California 49th

Likely D

5 in 6

Chance the Democrat wins (83.7%)

1 in 6

Chance the Republican wins (16.3%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 49th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+0.9

    Adjusted polls

  • D+4.4

    CANTOR

  • D+12.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+7.8

    Experts

  • D+2.6

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+7.4

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+7.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the California 49th

We've collected two polls for the California 49th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Levin
Harkey
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jul. 15-17
7/15-17
Public Opinion Strategies
R
400LV
0.59
43%46%R+3.0 0.5 3.3 D+1.1
Jun. 24-27
6/24-27
Feldman Group
D
400LV
0.33
44%41%D+3.0 0.6 3.3 D+0.5

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

Comments