New Jersey 11th

Likely D

7 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (76.7%)

2 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (23.3%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the New Jersey 11th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+4.8

    Adjusted polls

  • D+3.7

    CANTOR

  • D+6.4

    Fundamentals

  • D+7.7

    Experts

  • D+4.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+5.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+6.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the New Jersey 11th

We've collected one poll for the New Jersey 11th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Sherrill
Webber
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jun. 22-25
6/22-25
Monmouth University339LV
0.66
45%39%D+5.3 0.7 1.3 D+4.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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