Montana at large

Lean R

2 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (27.0%)

5 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (73.0%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Montana

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+8.3

    Adjusted polls

  • R+10.0

    CANTOR

  • R+10.9

    Fundamentals

  • R+6.7

    Experts

  • R+2.4

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+5.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+5.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Montana

We've collected one poll for Montana. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Williams
Gianforte
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jun. 11-13
6/11-13
Gravis Marketing469LV
0.60
49%43%D+6.0 0.7 1.3 D+8.3

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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