New Mexico 2nd

We've collected nine polls for the New Mexico 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

								Adjustments
dates	pollster	sample		weight	Small	Herrell	margin	likely voter	Time-line	House effects	Adjusted margin
Oct. 26-Nov. 1 10/26-11/1	Research & Polling, Inc.	413	LV	1.41	45%	46%	R+1.0	—	<0.1	0.2	R+1.1
Oct. 29 10/29	Carroll Strategies	338	LV	0.94	42%	47%	R+5.0	—	<0.1	1.4	R+3.6
Oct. 24-26 10/24-26	Emerson College	278	LV	0.75	47%	47%	D+0.4	—	<0.1	0.6	D+1.0
Oct. 19-23 10/19-23	Siena College/New York Times	522	LV	1.11	44%	45%	R+0.1	—	<0.1	0.3	R+0.3
Sep. 30-Oct. 2 9/30-10/2	Tarrance Group R	400	LV	0.23	45%	49%	R+4.0	—	<0.1	4.6	D+0.6
Sep. 13-18 9/13-18	Siena College/New York Times	503	LV	0.04	46%	45%	D+0.7	—	0.1	0.3	D+0.3
Sep. 7-13 9/7-13	Research & Polling, Inc.	405	LV	0.01	41%	48%	R+7.0	—	0.2	0.2	R+7.3
Jun. 15-16 6/15-16	Carroll Strategies	334	LV	0.00	35%	49%	R+13.8	—	1.0	1.4	R+11.4
Jun. 6-11 6/6-11	DCCC Targeting Team D	456	RV	0.00	43%	45%	R+2.0	0.2	1.0	2.9	R+4.1

Weighted averageR+0.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R

D

= partisan poll