California 10th

Lean D

7 in 10

Chance the Democrat wins (69.1%)

3 in 10

Chance the Republican wins (30.9%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 10th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+3.2

    Adjusted polls

  • R+2.1

    CANTOR

  • D+7.5

    Fundamentals

  • D+0.3

    Experts

  • R+2.6

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+3.6

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+2.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the California 10th

We've collected one poll for the California 10th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Harder
Denham
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jun. 27-Jul. 1
6/27-7/1
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
D
501LV
0.69
48%48%EVEN 0.6 4.1 R+3.2

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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