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Chance the Democrat wins (54.9%)
Chance the Republican wins (45.1%)
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
We've collected 11 polls for the New Jersey 3rd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
|margin||likely voter||Time-line||House effects||Adjusted margin|
|Siena College/New York Times||508||LV|
|National Research, Inc.|
|Siena College/New York Times||499||LV|
|DCCC Targeting Team|
|Global Strategy Group|
May 29-Jun. 3
|Greenberg Quinlan Rosner|
|Public Policy Polling|
|Public Policy Polling|
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
= partisan poll
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
|Tom MacArthur has been elected to 2 terms. Congress has only a 20.1% approval rating, reducing the incumbency advantage.|
|NJ-3 is 4.6 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012.|
|Incumbent's margin in last election|
|MacArthur won by 20.4 percentage points in 2016.|
|Democrats lead by an average of 8.6 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot.|
|As of Oct. 17, Andy Kim had raised $4,198,000 in individual contributions (78% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); MacArthur had raised $1,177,000 (22%).|
|Incumbent's voting record in Congress|
|MacArthur has voted with Republicans 76% of the time in roll-call votes in recent sessions of Congress.|
|Kim has never held elected office.|
|Neither candidate is involved in a scandal.|
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
|Cook Political Report||EVEN||D+0.6|
|Sabato's Crystal Ball||D+6.7||D+6.3|
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …