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>99 in 100
Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)
<1 in 100
Chance an independent candidate wins (<0.1%)
We've collected one poll for the Mississippi 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
|margin||likely voter||Time-line||House effects||Adjusted margin|
|Triumph Campaigns||525||LV|| |
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
= partisan poll
Our latest coverage
Detailed fundamentals calculations are not available for the Mississippi 2nd.
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
|Cook Political Report||D+53.3||D+54.7|
|Sabato's Crystal Ball||D+53.3||D+54.5|
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …