Election 2018

Forecasting the race for the House

Updated Nov. 6, 2018, at 11:06 AM

# Our forecast for every district

The chance of each candidate winning, with all 435 House districts shown at the same size

Solid D
≥95% D
Likely D
≥75% D
Lean D
≥60% D
Toss-up
<60% both
Lean R
≥60% R
Likely R
≥75% R
Solid R
≥95% R
Party flip
>50% nonincumbent party
= one district
Dem.
Solid
Likely
Lean
Rep.
≥95%
≥75%
≥60%
Toss-up
<60%
Party flip
>50% nonincumbent party
= one district
District totals by category
Majority

Our latest coverage

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.

Chance of controlling the House

Seats controlled by each party

Popular vote margin

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# How the popular vote for the House translates into seats

How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast

Higher probability arrow pointing to the right

# How the House has swung historically

Our forecasted seat breakdown in the House for 2018 and the change in the breakdown for every House election since 1924

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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