California 25th

Likely D

5 in 6

Chance the Democrat wins (81.9%)

1 in 6

Chance the Republican wins (18.1%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 25th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+2.0

    Adjusted polls

  • R+1.7

    CANTOR

  • D+9.7

    Fundamentals

  • D+0.4

    Experts

  • D+0.0

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+6.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+4.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the California 25th

We've collected four polls for the California 25th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Hill
Knight
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 17-18
9/17-18
Siena College205LV
0.49
47%44%D+3.1 0.1 0.8 D+3.9
Jul. 9-12
7/9-12
IMGE Insights400RV
0.15
47%47%EVEN 0.5 0.6 1.9 D+2.2
Jun. 11-21
6/11-21
Global Strategy Group
D
400LV
0.10
40%45%R+5.0 0.8 2.3 R+6.3
Jan. 24-28
1/24-28
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates
D
650LV
0.01
53%40%D+13.0 0.3 7.3 D+6.1

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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