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Chance the Democrat wins (85.4%)
Chance the Republican wins (14.6%)
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
D+8.0
Adjusted polls
D+4.9
CANTOR
D+6.2
Fundamentals
D+7.1
Experts
D+8.0
Lite
D+7.3
Classic
D+7.2
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
We've collected five polls for the New Jersey 11th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
Adjustments | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dates | pollster | sample | weight |
Sherrill
|
Webber
|
margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Oct. 13-17
10/13-17
|
Siena College/New York Times | 487 | LV |
1.42
|
49% | 38% | D+10.4 | — | ![]() |
0.3 ![]() |
D+10.2 |
Oct. 3-7
10/3-7
|
Monmouth University | 356 | LV |
0.71
|
49% | 44% | D+4.7 | — | <0.1 ![]() |
0.2 ![]() |
D+4.5 |
Sep. 24-27
9/24-27
|
National Research, Inc.
R
|
400 | LV |
0.37
|
46% | 43% | D+3.0 | — | 0.1 ![]() |
![]() |
D+7.4 |
Jul. 18-22
7/18-22
|
National Research, Inc.
R
|
400 | LV |
0.00
|
42% | 36% | D+6.0 | — | ![]() |
![]() |
D+11.1 |
Jun. 22-25
6/22-25
|
Monmouth University | 339 | LV |
0.00
|
45% | 39% | D+5.3 | — | ![]() |
0.2 ![]() |
D+5.9 |
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
= partisan poll
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
---|---|---|---|
1 | NJ-7 | 83 | D+5.4 |
2 | NY-3 | 75 | — |
3 | NJ-5 | 72 | D+12.0 |
4 | NY-1 | 61 | R+11.7 |
5 | NJ-4 | 57 | — |
6 | NY-4 | 54 | — |
7 | IL-6 | 53 | D+1.0 |
8 | NJ-3 | 51 | D+0.9 |
9 | MA-6 | 51 | — |
10 | NY-2 | 49 | — |
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
Factor | Impact | Explanation |
---|---|---|
District partisanship |
3.6
|
NJ-11 is 4.5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Trump in 2016 and Romney in 2012. |
Previous incumbent's margin in last election |
1.1
|
A Republican won by 19.1 percentage points in this district in 2016. Previous district results are not strongly predictive in races without incumbents. |
Generic ballot |
8.3
|
Democrats lead by an average of 8.6 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot. |
Fundraising |
5.1
|
As of Oct. 17, Mikie Sherrill had raised $5,962,000 in individual contributions (84% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Jay Webber had raised $1,135,000 (16%). |
Candidate experience |
2.5
|
Webber has held elected office before but Sherrill hasn't. |
Scandals |
0.0
|
Neither candidate is involved in a scandal. |
Total |
D+6.2
|
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
Equivalent Margin | |||
---|---|---|---|
Expert | Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
Cook Political Report | D+6.7 | D+7.4 | |
Inside Elections | D+6.7 | D+7.6 | |
Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+6.7 | D+6.3 | |
Average | D+6.7 | D+7.1 |
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …
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