Maine 2nd

We've collected seven polls for the Maine 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

								Adjustments
dates	pollster	sample		weight	Golden	Poliquin	margin	likely voter	Time-line	House effects	Adjusted margin
Oct. 27-29 10/27-29	Emerson College	441	LV	1.38	47%	46%	D+1.1	—	<0.1	0.6	D+1.7
Oct. 15-18 10/15-18	Siena College/New York Times	501	LV	0.89	41%	41%	D+0.1	—	<0.1	0.3	R+0.2
Oct. 9-12 10/9-12	Global Strategy Group D	400	LV	0.35	48%	42%	D+6.0	—	<0.1	1.9	D+4.0
Oct. 1-7 10/1-7	Pan Atlantic SMS Group	251	LV	0.22	37%	37%	R+0.5	—	<0.1	1.1	R+1.6
Sep. 12-14 9/12-14	Siena College/New York Times	506	LV	0.04	42%	47%	R+5.7	—	0.1	0.3	R+6.1
Sep. 4-7 9/4-7	Mellman Group D	400	RV	0.06	54%	46%	D+8.0	0.2	0.1	3.0	D+4.7
Jul. 25-30 7/25-30	Mellman Group D	400	LV	0.00	46%	46%	EVEN	—	0.6	3.0	R+2.3

Weighted averageD+1.1

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R

D

= partisan poll