Florida 26th

Toss-up

4 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (45.3%)

5 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (54.7%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Florida 26th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+4.1

    Adjusted polls

  • D+4.0

    CANTOR

  • D+2.2

    Fundamentals

  • R+4.0

    Experts

  • R+1.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+0.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+1.9

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Florida 26th

We've collected three polls for the Florida 26th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Mucarsel-Powell
Curbelo
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 13-17
9/13-17
Siena College509LV
1.14
44%47%R+3.5 <0.1 0.8 R+2.7
Jul. 16-22
7/16-22
GBA Strategies
D
500LV
0.29
41%48%R+7.0 0.7 2.2 R+8.2
Mar. 17-22
3/17-22
DCCC Targeting Team
D
400RV
0.03
40%45%R+5.0 0.5 1.0 3.3 R+7.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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