California 22nd

Likely R

1 in 20

Chance the Democrat wins (5.5%)

19 in 20

Chance the Republican wins (94.5%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 22nd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+8.7

    Adjusted polls

  • R+10.7

    CANTOR

  • R+13.7

    Fundamentals

  • R+18.3

    Experts

  • R+9.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+11.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+13.9

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the California 22nd

We've collected four polls for the California 22nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Janz
Nunes
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 10-13
9/10-13
Strategies 360
D
402LV
0.60
44%50%R+6.0 <0.1 2.3 R+8.3
Jul. 22-25
7/22-25
Tulchin Research
D
400LV
0.13
43%48%R+5.0 0.5 5.2 R+9.5
Jul. 12-17
7/12-17
Strategies 360
D
500LV
0.02
41%53%R+12.0 0.6 2.3 R+13.5
Jun. 22-24
6/22-24
Public Policy Polling
D
632LV
0.07
41%49%R+8.0 0.7 1.6 R+8.7

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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