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UPDATED 1:07 AM EDT | Mar 28, 2017

2016-17 NBA Predictions

Based on “CARM-Elo,” a mix of team Elo ratings and our CARMELO player projections. Updated after every game.

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Games on Mar. 28, 2017

Away team
MILMINMIAPHIPHXGSDENWSHXXXXXX
Pre-game win probabilities
Pre-game CARM-Elo point spread
39%
36%
58%
-2
47%
24%
55%
-1
30%
73%
-6
-
-
-
-
-
-
61%
-3
64%
-3.5
42%
53%
-1
76%
-7
45%
70%
-5
27%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home team
CHAINDDETBKNATLHOUPORLALXXXXXX
*If necessary
GameAway
Pre-game probabilities
Pre-game
CARM-Elo spread
Home
MIL
39%
 
61%
-3
CHA
 
MIN
36%
 
64%
-3.5
IND
 
MIA
58%
-2
42%
 
DET
 
PHI
47%
 
53%
-1
BKN
 
PHX
24%
 
76%
-7
ATL
 
GS
55%
-1
45%
 
HOU
 
DEN
30%
 
70%
-5
POR
 
WSH
73%
-6
27%
 
LAL
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 

Team-by-team forecast

Forecast from
Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPlayoff Chances
ELOCarm-ELO1-Week ChangeTeamConferenceRecordProj. RecordPoint Diff/GMake PlayoffsMake Play-offsTop SeedWin Title
17491776
+13
Warriors59-14West66-16+11.588%48%
17121707
+17
Spurs57-16West63-19+7.912%21%
16381640
+9
Rockets51-22West57-25+6.6<1%6%
16051613
+8
Celtics48-26East54-28+3.167%7%
16031599
+21
Wizards45-28East50-32+2.3<1%4%
15831595
+5
Clippers44-31West49-33+3.72%
15871593
+34
Raptors45-29East50-32+4.32%4%
15751568
-2
Jazz45-29West49-33+3.3>99%2%
15721565
+5
Thunder42-31West47-35+1.0>99%1%
15641556
-23
Cavaliers47-26East52-30+3.231%2%
15501552
+11
Trail Blazers35-38West40-42-0.684%<1%
15441527
-19
Heat35-38East40-42+0.762%<1%
15231525
-21
Grizzlies40-34West45-37+0.9>99%<1%
15061513
+38
Pelicans31-43West35-47-1.7<1%<1%
15031503
+6
Bucks37-36East41-41+0.189%<1%
15231501
-13
Nuggets35-38West38-44-0.115%<1%
14861495
-27
Timberwolves28-44West32-50-1.0<1%<1%
14921486
-9
Pacers37-36East41-41-0.888%<1%
14811485
+13
Bulls35-39East40-42-0.664%<1%
14861480
+3
Hornets33-40East37-45+0.57%<1%
14481447
-17
Mavericks31-42West34-48-2.6<1%<1%
14331421
-31
Hawks37-36East41-41-1.584%<1%
14031419
+5
76ers27-46East31-51-4.8<1%<1%
14241417
-48
Pistons34-40East37-45-1.66%<1%
13951394
-4
Kings29-45West32-50-3.7<1%<1%
13841390
+5
Knicks28-46East31-51-3.5<1%<1%
13801382
+7
Magic27-47East30-52-5.9<1%<1%
13511349
+46
Nets16-57East19-63-6.9
13251323
-25
Suns22-52West24-58-6.0
13191323
-7
Lakers21-52West23-59-7.6

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