Illinois 12th

Toss-up

3 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (43.1%)

4 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (56.9%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Illinois 12th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+2.0

    Adjusted polls

  • R+6.9

    CANTOR

  • D+0.3

    Fundamentals

  • D+0.3

    Experts

  • R+3.5

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+1.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+0.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Illinois 12th

We've collected two polls for the Illinois 12th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Kelly
Bost
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 4-6
9/4-6
Siena College533LV
1.10
43%44%R+1.0 <0.1 0.2 R+0.8
Apr. 16-17
4/16-17
Public Policy Polling
D
622V
0.29
39%44%R+5.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 R+5.5

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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