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>99 in 100
Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)
<1 in 100
Chance an independent candidate wins (<0.1%)
Chance of winning
Popular vote share
We've collected one poll for the Mississippi 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
|margin||likely voter||Time-line||House effects||Adjusted margin|
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
= partisan poll
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#Similar districts and CANTOR
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Districts most similar to the Mississippi 2nd
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
Detailed fundamentals calculations are not available for the Mississippi 2nd.
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …