Minnesota 3rd

Likely D

6 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (84.9%)

1 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (15.1%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Minnesota 3rd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+10.2

    Adjusted polls

  • D+3.6

    CANTOR

  • D+3.8

    Fundamentals

  • D+4.9

    Experts

  • D+8.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+7.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+6.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Minnesota 3rd

We've collected four polls for the Minnesota 3rd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Phillips
Paulsen
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 17-18
9/17-18
Public Policy Polling
D
538V
0.79
52%39%D+13.0 0.2 <0.1 1.5 D+11.2
Sep. 7-9
9/7-9
Siena College500LV
0.84
51%42%D+9.0 <0.1 0.2 D+9.2
Feb. 12-13
2/12-13
Public Policy Polling
D
664V
0.00
46%43%D+3.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 D+1.8
Nov. 9-10
11/9-10
Public Policy Polling
D
542V
0.00
46%42%D+4.0 0.2 0.2 1.5 D+1.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

Comments