New Jersey 7th

Lean D

3 in 5

Chance the Democrat wins (60.3%)

2 in 5

Chance the Republican wins (39.7%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the New Jersey 7th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+0.8

    Adjusted polls

  • R+1.2

    CANTOR

  • D+4.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+0.4

    Experts

  • D+0.8

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+1.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+1.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the New Jersey 7th

We've collected three polls for the New Jersey 7th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Malinowski
Lance
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 17-21
9/17-21
Siena College504LV
1.19
44%45%R+1.0 <0.1 0.2 R+0.8
Sep. 13-17
9/13-17
Monmouth University365LV
0.81
47%42%D+4.5 <0.1 1.4 D+3.1
Jun. 20-25
6/20-25
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps)
D
500LV
0.04
47%45%D+2.0 0.7 1.3 D+1.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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