Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Royals have a <1% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1485, up 5 points from last week.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
IndiansIndians97-58
TwinsTwins81-7416.096%
RoyalsRoyals76-7820.5<1%
TigersTigers62-9335.0
White SoxWhite Sox62-9234.5

Upcoming games

Kennedy vs. Giolito

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781498

Junis vs. Sabathia

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14991580

vs. Tigers

Gaviglio vs. Sanchez

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-1
Adjusted team rating14961433

Vargas vs. Zimmermann

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15121427

Hammel vs. Norris

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15031441

Duffy vs. Walker

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15381527

Kennedy vs. Corbin

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15021521

Junis vs. Godley

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15261545

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Danny Duffy
Danny Duffy54.2+29
Jake Junis
Jake Junis51.8+18
Jason Vargas
Jason Vargas48.8+4
Jason Hammel
Jason Hammel46.9-6
Ian Kennedy
Ian Kennedy46.6-7
Sam Gaviglio
Sam Gaviglio46.0-10

Completed games

W, 8-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+30-34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121450

L, 7-6

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841459
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14821482

W, 1-0

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14801531

W, 15-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941489

L, 5-2

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+23
Adjusted team rating14701533

L, 3-2

28%

72%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801596
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28+51
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081671

L, 8-4

31%

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811595
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861626

W, 4-3

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791597
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781604

L, 3-2

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801596
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14921590

L, 5-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821454
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14861465

W, 4-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14941424

L, 11-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861450
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15201451

vs. Twins

W, 11-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15011486

W, 5-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15181513

L, 8-5

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15001530

L, 4-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-150
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating14901500

W, 13-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901481

L, 13-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861475

W, 7-6

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14931492

W, 5-4

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14731557

L, 17-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811520

W, 7-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14931510

vs. Rays

L, 5-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15151482

W, 6-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15121512

L, 12-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15081475

L, 12-0

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931563
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811584

L, 4-0

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951561
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021565

L, 4-0

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14981557

L, 3-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15191513

W, 6-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15191492

W, 3-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15421513

W, 7-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931565
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15231562

L, 5-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251545

L, 10-1

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15251605

W, 7-6

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191503

L, 10-8

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001466
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081483

W, 6-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating14821481

W, 14-6

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941456
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14981465

W, 5-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921457
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961458

L, 6-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+210
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15141479

L, 8-6

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021561

L, 8-5

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating14771537

L, 10-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351519

L, 11-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15361529

W, 9-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15001523

L, 8-7

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15541506

L, 5-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+41
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321556

W, 6-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15041500

L, 6-0

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161527

L, 7-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15181527

L, 2-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15311502

W, 5-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101561

L, 9-8

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14951558

W, 4-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating15141552

W, 16-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091508

W, 3-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15211548

W, 5-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14951539

W, 5-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971459
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15051449

W, 7-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291454

W, 7-6

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941462
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291443

vs. Tigers

W, 16-4

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351536

W, 4-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15071518

L, 9-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15051473

L, 10-2

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15361462

W, 4-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271558

L, 1-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371543

L, 5-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+30+7
Adjusted team rating15221516

L, 5-2

30%

70%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991593
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+45
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171662

L, 5-4

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001592
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101605

L, 4-1

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021590
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating14951594

W, 9-6

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221552

W, 7-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131541

W, 3-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+21
Adjusted team rating14961541

vs. Twins

W, 6-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15051475

L, 10-5

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15171473

W, 11-6

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15031486

W, 8-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+37
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15291513

L, 7-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14671547

W, 8-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14881512

L, 5-3

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating14731540

L, 8-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15121490

W, 3-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15341512

W, 5-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-29+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating14861524

W, 6-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15151535

L, 8-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15041584

W, 4-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15021501

W, 7-3

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15051527

L, 9-0

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-27-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14611527

W, 3-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14851517

W, 7-2

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14671531

W, 7-2

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14711532

W, 8-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating14941513

W, 8-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721429
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14471455

W, 12-6

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691433
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14711467

L, 6-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711430
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14581459

vs. Astros

L, 6-1

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731581
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14821598

W, 7-5

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701584
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15131616

W, 9-7

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681586
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14771562

L, 7-3

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701584
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating14961557

L, 8-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14911527

W, 12-5

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14721569

W, 4-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14661548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15041530

vs. Tigers

L, 6-5

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14671496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14981470

W, 1-0

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14661498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14741528

L, 10-7

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating14721490

L, 10-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14891549

W, 5-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811558

W, 6-4

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14661547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating14731562

L, 3-0

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14671528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14471544

W, 6-2

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14641532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14821543

L, 4-2

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14651530
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14761565

L, 8-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811491

W, 6-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14661480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating14491495

L, 4-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14671479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14651504

W, 5-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14641536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15001526

L, 11-7

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14661533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091548

L, 7-1

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating14771527

W, 9-8

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14671514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-37+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14541516

W, 4-3

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14661515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14871523

W, 3-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14641517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-1
Adjusted team rating14931533

at Rays

W, 6-0

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14601507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14751544

L, 12-1

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14631504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14491544

W, 7-6

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14611506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-33-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14281525

W, 7-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14581509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14491523

L, 1-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14891519

L, 3-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14611548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14951526

W, 3-1

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14581550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating14661548

L, 8-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14611486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15031488

W, 6-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14731459

L, 6-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14621485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14981506

W, 6-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14591488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating14931462

vs. Twins

L, 7-5

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14611479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating14741473

L, 6-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14631477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15041460

L, 5-2

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14651484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14531525

L, 10-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14851480

L, 12-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14791518

L, 5-2

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14591564

L, 2-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-40
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14871493

L, 6-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14671542

L, 1-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+20
Adjusted team rating14881494

vs. Giants

W, 2-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15051546

L, 2-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-42
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating14881474

vs. Angels

W, 1-0

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091491

W, 3-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14911514

W, 7-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15071487

W, 3-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14971475

L, 8-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating14901494

L, 2-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15071478

L, 5-4

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14701576

W, 7-3

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861587

W, 5-1

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14661565

L, 5-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14621502

L, 9-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+120
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating14871504

L, 7-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14871530

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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