New Mexico 3rd

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (<0.1%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the New Mexico 3rd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+31.4

    Adjusted polls

  • D+22.3

    CANTOR

  • D+33.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+33.8

    Experts

  • D+26.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+31.8

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+32.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the New Mexico 3rd

We've collected one poll for the New Mexico 3rd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Lujan
McFall
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jun. 15-16
6/15-16
Carroll Strategies446LV
0.58
58%30%D+28.1 0.7 2.4 D+31.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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