Iowa 3rd

Toss-up

4 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (45.9%)

5 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (54.1%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Iowa 3rd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+7.0

    Adjusted polls

  • R+0.4

    CANTOR

  • D+5.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.8

    Experts

  • R+4.4

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+0.8

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+0.1

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Iowa 3rd

We've collected three polls for the Iowa 3rd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Axne
Young
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 6-8
9/6-8
Emerson College260RV
0.49
31%47%R+16.0 0.6 <0.1 1.2 R+17.8
Sep. 4-5
9/4-5
DCCC Targeting Team
D
575LV
0.63
46%43%D+3.0 <0.1 3.4 R+0.4
Jul. 8-12
7/8-12
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
D
500LV
0.11
45%41%D+4.0 0.5 3.4 D+1.3

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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