Election 2018

Forecasting the races for governor

Updated Nov. 6, 2018, at 11:06 AM

Our forecast for every race for governor

What share of the national population Democrats and Republicans are expected to govern, based on the most likely winner in each of the 36 gubernatorial elections taking place in 2018 and who controls the 14 seats not up for election.

DemocratRepublican
No electionSolid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid RNo election
No electionSolidLikelyLeanToss-upLeanLikelySolidNo election
≥95%≥75%≥60%<60% both≥60%≥75%≥95%
Third party
Lean thirdLikely thirdSolid third
LeanLikelySolid
≥60%≥75%≥95%

Who's ahead in each race

The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Key

Average

80% chance outcome falls in this range

State

Candidates

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

Comments