California 24th

Solid D

49 in 50

Chance the Democrat wins (97.8%)

1 in 50

Chance the Republican wins (2.2%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 24th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+5.9

    Adjusted polls

  • D+20.8

    CANTOR

  • D+20.4

    Fundamentals

  • D+20.7

    Experts

  • D+15.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+16.6

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+18.0

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the California 24th

We've collected one poll for the California 24th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Carbajal
Fareed
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jul. 12-15
7/12-15
Olive Tree Strategies
R
404LV
0.51
47%46%D+1.0 0.5 4.2 D+5.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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