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14561545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-57
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14741488

L, 7-6

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14571544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating14821574

at Reds

L, 7-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591466
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14631481

L, 2-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14611465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating14781498

W, 4-3

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591466
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14681491

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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