California 39th

Lean R

1 in 3

Chance the Democrat wins (33.3%)

2 in 3

Chance the Republican wins (66.7%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 39th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+5.2

    Adjusted polls

  • D+5.5

    CANTOR

  • R+1.9

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.9

    Experts

  • R+0.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+3.1

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+1.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the California 39th

We've collected four polls for the California 39th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Cisneros
Kim
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 13-16
9/13-16
Monmouth University300LV
0.74
41%51%R+10.0 <0.1 1.3 R+11.3
Aug. 1-6
8/1-6
Tulchin Research
D
600LV
0.32
53%42%D+11.0 0.5 5.3 D+6.4
Jun. 10
6/10
DCCC Targeting Team
D
536LV
0.08
43%45%R+2.0 0.8 3.3 R+4.3
Jan. 10-11
1/10-11
Remington Research Group761LV
0.01
38%41%R+3.0 0.2 2.6 R+0.2

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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