Florida 27th

Likely D

6 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (85.0%)

1 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (15.0%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Florida 27th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+2.3

    Adjusted polls

  • D+10.3

    CANTOR

  • D+19.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+6.3

    Experts

  • D+3.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+9.3

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+8.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Florida 27th

We've collected two polls for the Florida 27th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Shalala
Salazar
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 10-13
9/10-13
McLaughlin & Associates
R
400LV
0.52
42%51%R+9.0 <0.1 5.1 R+3.9
Sep. 1-4
9/1-4
Bendixen & Amandi International
D
600LV
0.59
46%42%D+4.0 0.1 5.1 R+1.0

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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