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What share of the national population Democrats and Republicans are expected to govern, based on the most likely winner in each of the 36 gubernatorial elections taking place in 2018 and who controls the 14 seats not up for election.
The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
80% chance outcome falls in this range
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …