Nevada 4th

Likely D

7 in 8

Chance the Democrat wins (87.0%)

1 in 8

Chance the Republican wins (13.0%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Nevada 4th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+6.3

    Adjusted polls

  • D+6.4

    CANTOR

  • D+10.7

    Fundamentals

  • D+12.0

    Experts

  • D+6.4

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+8.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+9.8

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Nevada 4th

We've collected three polls for the Nevada 4th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Horsford
Hardy
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug. 4-7
8/4-7
Moore Information
R
400LV
0.57
41%41%EVEN 0.6 4.4 D+5.2
Jul. 17-22
7/17-22
Global Strategy Group
D
500LV
0.39
46%36%D+9.5 0.6 2.3 D+8.0
Jan. 5-9
1/5-9
DCCC Targeting Team
D
400RV
0.00
42%37%D+5.0 0.5 <0.1 3.2 D+1.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

Comments