California 50th

Likely R

1 in 6

Chance the Democrat wins (17.1%)

5 in 6

Chance the Republican wins (82.9%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 50th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+6.8

    Adjusted polls

  • R+13.0

    CANTOR

  • R+5.1

    Fundamentals

  • R+6.7

    Experts

  • R+8.0

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+6.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+6.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the California 50th

We've collected three polls for the California 50th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Campa-Najjar
Hunter
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug. 27-30
8/27-30
Tulchin Research
D
400LV
0.54
46%46%EVEN 0.1 5.0 R+4.9
Aug. 22-26
8/22-26
SurveyUSA539LV
1.00
39%47%R+8.0 0.2 0.5 R+7.3
Jul. 17-23
7/17-23
Tulchin Research
D
400LV
0.06
42%51%R+9.0 0.5 5.0 R+13.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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