California 45th

Toss-up

3 in 5

Chance the Democrat wins (58.9%)

2 in 5

Chance the Republican wins (41.2%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 45th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+1.7

    Adjusted polls

  • R+3.3

    CANTOR

  • D+4.9

    Fundamentals

  • R+0.3

    Experts

  • R+2.4

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+1.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+1.0

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the California 45th

We've collected four polls for the California 45th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Porter
Walters
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug. 10-14
8/10-14
Tulchin Research
D
500LV
0.65
49%46%D+3.0 0.5 5.3 R+1.7
Jul. 26-31
7/26-31
Global Strategy Group
D
500LV
0.42
44%45%R+1.0 0.6 2.3 R+2.5
May 10-12
5/10-12
Public Policy Polling
D
599LV
0.07
46%43%D+3.0 0.9 1.7 D+2.5
Feb. 20-21
2/20-21
Public Policy Polling
D
648RV
0.00
46%44%D+2.0 0.5 0.5 1.7 D+0.5

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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