Iowa 4th

Likely R

1 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (11.8%)

8 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (88.2%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Iowa 4th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+11.5

    Adjusted polls

  • R+12.0

    CANTOR

  • R+6.3

    Fundamentals

  • R+10.2

    Experts

  • R+11.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+8.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+9.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Iowa 4th

We've collected two polls for the Iowa 4th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Scholten
King
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 5-9
9/5-9
Expedition Strategies
D
380LV
0.59
37%43%R+6.0 <0.1 5.3 R+11.3
Sep. 6-8
9/6-8
Emerson College240RV
0.46
31%41%R+10.0 0.5 <0.1 1.2 R+11.7

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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