New Jersey 3rd

Toss-up

3 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (43.5%)

4 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (56.5%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the New Jersey 3rd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+0.7

    Adjusted polls

  • R+1.9

    CANTOR

  • R+1.2

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.8

    Experts

  • R+1.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+1.0

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+0.1

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the New Jersey 3rd

We've collected six polls for the New Jersey 3rd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Kim
MacArthur
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 4-5
9/4-5
DCCC Targeting Team
D
523LV
0.63
47%45%D+2.0 <0.1 3.4 R+1.4
Aug. 7-9
8/7-9
Monmouth University300LV
0.30
46%44%D+2.0 0.4 1.4 D+1.2
Jun. 11-21
6/11-21
Global Strategy Group
D
400LV
0.05
42%42%EVEN 0.7 2.1 R+1.2
May 29-Jun. 3
5/29-6/3
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps)
D
550LV
0.04
44%48%R+4.0 0.7 1.3 R+4.4
Apr. 16-17
4/16-17
Public Policy Polling
D
669V
0.01
41%42%R+1.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 R+1.7
Feb. 14-15
2/14-15
Public Policy Polling
D
336V
0.00
43%47%R+4.0 0.3 0.4 1.5 R+5.3

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

Comments