Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
The Rangers are done for the season.
Team rating
Starting pitchers
| Pitcher score | Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to team rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Cole Hamels | 53.1 | +19 |
 | Andrew Cashner | 50.6 | +7 |
 | Miguel Gonzalez | 50.4 | +6 |
 | Martin Perez | 48.3 | -4 |
 | Nick Martinez | 43.0 | -29 |
Completed games
L, 5-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +20 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1494 |
W, 8-4
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1491 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1473 |
W, 5-3
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1492 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1483 |
L, 4-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1490 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1491 |
L, 12-2
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | +42 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1602 |
L, 14-3
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1556 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +25 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1555 | 1570 |
L, 11-2
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +20 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1555 |
L, 8-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1490 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1510 | 1501 |
L, 1-0
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1497 |
L, 4-1
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -30 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1484 | 1517 |
W, 4-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +20 | +37 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1569 |
W, 8-6
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1542 |
W, 3-1
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1537 |
W, 4-2
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1508 | 1569 |
L, 2-0
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1521 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1545 |
L, 7-6
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1520 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -29 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1479 | 1537 |
L, 10-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1555 | 1519 |
L, 8-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1508 |
L, 10-3
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1552 | 1482 |
W, 5-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1565 | 1505 |
L, 16-7
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1526 | 1546 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1541 | 1539 |
L, 3-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1527 | 1544 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1563 |
W, 11-5
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1524 | 1548 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1542 | 1558 |
L, 5-4
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1526 | 1466 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1547 | 1503 |
W, 12-8
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1468 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1497 |
W, 8-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1505 |
W, 7-6
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1536 | 1521 |
L, 7-4
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1521 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1514 |
W, 10-9
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1563 | 1526 |
L, 5-1
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -35 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1564 |
W, 8-1
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1557 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1580 |
W, 12-2
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1562 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1554 |
L, 8-3
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1485 |
L, 8-3
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1468 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +30 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1500 |
L, 3-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1466 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -30 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1489 | 1501 |
W, 3-0
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1521 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1538 |
W, 7-5
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1518 | 1541 |
L, 10-1
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1519 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1510 | 1531 |
W, 5-3
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1521 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +27 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1542 | 1547 |
L, 3-2
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1449 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1467 |
W, 17-7
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1452 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1430 |
L, 4-3
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1450 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1546 | 1430 |
W, 9-8
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1451 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1536 | 1450 |
W, 12-6
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1484 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +29 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1569 | 1467 |
W, 10-4
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | +37 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1524 |
W, 6-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1518 | 1515 |
L, 2-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1561 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1580 |
W, 8-3
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1564 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1563 |
W, 6-4
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1566 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +26 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1556 | 1564 |
W, 5-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1484 | 1495 |
L, 5-4
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1488 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1501 |
L, 6-5
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -27 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1480 | 1498 |
W, 4-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1484 |
L, 8-4
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1468 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1493 | 1463 |
W, 4-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1488 | 1500 |
W, 5-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1520 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1528 |
L, 8-7
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1505 | 1522 |
L, 6-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1516 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1515 |
L, 10-6
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1469 |
L, 4-0
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1481 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1494 |
W, 8-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1481 |
L, 22-10
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +36 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1576 | 1493 |
W, 10-4
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1554 | 1515 |
L, 4-0
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1486 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1486 |
W, 6-5
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1526 |
W, 4-3
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1552 |
W, 4-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +36 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1545 |
L, 9-7
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1481 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1495 |
L, 10-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1505 | 1507 |
L, 12-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1518 |
L, 3-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1524 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1506 | 1491 |
L, 4-3
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1525 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +33 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1558 | 1527 |
W, 1-0
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1524 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1543 | 1537 |
W, 5-3
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +7 | +30 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1516 | 1522 |
L, 3-0
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1525 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +33 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1582 | 1492 |
W, 5-2
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1494 |
W, 10-0
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1560 | 1509 |
W, 8-2
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1520 |
L, 11-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1548 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +42 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1587 | 1552 |
L, 7-5
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1546 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1529 |
L, 6-5
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1524 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1529 | 1530 |
W, 10-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1494 |
L, 8-7
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1513 | 1492 |
L, 5-1
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1524 | 1548 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +44 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1507 | 1616 |
L, 5-3
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1526 | 1546 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +42 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1568 | 1558 |
W, 2-1
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1524 | 1547 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1556 |
L, 15-9
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1527 | 1545 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1541 | 1592 |
W, 7-6
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1525 | 1533 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -28 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1497 | 1561 |
W, 8-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1538 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1508 | 1550 |
L, 2-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +37 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1556 | 1552 |
W, 11-4
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1524 |
L, 7-5
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1553 | 1491 |
W, 6-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1510 | 1500 |
L, 7-6
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1517 |
L, 7-3
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +39 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1586 | 1495 |
W, 10-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1502 |
W, 10-4
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1519 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1546 | 1546 |
L, 13-2
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1571 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1508 | 1572 |
W, 4-2
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1573 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -35 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1483 | 1576 |
W, 6-1
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1576 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +37 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1579 |
W, 5-1
33%
67%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1555 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +41 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1494 | 1620 |
W, 6-3
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1567 |
W, 5-2
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1561 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1489 | 1580 |
L, 4-3
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +36 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1501 |
W, 10-8
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -25 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1506 | 1516 |
L, 7-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1582 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1529 | 1562 |
L, 6-5
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1581 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1518 | 1600 |
L, 7-1
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1578 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +34 | +29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1606 |
L, 7-5
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1535 |
W, 9-5
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1514 |
L, 10-8
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1516 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1530 | 1518 |
W, 3-1
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1517 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1490 | 1522 |
L, 3-1
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1516 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1547 | 1567 |
L, 7-6
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | -40 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1494 | 1498 |
L, 6-2
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1534 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -33 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1482 | 1548 |
L, 9-4
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1532 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +50 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1606 |
L, 11-6
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1530 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1554 |
W, 5-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +36 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1554 | 1507 |
L, 9-3
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | +36 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1562 |
W, 5-3
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -40 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1475 | 1521 |
W, 8-4
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1459 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1530 | 1440 |
W, 9-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1462 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1459 |
W, 5-1
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +32 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1571 | 1473 |
W, 6-4
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1480 |
W, 6-5
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -41 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1493 | 1462 |
W, 5-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -25 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1507 | 1471 |
W, 5-2
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1440 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1429 |
W, 4-3
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1441 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +33 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1560 | 1443 |
W, 11-0
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1445 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1458 |
L, 5-1
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1443 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -38 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1463 | 1472 |
L, 4-3
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1526 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -28 | -38 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1478 | 1512 |
L, 8-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1496 | 1523 |
W, 3-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1525 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1538 |
W, 10-4
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1567 |
L, 10-1
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1555 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -31 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1563 |
L, 8-7
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1554 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -23 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1483 | 1562 |
L, 6-2
35%
65%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1553 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1474 | 1585 |
L, 5-2
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1493 |
W, 6-3
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +31 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1564 | 1487 |
L, 6-3
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -35 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1491 |
W, 14-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1487 |
L, 8-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -31 | +43 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1520 |
L, 3-2
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1462 |
W, 5-2
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +29 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1564 | 1459 |
W, 2-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -40 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1493 | 1487 |
W, 6-2
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1542 | 1467 |
W, 1-0
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +20 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1494 | 1488 |
L, 9-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1482 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1492 |
L, 4-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +33 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1545 | 1514 |
W, 7-0
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1511 |
L, 8-7
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1547 |
L, 5-0
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1521 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -33 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1479 | 1564 |
L, 2-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1519 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1544 |
W, 8-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +30 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1540 | 1537 |
W, 8-3
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1522 |
L, 6-5
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1527 |
W, 8-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1488 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1508 |
L, 6-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +30 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1563 | 1493 |
W, 10-5
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1461 |
L, 9-6
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1557 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1546 | 1551 |
L, 4-3
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1556 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1567 |
L, 8-5
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1554 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +32 | +36 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1587 |
AL West standings
| Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | AstrosAstros101-61 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
 | AngelsAngels80-82 | 21.0 | — | — | ||
 | RangersRangers78-84 | 23.0 | — | — | ||
 | MarinersMariners78-84 | 23.0 | — | — | ||
 | AthleticsAthletics75-87 | 26.0 | — | — |
This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »
For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
Comments