California 49th

Solid D

29 in 30

Chance the Democrat wins (96.0%)

1 in 30

Chance the Republican wins (4.0%)

See the national overview

Forecasted turnout

Partisan lean

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.

Chance of winning

Popular vote share

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# What goes into the

classic forecast in the California 49th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

D+9.8
Adjusted polls
D+5.9
CANTOR
D+12.5
Fundamentals
D+10.7
Experts

D+9.8

Lite
D+10.5

Classic
D+10.6

Deluxe

<0.1
<0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected seven polls for the California 49th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

								Adjustments
dates	pollster	sample		weight	Levin	Harkey	margin	likely voter	Time-line	House effects	Adjusted margin
Oct. 29-Nov. 1 10/29-11/1	SurveyUSA	500	LV	1.79	51%	44%	D+7.0	—	<0.1	0.1	D+6.9
Oct. 19-24 10/19-24	Siena College/New York Times	500	LV	1.01	53%	39%	D+14.7	—	<0.1	0.3	D+14.5
Sep. 18-23 9/18-23	Siena College/New York Times	507	LV	0.05	51%	41%	D+9.7	—	0.1	0.3	D+9.3
Sep. 16-23 9/16-23	UC Berkeley	551	LV	0.15	55%	41%	D+14.0	—	0.1	2.1	D+11.8
Sep. 17-20 9/17-20	Public Opinion Strategies R	400	LV	0.12	45%	43%	D+2.0	—	0.1	4.7	D+6.6
Jul. 15-17 7/15-17	Public Opinion Strategies R	400	LV	0.00	43%	46%	R+3.0	—	0.5	4.7	D+2.2
Jun. 24-27 6/24-27	Feldman Group D	400	LV	0.00	44%	41%	D+3.0	—	0.7	0.9	D+2.8

Weighted averageD+9.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

= partisan poll

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the California 49th

	Sim. score	Polling avg.
CO-6	69	D+8.4
CA-48	69	R+1.5
CA-25	57	R+3.7
CA-52	57	—
AZ-6	57	R+14.3
NV-3	56	D+9.4
CA-39	55	R+1.2
CO-7	55	—
CA-24	55	D+5.8
AZ-9	53	—

#The “fundamentals”

The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.

Factor	Impact	Explanation
District partisanship	0.6	CA-49 is 1.1 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Clinton in 2016 and Romney in 2012.
Previous incumbent's margin in last election	0.0	A Republican won by 0.5 percentage points in this district in 2016. Previous district results are not strongly predictive in races without incumbents.
Generic ballot	5.1	Democrats lead by an average of 8.6 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot.
Fundraising	2.7	As of Oct. 17, Mike Levin had raised $4,485,000 in individual contributions (80% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Diane L. Harkey had raised $1,130,000 (20%).
Candidate experience	1.5	Harkey has held elected office before but Levin hasn't.
Scandals	0.0	Neither candidate is involved in a scandal.
Top-two primary margin	6.7	Democrats won the aggregate vote by 3.0 percentage points in the June primary. However, turnout patterns can differ in the general election, so the model compares the primary result to others in California. On that basis, it treats the primary result as equivalent to a 16.6-point win for Democrats.
Total	D+12.5

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

		Equivalent Margin
Expert	Rating	Raw	Adjusted
Cook Political Report	Likely D	D+12.1	D+12.7
Inside Elections	Lean D	D+6.7	D+7.6
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	D+12.1	D+11.7
Average		D+10.3	D+10.7

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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