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14 in 15
Chance the Democrat wins (93.4%)
1 in 15
Chance the Republican wins (6.6%)
Chance of winning
Popular vote share
We've collected one poll for the Minnesota 7th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
|Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
= partisan poll
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#Similar districts and CANTOR
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Districts most similar to the Minnesota 7th
|SD at large
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
|Collin Peterson has been elected to 14 terms. Congress has only a 20.1% approval rating, reducing the incumbency advantage.
|MN-7 is 25.3 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Trump in 2016 and Romney in 2012.
|Incumbent's margin in last election
|Peterson won by 5.0 percentage points in 2016.
|Democrats lead by an average of 8.6 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot.
|As of Oct. 17, Peterson had raised $273,000 in individual contributions (64% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Dave Hughes had raised $152,000 (36%).
|Incumbent's voting record in Congress
|Peterson has voted with Democrats 61% of the time in roll-call votes in recent sessions of Congress. Candidates who break with their party more often tend to overperform at the ballot booth, other factors held equal.
|Hughes has never held elected office.
|Neither candidate is involved in a scandal.
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
|Cook Political Report
|Sabato's Crystal Ball
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …