Maine 2nd

Lean R

3 in 8

Chance the Democrat wins (38.5%)

5 in 8

Chance the Republican wins (61.5%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Maine 2nd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+3.1

    Adjusted polls

  • R+2.7

    CANTOR

  • R+0.6

    Fundamentals

  • D+0.3

    Experts

  • R+3.0

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+2.0

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+1.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Maine 2nd

We've collected three polls for the Maine 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Golden
Poliquin
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 12-14
9/12-14
Siena College506LV
1.16
42%47%R+5.7 <0.1 0.2 R+5.5
Sep. 4-7
9/4-7
Mellman Group
D
400RV
0.43
54%46%D+8.0 0.6 <0.1 4.0 D+3.3
Jul. 25-30
7/25-30
Mellman Group
D
400LV
0.05
46%46%EVEN 0.5 4.0 R+3.3

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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