Kentucky 6th

Lean R

2 in 5

Chance the Democrat wins (39.2%)

3 in 5

Chance the Republican wins (60.8%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Kentucky 6th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+0.6

    Adjusted polls

  • R+5.2

    CANTOR

  • R+2.8

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.8

    Experts

  • R+1.0

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+1.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+0.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Kentucky 6th

We've collected six polls for the Kentucky 6th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
McGrath
Barr
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 6-8
9/6-8
Siena College506LV
1.11
46%47%R+1.0 <0.1 0.2 R+0.8
Sep. 4-6
9/4-6
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
R
400LV
0.56
45%49%R+4.0 <0.1 1.8 R+2.2
Jul. 7-10
7/7-10
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
D
461LV
0.13
50%43%D+7.0 0.5 4.0 D+3.6
Jun. 6-7
6/6-7
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
R
400LV
0.00
51%38%D+13.0 0.7 1.8 D+15.7
Apr. 30-May 2
4/30-5/2
DCCC Targeting Team
D
508LV
0.02
52%37%D+15.0 0.8 3.4 D+12.7
Feb. 5-7
2/5-7
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
D
401LV
0.00
44%48%R+4.0 0.3 4.0 R+7.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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