Mississippi 2nd - 2018 House Forecast

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance an independent candidate wins (<0.1%)

Forecasted turnout

Partisan lean

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.

Chance of winning

Popular vote share

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# What goes into the

classic forecast in the Mississippi 2nd

The Classic version of our model normally projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used.

D+28.5
Adjusted polls
—
CANTOR
D+68.1
Fundamentals
D+53.9
Experts

D+28.5

Lite
D+53.9

Classic
D+53.9

Deluxe

—
—

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected one poll for the Mississippi 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

								Adjustments
dates	pollster	sample		weight	Thompson	Harris	margin	likely voter	Time-line	House effects	Adjusted margin
Jul. 30-31 7/30-31	Triumph Campaigns	525	LV	0.72	51%	22%	D+28.5	—	—	—	D+28.5

Weighted averageD+28.5

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R

D

= partisan poll

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the Mississippi 2nd

	Sim. score	Polling avg.
AL-7	71	—
SC-6	68	—
GA-2	52	—
NC-1	51	—
FL-5	44	—
TN-9	36	—
GA-13	35	—
LA-2	31	—
VA-3	23	—
GA-4	23	—

#The “fundamentals”

Detailed fundamentals calculations are not available for the Mississippi 2nd.

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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