Mississippi 2nd

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance an independent candidate wins (<0.1%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Mississippi 2nd

The Classic version of our model normally projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used.

  • D+28.5

    Adjusted polls

  • CANTOR

  • D+67.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+53.3

    Experts

  • D+28.5

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+53.3

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+53.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected one poll for the Mississippi 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Thompson
Harris
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jul. 30-31
7/30-31
Triumph Campaigns525LV
0.72
51%22%D+28.5D+28.5
Weighted averageD+28.5

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

#The “fundamentals”

Detailed fundamentals calculations are not available for the Mississippi 2nd.

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
ExpertRatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Solid D
D+53.3D+54.7
Inside Elections
Solid D
D+53.3D+55.7
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
D+53.3D+54.5
AverageD+53.3D+54.9

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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